I think this is going to be a boring Day. They seem inclined to kill zuma because it’s a safe move, and I think they’ll throw a lot of chatter around without it really going anywhere but toward a zuma. The actual endgame starts immediately thereafter.
I think Pleonast’s list in #3613 is very interesting:
By process of elimination from the rest of the list, one of these people is the Avatar, assuming the town can fully trust MHaye. Place yer bets here!
zuma could be the avatar too.
You’re quite right. MHaye didn’t investigae zuma, did he?
Bad-guy counts: 2 eliminated, 1 99.999999% confirmed. The Prophet is somewhere, and 1 to 3 others (although 3 is unlikely). There are 3 fully unknowns and 2 non-Avatars; at least 1 of them is scum, possibly 2. Who do you think it is?
Yeah, that outcome seems likely. But I think sachertorte is on the right track: the known Cultist should be kept alive, if only to give **HockeyMonkey **a chance to block.
Although there is a big chance she or MHaye have been recruited.
I so want the town to dunk NAF. I posted so yesterday. I also want the town to be critical of Queuing. Look at the point I made that lead to Queuing’s outburst and my quitting. Queuing said he wanted MHaye, me, and Cookies to vote for Idle, so that there would be a better chance of getting at least one scum. It totally doesn’t make sense.
Although, it makes so little sense I can’t see scum saying that either. Either way, I wouldn’t mind seeing Queuing go down.
As for Kyrie. I was very wary of a Kyrie dunk because Queuing was pushing really hard for it and pushing hard for definitive actions based on Kyrie’s alignment. Town can’t know Kyrie’s alignment, but scum can. If Kyrie gets dunked and turns up believer, then I’d be even more critical of Queuing. Although, Queuing’s willingness to continue with a Kyrie dunk today, knowing that Cookies and I are Monks makes it look less bad for Q.
NAF? scum
Queuing? possibly scum
Kyrie? maybe scum
USCDiver? probably not scum, and I’d be pissed if he is.
PygmyRugger? game broken if original scum
I think all the discussion about recruitment and Prophet are distracting. Get the original scum first. If you happen upon a recruit, great! If you happen upon the Prophet, great! But to focus on them is not all that helpful.
I think a recruitment of Hockey Monkey at this point makes sense. It removes a significant night blocker (about 20% chance of blocking night kills when targeting zuma, only to go up as more scum are found), and the town will avoid losing Hockey Monkey for the same reason. They can’t recruit the Disciple, so that leaves Hockey Monkey. MHaye makes a good choice too, but he has to die in this game.
I’m a bit worried about MHaye. The two no reads look awfully suspicious. He hasn’t said anything contradictory yet, but I question his choices in investigation - specifically Pleonast. It’s helping the town, sort of, but I don’t know why he ‘wasted’ a read on someone who roleclaimed. His read on me isn’t as bad as I hadn’t roleclaimed at the time, but I was hoping Hal’s breadcrumb would have dissuaded MHaye from investigating me. When MHaye dies, and he has to one way or another, that will indicate a bit more about FCOD.
I just have to say, even though MHaye says he didn’t get a result, and there was no kill… last Night was possibly one of the best to watch, simply because every role had a very real chance of affecting the outcome of the game. 
Also, I think the Disciple should consider protecting herself or Cookies. Abandoning MHaye, may not be as terrible as one might think. Keeping the confirmed town alive, especially unrecruitable town, seems more important to me.
CatinaSuit could have protected herself, Hockey Monkey, or MHaye. If I were scum, I’d strongly consider recruiting someone else.
There’s what, 12 people left? 5 pro-town roleclaims, likely 2 or 3 original scum. That leaves 4 +/- 1 people as good recruit targets.
Someone said in-game that they had no read on USCDiver this late in the game. Either the poster is scum, or USCDiver is under the radar and so a good option for recruiting.
Additionally, I doubt Pleonast is a good candidate for recruitment, since no one but him and Blaster Master actually knows what his role does. The cultist would probably avoid him on the off-chance that he is unrecruitable as well.
Strange as it sounds, but I agree with this. I can’t see the cult targetting MHaye anytime soon, because it leaves uncertainty about if he’s the Apprentice and if the Apprentice was recruited. Also, it allows him the opportunity to expand the “confirmed” pool which could very well include, or eventually include, the prophet and a potential convert (possibly even including MHaye himself).
That is, sure he’ll give a confirmed Avatar IF he finds him, but he’ll only find Non-Believers (which may include pro-town players) and there’s a possibility for two Believers to be found by him. Combine that with a 30% failure rate, and his information isn’t very useful, and potentially detrimental to the town (if too much faith is placed in his results).
I guess it will give nothing away if I say that I was about 60% sure that USCDiver was the Apprentice until SCL got offed, and absolutely, 100% positive that he was for two Days after that. Consequently, I protected him on Nights 4 through 6. If he’s scum, I’m going to feel even stupider than I already do (and since SCL would have been my second choice to protect on Night 4, I feel pretty darned stupid).
So Sachertorte, how did you like the funny story? I figure you’d enjoy it almost as much as I did.
Enjoy,
Steven
I never got the funny story 
Did I miss something? Why would that be?
PM on its way…
Yeah, dude, you were one of the key players.
Actually, Hal, if you still have it handy - I think that story can probably be posted in here now, can’t it? The only key players were me, Sach, and Mtgman, and we’re all dead and our alignments freely known.
Yeah, I don’t see any problem with posting it at this point.
storyteller’s Funny Story:
by storyteller0910 (Note: The “you” in this tale is Mtgman)
So, early Day 1, I’m guessing you were probably wondering, “why the hell is this guy riding me about nothing?”
Sachertorte is one of the other monks. When I first received the PM listing the monks, I resolved that early in the game, I would do everything I could to distance myself from the others - even to the point of cultivating a feud with one of them, so that if one of us was lynched or night-killed, the others could remain under the radar.
Early on, sachertorte started posting theoretical analysis, and since I feel (though not nearly as strongly as I may seem) that this is a counterproductive line of discussion, I figured I’d go after him. Shortly thereafter, you joined in with your own meta-game discussion, and I engaged you, as well (thinking it would be awfully inconsistent to attack sachertorte and not you).
Well, somehow, in the space of a few posts, I got things totally turned around and started thinking you were the other Monk. As our exchange was getting more and more heated, I was thrilled - “wow,” I thought to myself, “he’s really understanding what I’m trying to do. He’s really doing a good job of pretending to be annoyed with me. No Cultist in the world is going to think we’re linked.”
This went on for most of our exchange. Then I… um… realized you weren’t a Monk. But I had noticed what I thought were inconsistencies in your posts, and things proceeded as they did.
So that’s my story. For most of our in-game fight, I firmly believed that we were both playacting, to hide our association as Monks.
I am an idiot.
That is a funny story.
If it helps any, my name is Stephen too.