Are you considering changes? Two of us have suggested replacing Mr. Shine. I’d like Johnny or Stanislaus on the team instead.
Huh.
I’ve been thinking a lot about this game, trying to puzzle out the details, and I think - somebody tell me if I’m wrong - that this…
…is wrong. It makes me strongly suspect that Texcat is the spy and that Mahaloth is probably clean. I believe that eliminating the three players from last night from consideration for future teams actually favors the Spies (albeit marginally). With 4 spies in a pool of 10, 40% of the player pool from which a team might be selected would be spies. Eliminating me, texcat, and Mahaloth out of hand on the basis of last night’s results would thus result in a new player pool of 3 spies in a pool of 7 - 43%, actually a slight net increase in the chances of a spy going into any given team.
Obviously, it’s a small increase, but the point is that I think the optimal strategy for the spies is to convince us to throw out resistance members along with spies. Say we send four new players into the fray for the next mission, and again the mission fails with one vote. Do we then throw all four of those players out, potentially eliminating three Resistancers and only one spy, now leaving us with a pool of only thee possible players (of which, by the way, two could be spies)?
No. Dismissing the three players on the team that went on the last mission is pro-Spy. We need to try to puzzle out which players are actually untrustworthy, not rely on brute force.
Texcat’s stating the opposite so directly - sigh, I guess none of the three of us are going on any missions anymore - makes me think she is the Spy. I think Mahaloth is clean because the approach doesn’t make any sense if both of them are spies and Texcat knows it.
So, for the moment, I will not approve any team with Texcat on it, but will consider teams involving Mahaloth (and obviously myself) as normal.
If only one of you three are Spies, then only 4 of the other 7 are Resistance and we will absolutely need one of you to win the final mission of Five. (Resistance’s chance seems very bleak.) So we will need to guess which of you three is trustworthy.
But I was leaning slightly toward Texcat as most trustworthy. :rolleyes: Mahaloth slipped and mentioned his PM (non-Spies don’t bother to send Succeed PM’s.) Your #77 seemed like possible hinting to Spies.
OK. It’s late and I’m getting punchy. In the hopes of nominating a marginally more acceptable team, I’m replacing Mr Shine with Johnny Bravo.
Johnny Bravo
Terminus Est
sinjin
septimus
Sending PM now.
Terminus Est has nominated the following team for mission 2:
Johnny Bravo
Terminus Est
sinjin
septimus
Please PM me your accept or reject votes before 5:00 pm on Monday, November 10th. If I have all votes, I will reveal results at the earliest opportunity after 5:00 pm tomorrow (Sunday, November 9th).
In general response to those suspicious of my resposnses so far: this is my first attempt at an SMDB forum game, and I don’t read the mafia threads, so maybe I don’t have the style down pat. My first response was as I figured there was no knowledge to be gained from rejecting the first round, subsequent posts pointed out that to be a fallacy; my next was because the discussion on HookerChemical was in swing when I happened to view the thread, it seemed like an odd mistake to make, but not too odd to pretend to make. For the record I’m rejecting this mission as I have been taken out of it. If it gets fully rejected my current thoughts on mission lineup for my term as leader would be
Mr Shine
Terminus Est
TexCat
storyteller0910
In the hope the Mahaloth was the one and only spy in round 1 and that Terminus Est is resistance,
I’m inclined to approve. I see no reason not to. And I’m not wild about Shine’s proposal even though I’m on it.
I was prone to Reject Terminus’ team, but if this is what we have to look forward to, I may just Accept Terminus Est’s plan. I find this nomination so odd, I now think Mr. Shine is Town.
Assuming you know you’re not a Spy, and that at least one of a random 3-set (in this case, {Mahaloth, Story, Texcat}) is a Spy, and making the (big?) assumption that a team with two or more Spies will somehow manage to make a single Fail vote, and assuming no other tells, then the chance that that threesome has 2 or more Spies is almost even-money! (46%). It might make sense to include one of the threesome if you have a strong Town-lean, but picking two, with so many others to choose from, seems wrong.
