I do not mean to diminish the spies victory with what I am about to say, but I made a mistake by choosing to have ten players in this game. The resistance had very little chance to win.
As I said, I had played the game in person and was wondering how it would work on a message board. I have never played with more than 7 players before, though. I also do not own the original commercial copy. When I have played it, it was using playing cards, or more recently, the Avalon variant which my son owns.
I knew the game worked well with 5 to 7 players and I had too much faith in the game designers that a different amount of players would not change things that much. After the signups, when I was doing the setup, I realized this was probably not a good assumption.
With 5 to 7 players, only 2 players are chosen for the first mission, but with 8 or more, 3 players are chosen for the first mission. This means the chance of a random team not having a spy on is the following:
5 players - 30%
6 players - 40%
7 players - 29%
8 players - 18%
9 players - 24%
10 players - 17%
As you can see, just from random picking, the resistance has a much better chance of getting a point on the first mission. But on top of that, if the spies fail the mission, then there are not as many players to hide in. This gives them much more incentive to let the first mission succeed even if they are on it. So the resistance is much more likely to have gained a point after the first mission with 5 to 7 players and even if they do not gain a point, they have a smaller pool of players with a known spy in it.
I figured I was not the first person to try this game online, I just did not know where to look. I have since found it played on boardgamegeek forums and have heard it is sometimes played on xkcd forums. Looking at the boardgamegeek forums, almost all the games are 7 player. The ones that have more players almost always have special roles or special rules.
So, I apologize to those who muddled through this game with very little chance to win.
I want to thank all those who gave it their best in the game. I also want to thank septimus especially who realized the small chance the resistance had, but still spent considerable time contemplating the game.
I realize that I may have turned some of you off to this game for good, but for those that would like to try a more balanced version, I will run a second try with a maximum of 7 players. If you are interested sign up in this thread. I will make a new thread when the game starts.