I’m not sure I agree about JBravo. If he were a spy, wouldn’t it have been easier to nominate himself and two townies. Why would he want to bus/pressure one of his teammates?
Fair enough. It reduces the suspicion, but does not eliminate it. Honestly, the accusations against me play into it.
Well, frak. Who was on the team? Mr. Mod, might help if you could include, along with the results of the mission, the team members who went on the mission. That way, we won’t have to scroll back too far.
So let’s see, eliminating the three that went on the mission, along with HC, leaves six viable condidates:
Johnny Bravo
Terminus Est
Mr Shine
sinjin
[del]HookerChemical[/del]
[del]Storyteller0910[/del]
septimus
[del]TexCat[/del]
Stanislaus
[del]Mahaloth[/del]
There’s one known spy in that group, possibly two. It would be too much to hope for if those were our four spies right there.
On preview: I see that there’s already been some discussion while I was composing my post. If we exclude Johnny Bravo, that leaves us with only five candidates, of which there are likely two, if not three, spies. I don’t like it.
I am not the 3rd team leader, you are not the 4th, and Storyteller is not the 5th, you seem to have misplaced Mister Shine:
You don’t need to propose a clean team. You need to propose a team we can vote on to learn something, even in rejection. As I said, I’ll vote against it, but I think you might learn something by including a suspect player.
The rotation doesn’t start with JBravo now. The five potential leaders for mission 2 are:
[ul]
[li]Terminus Est[/li][li]Mr Shine[/li][li]sinjin[/li][li]HookerChemical[/li][li]Storyteller0910[/li][/ul]
I believe HC is referring to the fact that we’re in a whole new round, with five chances to propose a team to go on mission 2. I’ll be first to nominate a team for this mission. If this team is rejected, Mr Shine will propose another team, still for mission 2. If that team is rejected, you (sinjin) will be third to nominate a team. If your team is rejected, then HC will be fourth. We probably don’t want nominations to make it to storyteller because we’d be forced to accept whatever he proposes.
(The words Town and Scum really are better and clearer. For one thing, those words are easily inflected: Scummy, Scummish, Scummitude. In Mafia one can speak of “Townish comment” but “Resistancish” has a duller ring. Unless there’s serious objection I think I’ll switch to the preferred words.)
Neither 100% acceptance (which you seemed to advocate for the 1st vote) nor 100% rejection (which was the caricature made of Hooker’s suggestions) will provide information. The most information comes on a close vote, where every vote matters.
Let’s understand simple soft drinks before we start trying to count how many times the wine glasses have been swapped. 
What Hooker implied is that it was pro-Town for Townie to reject the mission if they weren’t on it. At least two Townies didn’t pay attention (including you, unless you’re Scum) and I’m the one that gets smudged? :smack: I did think of writing in support of Hooker’s comments but I expected it to have no effect other than to provide smudging opportunities.
If anyone wants to maintain a results matrix, the one I’ve started may save you a little typing.
J T M s H S s T S M
o e r i o t e e t a
h r S n o o p x a h
n m h j k r t C n a
John ..... ..... ..... ..... ..s.. ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Term ..... ..... ..... ..... ..s.. ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
MrSh ..... ..... ..... ..... ..s.. ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
sinj ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Hook R.... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Stor X.... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
sept R.... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
TexC X.s.. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Stan ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..s.. ..... ..... .....
Maha X.... ..... ..... ..... ..s.. ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Fail
Tex.s.J#54
Ter.s.H#75`
Sto.hints.Spy#77
Joh.s.H#89g
MrS.s.H#92
Mah.s.H#93
Sta.s.Sep#112
Term, Hook vocal
J T M s H S s T S M
o e r i o t e e t a
h r S n o o p x a h
n m h j k r t C n a
John ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Term ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
MrSh ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
sinj ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Hook ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Stor ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
sept ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
TexC ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Stan ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
Maha ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....
I’ve got no idea what that results matrix is supposed to be.
This isn’t Mafia. While there are many similarities, I think it’s best to get away from too much Mafia thinking. One big difference is that there’s no lynching; everyone stays in the game until the end. There’s also a strong dependence on player order; the next player is always the leader who will nominate the team, whether we think he’s loyal resistance or dirty spy. If that person happens to be fifth to nominate a team for a mission (I can’t stress this enough), we are probably in deep, deep trouble. I can’t stop anyone from using Mafia terminology, but sticking to using “Resistance” and “Spy” makes it clear we’re playing a different game.
I am probably going to nominate myself and the next three players who haven’t been implicated in some manner. In other words:
Terminus Est
Mr Shine
sinjin
septimus
This team doesn’t really fill me with confidence, but neither would any other possible team. Unless someone has serious objections, this is what I’m sending to MentalGuy.
[Incidentally, I’m on the other side of the International Date Line, so the term “tomorrow” is almost meaningless to me. It’s already “tomorrow” where I am, unless your “tomorrow” has become “today”.]
Have the mathematics of this game, and the best game-balancing been studied?
With 2 spies out of 5, a random 3-man team has a 10% chance of being clean. As a thought experiment, if one player were agreed by the Resistance to not be a Spy, a simple strategy guarantees success in 83% of games.
But with 4 spies out of 10, a random 5-man team has only a 2.4% chance of being clean; a random 4-man team has a 7.1% chance. In a hypothetical where TWO non-Spies were known, a simple strategy seems to yield less than 50% success rate with our game schedule.