I wonder how much advance discussion is appropriate; will it help Spies or Resistance more?
If the proposals of both Terminus Est and Mr Shine are Rejected, then the leader list will be sinjin, Hooker, story. With Hooker and story both under suspicion, we might feel forced to accept sinjin’s proposal. Would it be good for sinjin to comment now on his tentative plan?
Wait, wait, wait: how do you know no spies voted to reject the mission? Two people did indeed vote to reject the mission; Hooker and septimus. True
I don’t know that NO spies voted to reject the mission. I know that ALL spies did not vote to reject the mission, despite Hooker all but begging them to.
Oh and rats, missed the end of phase 1. My daughter had a baby yesterday and we have been babysitting her 5 year old daughter in our camper, hahahahahaha. Mom and baby are ok, grandma and grandpa survived three days and nights with a 5 year old. I will try to be more attentive, I’m used to days long mafia Days.
Mr Shine’s future lineup is indeed very weird, but I think any talk of possible future teams is counterproductive. What we need to do is discuss the acceptability of the current lineup.
I’m still not feeling very good about the team. I wasn’t entirely convinced that Mr Shine was the probable spy. Odds are good that there’s still a spy on it. I’ll likely vote to accept, though, as a leader must show confidence in his own leadership.
Stanislaus, I hope you’ll offer your opinion of the proposed team, now that Mr. Shine is off it.
What do we know? Not much. We needed more votes. We bought a pig in a poke the first mission.
We know there is at least one spy among the following:
Storyteller
Texcat
Mahaloth
If only one of them is a spy (33%) (a reasonable conclusion given that only one fail was revealed), there are three spies among the remaining 7 players (42%). Avoiding the first team entirely is not a good solution, but I think we should avoid them for now. However, there is nothing to prove that there was only one spy on the first mission, other than potential voting patterns, which we have far too few of. I think Johnny Bravo’s comments support that there was likely only one spy on the mission. He indicated that his intention to catch two spies with the mission, so if he’s Resistance, spies would be foolish to approve the team and fall to willingly into his trap. This suggests that only one spy was on the mission, but it is far from proof.
At least two spies (I know it was three) voted to approve the first mission. If I’m a spy and sending veiled messages to the spies by suggesting that everybody should vote down the first mission, as suggested by Johnny Bravo, then spies are clearly not listing to me as at least two (3) . This overwhelming support for the first team suggests that spies are not looking to me for veiled messages and that I am not a spy. Again, this is far from proof.
Leaders should remember that their goal can be to see people’s reaction and votes to a given team rather than proposing a clean team. We get five tries. given the current rotation and suspicions against myself and Storyteller0910, there can (and should) be three votes.
Are no more opinions forthcoming? Everyone else playing their cards close to their chest, after the fiasco of the first mission?
I’m indecisive because I’m on the team and want the mission to succeed but am not sure I trust Johnny Bravo. What the heck I am going to vote for the mission to go. I will change my vote if someone presents a compelling reason to reject.
Something that gives me misgivings is your own luke-warm support (“still not feeling very good”, etc.) I think only TexCat, you and sinjin have indicated support, none enthusiastically.
I’d also like to hear from others. I’m undecided. I’ve sent in a PM, but it can be over-ridden.
FWIW, other than myself, Johnny Bravo is the player I’m most sure isn’t a Spy.
I guess I’m looking at it too much from the point-of-view of disinterested outside observer. We’ve rejected the three who went on the first mission (as we should). We’ve rejected a couple of others as having suspicious behavior. Thing is, we’ve rejected good players in that group along with spies. Now any four-person combination of the remaining unimplicated players is likely to contain a spy.
Eh, now I’ve talked myself into rejecting my own team. Mr Shine never passed the smell test for me. I don’t think he’s a spy and I hope he’ll come up with a better team.