How will you deliver on this promise? Since when do you dictate what happens?
That is trade I think most people are willing to make.
If you are Vanilla and MentalGuy is scum, then 2 scum in 3 Days is a great exchange. If you’re a Sleeper, then the other Sleeper becomes survivor and NOT scum.
OR you are the Deranged Bomber. The only 3rd party so far is Deranged Bomber, because we haven’t seen a Sleeper in either death yet. We should then feel very secure with MentalGuy. Remember, scum don’t have an investigator to learn if you’re 3rd party. The odds that MentalGuy is scum AND you are 3rd party are pretty big.
I feel very secure in lynching Drain Bead, but am also willing to wait until more people have a chance to participate.
<snipped>
maybe he’s just picking up the baton from a scum buddy?
Yeah, I’m not sure how much there really is to discuss right now, because this (and what special ed said above about the glass of WiFoM) pretty much nails it:
Either Drain is third party/Deranged Bomber, in which case she has to go, or else MentalGuy is lying, in which case he’s an automatic lynch toMorrow if Drain flips town.
To be honest, I trust Drain waaaay more than I do MentalGuy at this point, because the circumstances of his claim yesterday were extremely convenient and I find it really odd that he survived the night both unscathed and unjailed, so I’m loath to vote to lynch, but I don’t see a different solution at this point. Does anyone else?
and obviously i think this to be about as stupid a policy as self preservation auto votes. i mean certainly give everyone a chance to weigh in. but after that what’s the point of artificially lengthening the Day. i know that some will say well let’s just keep talking blah blah blah. but that seldom, if ever happens. what ends up happening more often than not is people sit around with their thumbs in their ass. and actually having a game grind to a halt for an undertimened amount of time is about the most anti town thing that can happen.
i’ve got a new policy. vote for whoever votes for whoever votes for whoever hammers as their sole reason for a vote. and if we can somehow tie that hammer vote to a self preservation vote (although by definition that’s going to be tough) so much the better.
sheesh.
I did.
The full PM reads:
"Arise, Chicken, Arise!
Huh, doesn’t seem to have any effect on you."
Vote Drain Bead
Regarding my assertion and the enforcement thereof: When I dictate smart town policy, I do it in style. 
Regarding Idle: Took you goddamn long enough.
Regarding hammering and discussions: Hence my second post, peeker: if the town generally wants to cut off discussion, that’s one thing. Doing so faux-accidentally is at least halfway likely to be a scum move.
I went to bed early yesterDay! 
I’m Town, no worries.
I agree with this statement, but I disagree with the timing. Perhaps it would have been better to wait for Suburban Plankton to post something first?
Wait, WHAT?
Are you telling me that the jailer didn’t target you?
Huh. Not what I was expecting, but whatever.
I was fine with the Pleonast lynch. In other words I was not going to take an action that would impede his lynch. I posted quite a bit on this topic yesterday. To sum up, I felt that voting for Pleonast would have been purely for punitive reasons. In other words I would not have been voting because I thought he was scum, but because I thought he was playing badly and being annoying. Frankly, the fact the Pleonast turned up scum is largely coincidence. I suppose I could retroactively look back and see clearer signs (e.g., Pleonast never addressed the statistic that showed he was a good lynch candidate based on his Vanilla Claim) but even that is iffy. Being wrong and annoying about being wrong isn’t a scum tell in my opinion.
Rather than drop my vote on Pleonast, who was clearly going to get lynched at the time I left work on Friday, I chose to keep my vote on Astral Rejection as a record of who I found scummy at the time.
It’s all pretty straightforward to me.
Drain already claimed vanilla, which is both convenient for us and make me wonder. If Drain is Town, then obviously she would claim truthfully. If Drain is scum or 3rd Party, why would she claim Vanilla? She knows the game well enough that Cop versus vanilla claim will lead to the Vanilla being lynched pretty much all the time. She knows this!
But why would a scummy MentalGuy accuse a random player of being 3rd Party? Arrrgh!
You held the only Vanilla Claim heading into the night making you statistically more likely to be the sleeper than anyone else.
That’s pretty much how it has to play out. To do otherwise is high risk and little reward.
I think you mean small. 
I felt the same way, but the circumstances aren’t that out of whack for MentalGuy to be the Cop. MentalGuy was a good target for the jailer. Scum knew this; the jailer knew this. It is entirely possible that scum thought a Townie MentalGuy would be jailed and opted not to kill him. It’s also possible that the jailer thought Scum would avoid MentalGuy for this very reason and opted not to jail MentalGuy. In other words, MentalGuy’s survival is not quite as suspicious. I agree that his behavior yesterday might have been, but being alive isn’t.
Absent new claims, Drain Bead is the clear lynch choice for today. At worst we kill a vanilla (possible sleeper!) in exchange for exposing MentalGuy as a liar, which is actually quite good. At best we kill the bomber and confirm MentalGuy as the Cop. I’m really not seeing the downside to killing Drain Bead.
As for Timing, I think a strategic hammer of Drain Bead should optimize when Day falls during the week. Personally, I think having a Day end on the weekend is the worst for me. If we can hammer in such a way as to minimize this occurrence, I’d be for that. I will vote for Drain Bead later.