I’m also West of the Date Line and South of the Tropic of Cancer. It was easy to convert from Bangkok time to MentalGuy’s Chicago time when they were saving daylight: just swap AM and PM. Now I have to also subtract an hour which – despite that I can do the arithmetic needed to come up with preceding paragraphs – sometimes poses a challenge! :o Terminus Est, it sounds like we’ll save a day on the schedule if you PM MentalGuy within 9 hours or so.
I think it was fairly clear what the result of the last vote was going to be, even without formally announcing votes. Which was really the worst of both worlds. I think if everybody is at least more explicit about what they’re thinking then it won’t let spies sit on the fence.
I agree with this - but I think you only get a close vote when there’s genuine debate. In the last round there wasn’t really any grounds for Accepting or Rejecting other than meta-analysis - which doesn’t (and didn’t) lead to the kind of meaty disagreement that gives info. I was kind of hoping that by opposing Hooker I would encourage others to say yay or nay but for the most part that didn’t happen.
One man’s smudge is another man’s suspicion. You were obviously influenced by Hooker’s argument - but from the outside it’s hard to say if your aim was to be pro-Resistance or to look pro-Resistance. In any case it was (as you say) fairly notable behaviour, so it can’t be ignored or treated neutrally - you want credit for being the one Resistance member who followed the correct lead. But there’s a flipside to that.
I’m going to reject this team because Mr Shine is on it.
Here’s his contribution so far:
In a game where we have to get a good read on each other to win, Mr Shine is doing the minimum. His first post is as bare bones as it can get. Then he has nothing to say - no questions for Johnny or anyone on the team, no opinion on the meta arguments for rejecting the first team, no new approaches or questions. There’s no attempt to reveal anything about his thoughts or approach to the game.
And then Hooker says there are 6 spies and Mr Shine emerges to accuse him. He’s not the first - Johnny Bravo has already picked up on this. It looks very opportunistic. My impression is that these “slips” are more often than not just slips, and (in Mafia) it’s usually the people who jump on them who are actually more worthy of suspicion.
So, as he’s resisted giving any good reason to trust him, and as his only substantive contribution looks very like opportunistic smudging, I don’t feel happy trusting him on a mission.
(This concludes your time-lagged braindump.)
There are two goals of a vote: (1) to “put on a face”, or (2) to affect the result. The 2nd purpose need be applied only when the vote is going to be close, i.e. about 6-4; and we need close results to compel Spies to make intentional votes. (Were ties clarified? Is 5-5 a Rejection?) If the 4 nominated team members all Accept, only two more Accepts are needed. Exraneous Accepts just let Spies hide.
Although tentatively selected for the mission, I’m not sure I’ll vote Accept. I was already slightly suspicious of Terminal Est and am paranoid enough to worry I’m the stooge, set up to be smudged if/when the mission fails. :eek:
I tend to trust Johnny Bravo. Maybe I’m gullible, but his ploy if Spy would attract unnecessary attention to himself. I also feel good about Hooker, who offers pro-Resistance advice. (Yes, that could be a Spy ploy … or even deliberately trying to help his opponents for an added challenge since I fear Resistance is a huge underdog here.)
On preview, I see Stanislaus is also rejecting the mission. I also don’t like Mr. Shine’s smudging. Terminal, do you want to suggest a different team? I feel good about Johnny, Hooker, and Stanislaus.
A team needs a majority vote to be accepted, so a 5-5 vote is a rejection.
Also, I am not going to change the deadline for a nomination, but I will be available this evening after all. So, if I receive a nomination before 10pm central time tonight I should be able to proceed us on to phase 2 then.
I think I’ve been on the right track all along.
I set up a mission with the hope of catching out scum. Hooker immediately gets antsy about that. Tries to reject the mission. Talks about how completely unlikely it is that scum would vote to sabotage even if they were on the team (wrong). Talks about how any scum would vote to reject the proposed mission to look like town (they didn’t).
Remains completely silent about my accusations until after the mission comes through, then makes unfounded claims against me that are walked back when TexCat points out that it’s a bad accusation.
Seriously, go back and read all of Hooker’s posts from the point of view of an experienced scum player trying to give advice to an inexperienced scum player.
The problem with this tactic is that the goal for town is NOT to catch spies; it’s to have successful missions. We may be stuck too much in a mafia mindset.
I’m not sure I like Terminus’s strategy of picking the next people. It seems like it gives town fewer options.
For example, if Stanislaus doesn’t want Mr. Shine to go on the mission, he not only has to reject Terminus, but then Mr. Shine is up, and he has to reject it too.
We’ll soon have the option of voting on the people in line after you, but it may be a while before we have the option of voting the people further down the line.
I’m not sure what I said that would throw suspicion on me, other than that I said anything at all. This is one of those traitor games where if you say a lot, you get accused and if you don’t say much, you get accused. (Witness poor Mr Shine.)
You know it’s a bad team if the people nominated for team want to reject it. Heck, I want to reject it even though I’m nominating it and I included myself. I’m going to wait to see if anyone else has any more input, especially sinjin, Then I’ll send my proposal off to MentalGuy before I go to bed in a couple hours.
On preview: I nominated the next players in turn order precisely because they’re next in turn order. They’ll be up for leadership next and therefore will have the greatest impact on team composition. Mr Shine wasn’t even on my radar when listed him.
Nope, I voted succeed and if it weren’t anti-game, I’d post my PM to show you.
Hmmmm. I didn’t send a PM.