A Jack, 8, 6, 4 and a deuce. The kinda hand you fold.
That bar is so low, the reigning all time limbo world champion said “no way, man”. 
I hate to ask this, as it is certain Vance has some extreme right wing followers, but cite? 
6 point win against a strong Democratic candidate. But yes it was a GOP year and Mike DeVine won for governor by 25 points. Then, it isn’t unusual for a red state to elect a Democratic governor. What makes them red is how they vote for federal offices.
If I was still a Republican, I would argue that we need to nominate a moderate like DeVine (who came right out and said that Haitians don’t eat pets). But I don’t think a moderate Republican, lacking ties to Trump, has a chance of getting the nomination. If I am wrong, who would that be?
That would be very hard to find evidence against – or for.
I am most of the way through reading Far-Right France, which is largely about the polling-favored candidate for the next president of France, Marine Le Pen. From what I gather, she is a rather boring speaker. She has cut the outrageous bigotry, instead going on and on about inflation. She does it to appear less extreme than the reputation of her party, and it seems to be working.
I think it goes in cycles. If she wins, the next French president will probably be more interesting.
Vance is interesting enough. :Like with Le Pen, voters know he is far out, so he doesn’t have to prove it. Boring may help.
Say what you want about Christie, he ain’t boring.
I would posit that in my lifetime, grading only for how entertaining they are perceived to be by the public at-large:
Reagan > Mondale
Bush = Dukakis
Clinton > Bush
Clinton > Dole
Bush > Gore
Bush > Kerry
Obama > McCain
Obama > Romney
Trump > Clinton
Biden < Trump
Trump > Harris
I’d change that to Obama = McCain.
I think Trump has taught us that boring might be good.
FWIW I suspect there are others than Christie waiting to see what the midterm aftermath is.
I’m not counting on the Blue Wave. And neither is any potential GOP wannabe nominee. But if they do experience the historic beat down we are hoping then the race to take the reins goes beyond being whoever Trump anoints, as loyal as his activist base may be. The GOP preserved the Senate? Fine. If not, and especially if even worse for them than D of 52? I would not expect Vance to be the nominee. And it is then wide open.
As a matter of policy/executive temperament, absolutely. Unfortunately as a matter of electability, I think being a big (awful) personality is what carried Trump over the finish line both times.
The real question may be. How much leeway a Republican candidate will have to distance himself from Trump. As long as DJT draws breath he will be at war with any member of his party that defies him. I’m not sure, even after a humiliating midterm defeat, that he’ll have lost his ability to dictate the outcomes of primaries.
Much more than Biden would have given Harris. That’s because, while Trump values loyalty, he doesn’t care that much about policy. And he does forgive those who apologize.
Will it be hard for someone who served in his administration to sufficiently distance themselves from Trump to beat a Democratic ticket in 2028? Yes. Impossible? No.
If I am wrong, I think it will be because of mental deterioration on Trump’s part over the next couple years. This could cause him to become more stubborn. But as of today, he’d accept a lot of policy criticism from Kennedy, Rubio, or Vance.
That’s why I want him to have a looong life as a stone in the boot of the republican party, irrelevant to the world at large but constantly weighing down the republicans’ chances for a long time.
Both Trump and the Republican party deserve it so much that it would be almost enough to make me believe in karma.
A lot of things will depend on the state of the country in 2028. I imagine McCain’s viability as the nominee was a lot different in February of 2008 than April. Harris at least had low unemployment and a decent economy to lean on. Which is why she lost by a little under two points, and McCain lost by nearly 8.
A Vance or whoever may be able to criticize policies in the abstract without Trump understanding that they’re criticizing him, but it’s going to be tough to say “The country is in bad shape and we need a president who can fix it” without DJT going nuclear on them.
I think there’s a good chance the nominee will be the person who sings Trump’s praises the loudest.
I tend to agree. I think the message will be something like, “If only the obstructionist Dumocrats hasn’t fouled things up, we’d have eliminated all the Biden disasters. We promise to dial up the MAGA!”
This person will have Trump’s support, the GOP nomination, and will lose decisively.
There are some of the far right previously enthusiastic for Trump who are at odds with him for a variety of reasons, and some are making noises of a third party run from the likes of Majorie Taylor Green and Tucker Carlson.
It may be tempting for the NeoNazi lane folk to support them with their more explicit messaging than Vance who is slightly less overt in his Nazi themes.
Not snark. Very serious. That far right white nationalist antisemitic core that Vance is trying to build as his base may choose them and that may be a good chunk of Vance’s support.
Of course actually creating a third party and running a campaign is hard work … they will probably stop at the making noise and taking potshots at all sides level.
But as an exercise - if they did mount a real go? How do you think it would impact the GOP primary process?
How much support might JD Vance get from people outside that far-right white nationalist antisemitic core? Because he would need to capture some of the independent voters to win the presidency.
This thread is just about winning the nomination. Does he need more than them to win the GOP nomination? If he loses some of them to a third party does he have a different constituency in sufficient numbers to still get the nomination.
Winning over Independents though? Depends who is on the other side and how effective he would be at demonizing them. It would not be easy for him.
Trump talks so crazily that Vance will seem the sane one to a lot of independents. Because the far-right knows that Vance is at heart with them, he won’t have need to prove much with them. Contrasting Vance and Rubio, Rubio would have to prove he was MAGA, while Vance has less need to offer such proof.
Now, if Tucker Carlson mounts a serious third party bid, well, then, cancel what I said above. Vance would have to push hard right to make Carlson’s bid less plausible.
Vance is in a great position to get the nomination. From this far out, I’d put him as a slight general election underdog, but he’s a stronger candidate than a lot of Democrats think.
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It’s going to be fun watching the Republican candidates twist themselves in knots denying they knew Trump after he dies. Although for the ones who can’t avoid it, I wonder how many of them are going to claim that they are responsible for anything good that happened (and I know examples of this are sparse but they will certainly just lie to get around this) and also that they were the ones preventing disaster, such as Trump throwing a fit and nuking Canada.