So do you not trust Astral or do you think Maha is the godfather?
And here I was wondering how to break it to him. That’ll do.
@ Winston: REALLY?
@ Astral – possibly not the wisest question to throw out to the masses. But since something has to be said, for me the combination of fluid’s claim and her behavior yesterday make her as close to solid town as we can have right now.
Townieness quotient:
Mahaloth:
pros - investigated Town
cons - investigation by a possibly-suspect player; could be Godfather
Astral:
pros - no counterclaim yet, which (unless one of the dead is an investigator) I would have expected by now. Knew about the mass redirect, which lends some credence to his power-role claim
cons - didn’t know his own alignment; could have learned about redirection from scum buddy.
Fluid:
pros - I strongly believe that her role is legit, and somewhat less strongly think she would not have behaved in the manner she did on Day 3 if she were Scum; also don’t feel it’s likely she’s third party, and in any case a third party will do about as well as a Townie for setting up a claim order.
cons - Her role could possibly be a scum one, if the bomber is a third party.
Inner:
pros - can’t expect to keep up the facade of a non-self-protecting doc for long; Maha confirms the block
cons - claimed under pressure.
I feel like Fluid is the one I’d be most surprised to see as a scum. Problem is, she’s not been super-active in the thread. Not sure how I sort the other 3.
Winston - check Maha’s posts in the Thundercats game; he made a lot of similar posts and was Town.
I don’t know what to think, but I posted something similar (as scum) once, and Ed called me on it. It was almost the same context and conversation.
Tom - check out my posts and Special Ed’s posts in the Dark Knight game on Giraffe; almost the exact same scenario
Okay, I have to throw this out there because it’s nagging at me:
What if the incomplete reveals are because there are no Scum?
Not that I think this is remotely likely, just throwing it out there because I want someone else to obsess about it, too.
Vote: Winston Smith for specious reasoning and jumping to conclusions.
I realize that this matches YOUR behavior in a recent game, and that YOU were caught out for it.
You are extrapolating from your experience to Mahaloth’s in a way that I find completely unreasonable.
How is it completely unreasonable?
Take your time. 
You died.
But that was you, not me.
Uh, because it was you, not me.
Your vote on me is a really bad one.
Er.
Unvote Mahaloth
I feel like a meathead.
I can’t believe no one made a WIFOM joke out of that. 
Good luck, town.
The role reveals do say which team a person is on. Further, our win conditions (assuming you’re town!) specifically mention a scum team.
I find it *exceedingly[/] unlikely there is no scum team. Feel free to stop obsessing over it. 
I spent some time over lunch trying to get a better handle on how a mass claim relates to this specific game situation.
We started with 21 players. Assuming that any player who could demonstrate a current claimant to be lying would already have done so (likely), and that all power role claimants are being truthful (uncertain, but it’s the scenario most in favor of doing a claim today), then we are looking at
7 known, claimed or implied power roles (including Pleonast and Mahaloth)
4-ish scum
1-2 third parties/PFKs/extra scum
from 21 players. That leaves 8 or 9 town roles of uncertain power or lack thereof yet to claim (including dead players). Assuming this is not an all-power game (and Red’s sample PM, gnarly’s dying unclaimed, and arguably SisC’s claim all indicate that it’s not), then you’d expect several vanillas. Perhaps virtually all of those 8-9 players. Perhaps only 4 or so.
If it’s the former, then there will be a whole lot of legitimate vanilla townie claims upcoming, mixed in with whatever the non-town claim. Risk to town is minimal beyond letting the scum know what they don’t have to worry about. Gain depends on what the non-town do, but there’s not much scope for fatal errors based on current knowledge. (Which doesn’t mean no one would make one.)
If the latter, then it depends on Ed, Hirka and gnarly, but there are still likely to be about as many vanilla townies claiming as power townies. Risk to town increases (the power townies left could include multiple heavy hitters like a full-time doc or roleblocker or vig; or better-off-un-outed roles like scotsman; as well as more neutral-in-that-way roles like masons); so does the risk that the scum or other non-town will get caught by something those hidden roles can demonstrate to be a lie.
Intangibles: mass claims always make the non-town nervous, make them worry about crossing all the I’s and dotting all the T’s on their fake claims, keep them distracted. If the town can stay focused on scum-hunting while all of this is being discussed, then the town comes off ahead in that sense, regardless of the other effects.
The upshot of all this: I’m liking the discussing it. I’d like it more if about a half dozen townies were reviewing suspects’ posts as well (cough Silver Jan cough). I’m not convinced the mass claim will turn up anything all that hugely useful in the end, though by the same token I’m not much terrified of the negatives.
Normal, I reread all of Silver Jan’s posts. I find her quite believable as town. If she is scum, then she has created some kind of fake ‘confused Townie’ persona, and writes all her posts in that way. That seems pretty elaborate to me.
Mahaloth confirmed Inner. I’m wondering what other powers Mahaloth knows about because they were used against him on night 2 and if that’s what is prompting the suggestion for a mass claim. What if Mahaloth is godfather and Scum want to find out where the rest of the powers are. Is that something they would want to know?
SisC, the flavour text at the start said there were ALE members among us. Also, our win-condition is that we win when all threats to CARS are eliminated. So we need to find the ALE members who are threats, and maybe the Bomber and the poisoner as well.
Oh, I forgot to say:
Yes, Normal, I was non-comittal on Astral. I wasn’t convinced either way, and I thought we could wait a few days and see how it played out. Mis-lynching a cop on Day 1 seemed bad. If he’s scum he’ll still be there later. I didn’t feel I had to make up my mind at that point, when more play might give more info.
(Still looking at the voters on Pleonast, but there’s a lot to read through, so it’s taking me a while.)
Red, can you prod or otherwise do something about pedescribe, please?
Metagame or not, he logged on to the Dope this morning according to his profile and has posted pretty consistently every few days elsewhere, and that tells me he’s consciously lurking and not merely having RL issues. Those facts elevate his lurking from merely anti-town to outright rude to the rest of us, IMHO.
OK, I thought about this some more, and if Mahaloth was scum, he probably wouldn’t have confirmed Inner Stickler’s power, so never mind that suggestion.
Oh, unless they are both scum.
How did you know, Mahaloth, that Inner used his power on you?