The really weird thing is, if he doesn’t produce a heir before then Westeros is going to end up with king Jaime the Kingslayer, since he’s the closest living male relative.
No books in this thread?! 
He can’t legally take the throne because he is a member of the Kingsguard.
I’m more and more confident that the Umbers (and Rickon) are playing Ramsay. The producers made a choice with the prop wolf-head they used to represent the (supposedly) dead Shaggydog, and they picked one that wasn’t nearly as impressively large as Grey Wind’s head from the post-Red-Wedding episode. If they wanted us to be sure that this was a real betrayal (and the real Shaggydog) they could have had a massive wolf’s head prop, or (better yet) the entire wolf carcass, so big it has to be carried in by several men.
So either Umber presented a regular wolf’s head and is planning a betrayal (and hopefully some way to ensure Rickon’s safety), or the producers want us (the viewers) to believe that this is likely. I lean towards the first option, considering all the hints at a big fall coming for Ramsay.
He is now, but not if the king dies. The new king would be able to appoint a new kingsguard.
Besides the issue that he’s a Kingsguard - would this even be the case? He’s not a Baratheon, only related to them by marriage. Surely the “legitimate” line (as if there’s such a thing) would go to Robert’s cousins, if there are any (since all of Robert’s brothers are dead)?
IIRC, someone went back through the family trees (I think published by HBO, but possibly on some book reference sites), and found that the ‘present’ Lannisters are in fact Baratheon cousins, based on some female Baratheon 2 or 3 generations back who married Tywin Lannister’s grandfather (or some other ancestor).
There doesn’t appear to be any, as far as I can tell it seems Steffon Baratheon was an only child, so the king’s uncle may actually be the closest they can get in the line of succession.
I was similarly appalled they didn’t show Jon Snow naked except in half-second partial view spurts. I think it was necessary for the scene that they give his bare butt and perhaps package the attention that it deserves. (Kit Harington’s only done one nude scene and that was a butt double, so it’s time.)
Not only that, but the succession for the Iron Throne seems to follow standard primogeniture rules.
By these rules, I can’t see Jaime being in the line of succession at all. Note that the current succession follows the line of Baratheons. The Lannisters are not in the line of succession at all.
I’ve never heard of any succession that follows “closest living male relative,” other than by right of conquest or coup.
If Tommen dies without any descendants, the succession would go to any younger siblings (of which he has none), then would presumably go up one generation to Stannis and Renly (both of whom are dead), then would presumably go up one more generation, and down to any descendants thereof. You could end up with the legitimate succession going to some distant cousin of Tommen’s. However, unless that distant cousin has support (military and political), you’d likely end up with a contested succession and yet another civil war.
ETA: The other posts addressing this issue weren’t there when I started writing this… :smack:
It’s called proximity of blood, and it certainly did happen historically.
I stand corrected. According to the wikipedia article, “the application of this rule [proximity of blood] is a refusal to recognize the principle of successional representation, a component of primogeniture. Proximity of blood and primogeniture were at loggerheads in numerous medieval succession disputes.”
That said, in the show, the succession for the Iron Throne appears to be following primogeniture rules.
You’re not remembering the episode very well then. I just re-watched it. As Melisandre enters the courtyard of Castle Black, Jon asks her “Stannis?” and she looks away. Davos then asks her “Shireen? The Princess?” and she gives him the look I linked to. It’s very clear that both Jon and Davos assume from this that both are dead. But neither are shown asking anything else about it. You would expect Jon at least to ask what became of the rest of Stannis’s forces. It also should be noted that although Melisandre knows Shireen is dead, she deserted Stannis’s camp before the battle. She’s just assuming he’s dead, unless she somehow knows supernaturally.
I agree with you 100%. There are a lot of inconsistencies in Davos’s behavior and the Night’s Watch response to him. But a lot of this can be explained by the writers using shorthand to cram stuff into an episode (and later ones) where an awful lot happens. Jon and Davos could have interrogated Melisandre after her initial entrance (although she would have concealed her role in Shireen’s death.) But there’s no question from their behavior that they believe Stannis and Shireen to be dead.
Although Melisandre knows from Thoros that it’s possible to raise the dead, Davos has no reason to think that. He has no belief in the Lord of Light nor any reason to trust Melisandre. He deliberately has little contact with her, so there’s little reason she has told him her experiences with Thoros. His asking her to do this comes out of the blue.
And the Night’s Watch loyalists and the wildlings barely know Davos. They don’t have a lot of reason to follow his lead on anything.
The if Tommen dies scenario is covered…it results in the worlds biggest CF. And Tommen himself being king is already a scenario where the common people go “But isn’t he…?..nevermind”
The healthiest thing that could happen if Tommen dies is for all the Kingdoms to go their own way. Dorne and the Tyrells would go to war. The North and the Iron Islands would become their own kingdoms. The Vale would probably become an ally of the North. Casterly Rock would do well to secure the Crownlands and then fortress up their borders.
It would also be a situation where Gendry could come back into play.
Gendry is a bastard, though, so he can’t inherit unless legitimized. I’m pretty sure there’s nobody left who can legitimize Gendry who would want to. Unless the people of the Seven Kingdoms decide that they want to name him their new king since he’s the only Baratheon left. But I’m getting more of a “screw the monarchy” vibe from the common people, at this point.
IMO, things aren’t headed towards a new Baratheon, Lannister, or Tyrell ruler, they’re either headed for a Targaryen or anarchy. Anarchy seems more likely, the bigger question is whether it’ll end in mass extinction due to Winter and the White Walkers, or even out to something more like a democracy. Remember Daenerys’ statement about wanting to “break the wheel.” I think her end goal is to throw down the monarchy and give the realms to the people, not to put herself on top.
The Sparrows also embody this to a degree, speaking of the power of the many over the few. Their populist message could contribute to an uprising, even if the end result is anarchy or a democracy, rather than the theocracy they would clearly prefer.
Further on this, it made little sense for Melisandre to lose all hope before the battle. The Lord of Light had already (apparently) performed a great miracle by causing the thaw in response to Shireen’s sacrifice. While a lot of Stannis’s army had deserted, he still had thousands of men. Even in the real world, forces far more badly outnumbered than his have won victories (Agincourt, anyone?). If the Lord of Light could change the weather, surely he could give a victory to his chosen one even if he was outnumbered. Melisandre should have stayed until even the most remote hope was gone.
(And Stannis shows incredible incompetence for someone who is supposed to be one of the best and most experienced commanders in Westeros. Even if he expected a siege, surely he would have sent a few scouts ahead to check the defenses of Winterfell, instead of carelessly marching his army out of the protection of the forest on to an open plain. The Bolton forces were well outside Winterfell in the middle of an open snow covered field and visible from miles away. There’s no way Stannis should have been taken by surprise.)
While I think the show is in general well-written, it’s certainly not above sacrificing plausibility for the sake of drama. Most of these don’t bother me too much while I’m watching the show, but the details often don’t support any close analysis.
Yeah, they really butchered Stannis’s campaign. I assume it was because they needed to end it quicker than they originally thought, but they still could have done a lot better, I think.
Maybe Lancel Lannister would be next in line.
As with Jaime, he’s not a Baratheon, so he wouldn’t be in line.