I’m surprised anyone could think that lack of reveals make it a crapshoot. It’s not remotely (beyond that if it’s balanced properly each side will have roughly an equal chance to earn a win).
First, obviously the same scum-hunting techniques that people use before the first scum flips in any game will still work. Pressure enough people, hope someone gives off scum tells or (even better, though less likely) hope someone reacts the wrong way to pressure on someone else. Hope you’re good enough to separate the signal from the noise. Note, you probably won’t be at near your usual rate, which is why the large buffer of mislynches.
Second, look for voting patterns – who’s putting themselves out there and who’s playing safe? Scum don’t have a lot of options for getting themselves out of trouble once they’re in it (and very low numbers to boot), so the incentive is for conservative play. That can leave traces. In the last game, about halfway through, I characterized the last mafia’s vote record as “safe safe safe”; that plus some comments that felt like he was putting on a front are what ultimately led to his lynch over super-hard-to-read unflappable townie A and loud-analytical-should have lynched him days ago just to be sure he’s not pulling one over on us-frame victim townie B.
Third, (least effective, but fun) look at who dies and think about why. As I mentioned, that nightkilled players can still participate changes the incentives for the scum kills rather dramatically. Often it’s quiet players who are killed off in the hopes that paranoia builds on the active players who are continuously left alive. But if one of them suddenly dies, does it mean something? Frames can actually work in this format.
Fourth, listening to night-killed players is legitimate strategy: they may have no better insight than you, but at least you know they’re town. And occasionally being dead leads to a clearer view of things.
It’s more purely psychological than forms of mafia where certainty is common and rock-solid leads possible. You just never know, about anyone. It’s all judgment, and how good are you, really, at telling what distinguishes scum from townie, flat out, no crutches anywhere? I wouldn’t want to play one every day, but that’s why I like it.
