Glasnost Mafia

[sachertorte]

@Drain_Bead

If nobody comes forward, it’s a big fat FOS to Suburban Plankton.

I agree with this statement, but I disagree with the timing. Perhaps it would have been better to wait for Suburban Plankton to post something first?

@MentalGuy

And they are not going to accomplish jack. Drain Bead investigated as 3rd party.

Wait, WHAT?
Are you telling me that the jailer didn’t target you?
Huh. Not what I was expecting, but whatever.

@peekercpa

and i am kind of interested to hear from ed and sach. both of them voted not pleo but both were espousing that they’d be fine with his lynch even going so far as to intimate voting for him if necessary. but when it came down to it they were someplace else.

I was fine with the Pleonast lynch. In other words I was not going to take an action that would impede his lynch. I posted quite a bit on this topic yesterday. To sum up, I felt that voting for Pleonast would have been purely for punitive reasons. In other words I would not have been voting because I thought he was scum, but because I thought he was playing badly and being annoying. Frankly, the fact the Pleonast turned up scum is largely coincidence. I suppose I could retroactively look back and see clearer signs (e.g., Pleonast never addressed the statistic that showed he was a good lynch candidate based on his Vanilla Claim) but even that is iffy. Being wrong and annoying about being wrong isn’t a scum tell in my opinion.

Rather than drop my vote on Pleonast, who was clearly going to get lynched at the time I left work on Friday, I chose to keep my vote on Astral Rejection as a record of who I found scummy at the time.
It’s all pretty straightforward to me.

@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

Unless someone steps forward and counter-claims Cop, I can’t see how you’re going to get out of claiming, and quite possibly still dying anyway.

Drain already claimed vanilla, which is both convenient for us and make me wonder. If Drain is Town, then obviously she would claim truthfully. If Drain is scum or 3rd Party, why would she claim Vanilla? She knows the game well enough that Cop versus vanilla claim will lead to the Vanilla being lynched pretty much all the time. She knows this!
But why would a scummy MentalGuy accuse a random player of being 3rd Party? Arrrgh!

@Suburban_Plankton

If nobody comes forward, and if we assume that means the Scum did successfully recruit last Night, how am I necessarily more suspicious than anyone else?

You held the only Vanilla Claim heading into the night making you statistically more likely to be the sleeper than anyone else.

@One_And_Only_Wanderers

I agree we have to lynch Drain today and then judge Mentalguy based on the results.

What are we going to do with the timing? Hammer or let the day play out?

That’s pretty much how it has to play out. To do otherwise is high risk and little reward.

@Wolverine

The odds that MentalGuy is scum AND you are 3rd party are pretty big.

I think you mean small.

@Gadarene

To be honest, I trust Drain waaaay more than I do MentalGuy at this point, because the circumstances of his claim yesterday were extremely convenient and I find it really odd that he survived the night both unscathed and unjailed, so I’m loath to vote to lynch, but I don’t see a different solution at this point. Does anyone else?

I felt the same way, but the circumstances aren’t that out of whack for MentalGuy to be the Cop. MentalGuy was a good target for the jailer. Scum knew this; the jailer knew this. It is entirely possible that scum thought a Townie MentalGuy would be jailed and opted not to kill him. It’s also possible that the jailer thought Scum would avoid MentalGuy for this very reason and opted not to jail MentalGuy. In other words, MentalGuy’s survival is not quite as suspicious. I agree that his behavior yesterday might have been, but being alive isn’t.
Absent new claims, Drain Bead is the clear lynch choice for today. At worst we kill a vanilla (possible sleeper!) in exchange for exposing MentalGuy as a liar, which is actually quite good. At best we kill the bomber and confirm MentalGuy as the Cop. I’m really not seeing the downside to killing Drain Bead.
As for Timing, I think a strategic hammer of Drain Bead should optimize when Day falls during the week. Personally, I think having a Day end on the weekend is the worst for me. If we can hammer in such a way as to minimize this occurrence, I’d be for that. I will vote for Drain Bead later.