It seems impossible to win. I still don’t even get how the good guys would ever win even in a face-to-face game.
We know there was a spy, and I strongly suspect it was Mr Shine, which also implicates sinjin. This makes me confident (call it 75% confident) that the spies are:
Texcat
Mahaloth
sinjin
Mr Shine
Texcat fits with the spies because Mr Shine nominated Storyteller for his team, making Johnny’s team the only two spy team.
My proposed team for discussion is:
Johnny Bravo
Terminus Est
Stanislaus
septimus
I’d like some thoughts or pleas of innocence before officially submitting the team. This is the team I discussed prior to sinjin’s team, and I suspect I’ll get enough yes votes, but I’d like to hear opinions. The next leaders and my suspicions are:
HookerChemical (Resistance)
Storyteller0910 (Resistance)
septimus (Resistance)
TexCat (Spy)
Stanislaus (Resistance)
If my suspicions are correct, this is a very good stretch for us.
You are proposing the same team that just failed but minus MrShine and adding Stanislaus. That means that unless you are correct about MrShine, the team will fail. Why did you decide not to go on your own mission? I actually think I might prefer you to Stanislaus.
I plea innocence, for what it’s worth. I still don’t believe that there were two spies on mission 1.
Partially because the Resistance is truly screwed if they haven’t pinned down the spies by the second fail. So if I’m right, the six I trust are interchangeable. If I’m wrong and we don’t have a more concrete theory about who to trust, we’re screwed. Story’s the one I’m least confident in, so Story should go on mission 4, which requires two fails.
The other part is that I think Stanislaus would get more votes to approve the team. If six people indicate they would vote for me, I’d put myself forward instead.
Yes. We cannot have another Failure. It’s possible that no further information will be forthcoming and a majority of us will need to agree, with only the data we have now, on five non-Spies.
Chances are high that we will lose. The assumption that Johnny Bravo is Resistance may be incorrect. I agree with Hooker that Mr. Shine is much much more likely to be the Spy than Terminus, but I’ve no guarantee. (If Mr. Shine is indeed a Spy, I think he made a very clever ploy with his nomination(s) from Group A.)
BUT we have to select some five people as our team. Can anyone suggest any group more likely than Hooker’s to be all-Resistance? I didn’t think so.
I’m not sure why Hooker mentions “six I trust are interchangeable” and sending Story on mission 4. I think mission 4 is irrelevant; if mission 3 succeeds we can add anyone as the fifth for mission 4. It’s the fifth for mission 5 which is critical – I think Hooker should be the choice then, rather than trying to guess which of Group A is clean.
(I trust Hooker more than stanislaus and might be happier with that substitution. But even then, we’d probably need stanislaus for the 5th slot on mission 5; by sending him now we get the game over with, one way or the other.)
Just now I’ve pursued the possibility that Johnny is a Spy and it’s very hard to make it work. Assuming Spies don’t propose missions with two Spies, most of the players in Groups B and C would be cleared. Hooker would be doubly cleared because of posts like #136. If sinjin were a Spy, why did he accept mission 2.2? If stanislaus were a spy, why did he reject probably-clean mission 2.1?
So the hypothesis that Johnny is Spy doesn’t work out well. This increases my confidence that Hooker’s team is clean! Go, Resistance!!
I am resistance, so Hookers propsed team would be guaranteed to fail,. Of course this is exactly what you’d expect me to say, so I’m sure you’ll disregard this post as saying nothing.
I did have a strong Townie sense from you. I agree it’s quite likely we’re about to lose.
But we’re at the stage where we need the names of five Resistance players NOW. If you’re not a Spy, who are the Spies? I tried that a while go – If Johnny is a Spy, who are the two Spies in Groups B and C? – and was unable to come up with two that made sense.
If you can come up with a list, I’ll seriously consider it. Meanwhile, Hooker’s construction is the one on the table that seems most consistent with the clues.
I honmestly couldn’t point to anyone and say they were more than 50% or less than 40% likely to be spies. It would be like throwing darts at a dartboard whilst blindfolded.
The moment I saw the unanimous votes for the team, I knew we were in trouble. Both rebels and spies were perfectly happy with the nominated team. The resistance was happy because we thought there were no spies on the team; we were also, perhaps, too eager to avoid having to approve a Hooker-nominated team. The spies were happy because they knew there was one and only one spy on the team.
I think there can be no doubt that sinjin has to be a spy. He very carefully constructed a team that seemed clean, but each of us on that team has had the finger pointed at them at some point. My money is now on septimus. As I said before, I find his hypothesis that there were two spies on the first team even more unconvincing. Consider:
Two in {Storyteller, TexCat, Mahaloth}
One in {Johnny, Terminus, Mr Shine, septimus}
sinjin
That makes four spies. It’s entirely too neat. It detracts from the real danger, that there’s another spy out there.
The good news is that we can use the same team but replace septimus with someone clean. I’m not sure who between Hooker and Stanislaus would be suitable. However, if there’s only one spy in the set of {Storyteller, TexCat, Mahaloth}, as I strongly suspect, then picking any one at random gives us a better than even chance of winning the mission.
As such I wll accept any mission set that I don’t know to be 100% likely to fail, (such as Hooker’s proposal)
Edit: was a reply to myself, not Terminus.
Well, given the unanimous vote, that result is no big surprise.
Of the proposed team: I trust myself implicitly; I’m inclined to trust Johnny and Terminus; and I’m suspicious of septimus, although apparently no-body else is. Which is odd because he explicitly posted a spy strategy for avoiding double-votes.
Hooker, if you swap out septimus for you or storyteller I’ll be more likely to accept.
I’ve got nothing. The only thing I know for certain at this point is that I’m not a spy. I’m still reading the thread but I just feel like I have nothing reasonable to contribute.
I apologize for any confusion I may have caused, but I made a mistake in the date. The nomination is due today (November 18) by 5:00 pm central time.
It’s not what you’re hoping to hear, but I’ll vote to Accept Hooker/stanislaus/Terminus/Johnny.
The problem might come on Mission 5 when you decide whether to trust me or Story.
This looks like a good idea.
For what it’s worth, I thought it was maybe a 50/50 shot of being clean at best, but the upside of a failure was high. I had worked the resistance/spies scenario above through and think it was the best theory we could work from on a fail. It was poison, but it might be worth swallowing.
The verdict seems to be that septimus should be replaced with me, so that’s the team I will propose.
I am massively impressed with all of you who continue to participate with such fervor. I don’t know what to say other than it’s a coin toss for almost everyone. Storyteller or Texcat is a spy. Other than that, I know nothing. I don’t even have a strong clue other than vibe on which one of them it is(I have been guessing Texcat).
:shrugs:
I could vote either way on any group that has Tex in it.
NETA: I mean vote either way except for groups with Tex, which I’ll reject.
I feel exactly this way too. Can someone explain in small words why they are convinced that there were two spies on mission one?