I’ll go ahead and vote for Drain Bead now based on my stated reasoning, with the intention of voting MentalGuy first thing toMorrow if Drain ends up vanilla as she claims. Can’t see any reason to wait any longer.
Vote Drain Bead
Urgh, wrong color: Vote Drain Bead
If Mental Guy is really Town, why didn’t Scum kill him? Because they expected him to be Jailed and their kill attempt would be wasted? And our Jailer didn’t Jail our Cop to allow him to use his power? (I’m “thinking” aloud here, probably just saying the obvious, hoping someone will either confirm I’m not confused … or explain what’s really happening.)
I see that Lynching Drain Bead to confirm our Cop is the logical move now, but I’m in no hurry … and not because of this comment which I don’t understand:
The only contribution I can make now is a useless translation aid:
Maybe he meant “odds are big” in the sense that 1000-to-1 long-shot odds are “bigger” than 100-to-1.
Yeah, if MentalGuy is actually Town, this is pretty much the exact scenario that had to have happened last night. Not impossible, obviously, but it seems at least a little unlikely.
I agree with Drain, though, that if the jailer did target MentalGuy last night, he or she should keep quiet about it. We’ll get clarity on the situation soon enough.
How experienced a player are you?
Played a few games on the board way back when, had a layoff of about five years, and then started up again with LOTR last fall. Why?
Yeah, you’re right, he did acknowledge that it was a tie. He didn’t seem to given any consideration to the way ties resolve, though, which makes me twitch.
In noting your actions today, I saw that:
- You seemed to disbelieve Mental Guy and trusted Drain more.
- You seemed to find it unlikely that mental Guy could have gotten a result last Night.
I thought that your experience level might impact my interpretation of it.
Scum would really want Mental Guy to have not gotten a result last Night. They would also like to cast suspicion on his results. They wouldn’t be looking at toDay as an opportunity to test his results. They would want to try to discredit him, if not get him lynched.
If mental Guy is not Scum, that also means that the Scum left him alone last Night, figuring he would be jailed. They probably would have thought the chance that he wasn’t was very slim.
Town would be more likely, in my opinion, to see the opportunity presented to get an anti-Town player either toDay or toMorrow and see the obvious lynch was Drain.
Town also would be more likely to accept the WiFoM game played by the jailer.
Your reactions toDay make me suspicious of you at this point.
All evidence points to the fact that Mental Guy is our cop and that Drain Bead is our 3rd party, which is fantastic for us. Kudos too to our jailer for winning their chicken game with the scum.
There are scenarios in which Mental Guy is lying and Drain Bead really is vanilla town. If this is the case (and I really don’t think it is), I’d urge our real cop and our real jailer to remain silent on the issue, as everyone before me has also urged. The truth will out itself soon enough without your intervention.
No bold, no color: Vote Drain Bead. I’ll follow that up with a real vote if we decide we’re more comfortable hammering this day. I’m in favor of it, but there’s no hurry!
I mentioned yesterDay that my top two suspicions were on Zeriel and Guiri for ill-defined gut reasons. Here’s what I think after having done a complete reread of the thread.
Zeriel:
I think Zeriel’s reasons for voting for Wolverine aren’t very good. Day 1 cases are never that great, this one is a bit problematic. One, Wolverine had already admitted the flaws in his plan, so accusing him of being “excessively confident” strikes me as odd.
And that’s my only complaint. Out of 43 other posts, they all struck me as extremely townie, very actively engaged in finding scum, hitting Pleo hard and often, questioning other players, etc.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I do stand corrected, by the way. In my reread, I saw that I had misremembered and I was indeed the person to tie Mental Guy and Pleonast. SP then untied it with his vote for Pleonast. Weigh that as you will in your evaluation of me.
Guiri:
Definitely still feeling a ton of suspicion for Guiri. 13 total posts, and that includes the “in!” post and the “confirming!” post. I still believe Guiri is lurking, and that’s even more evident now.
- I think a focus on mechanics questions are a slight scum tell. You’re not saying anything about the other players, and you look like you’re participating more than you actually are.
- Guiri did not vote for Pleo. Neither did a bunch of other people, but Guiri implicitly defended Pleo by calling certain actions null tells. I still contend that this post is “talking about how scummy Pleo seems” without actually following that up with a vote. Guiri then totally misrepresents this same post, backing further away from the Pleo lynch by saying that the post actually indicates that Guiri “disagree with Pleo’s position on a number of items but disagreement, dislike and considering his position anti-town does not make him scummy.”
- The OMGUS vote, the misrepresentation of my posts, the false equivalency (I can find Ed less suspicious for similar posts because of any number of a reasons. Gut feeling, tone of the posts, overall content, how wavering it feels, etc).
- 13 total posts, many of which were mechanics talk, with no discussion of the Mental Guy / Pleonast situation. Guiri’s last post of the Day comes a full Day and change before the end of the Day. Guiri just fails to weigh in on much of anything.
Overall, I’m leaning quite scum on Guiri. However, Drain Bead is still a much better lynch target for toDay.
I’ve already said this explicitly.
Okey-dokey, slick.