Tom, I ran the numbers and it looks like you’re right. The “half-life” of the all-kill lynch is about 5 Days (it has about even odds of occurring in any 5-Day interval). Scum need 17 players dead. If only scum and bomber are killing, that’ll take 9 Days, which is almost 2 lotto half-lives. That’s just over 1/4 chance to win for scum. Not fair.
Good catch sach, me not addressing that statistic probably was a scum tell. Unconfirmed vanilla town are always preferable lynch candidates unless there is strong indications that another player is scum. It’s especially true in this game. I probably would have talked about the point if I weren’t scum.
Actually, that gives me an idea for a general town strategy. Each Day, one vanilla town truthfully claims such, and is lynched. Town avoids exposing power roles. It’s then a race of building the confirmed pool versus scum finding the power roles. Who wins will depend on the powers in the game, and a little bit of luck. The town should not be able to guarantee a win with this tactic if the game is balanced.