Glasnost Mafia

[storyteller0910]

@Gadarene

Because I think letting the vig take care of Mental if he turns out to be lying is a terrible idea for the reasons I’ve stated. I thought I made that clear, but apparently not.

Wait, I don’t get it.

Scenario 1

DAY TWO - lynch Drain Bead, she is Town
NIGHT TWO - Vig kills Mental Guy, who is Scum
DAY THREE - We lynch some player other than MentalGuy

Scenario 2

DAY TWO - lynch Drain Bead, she is Town
NIGHT TWO - Vig does nothing
DAY THREE - We lynch MentalGuy

Are you saying you think Scenario 2 is preferable to Scenario 1?

[Gadarene]

@storyteller0910

Wait, I don’t get it.

Scenario 1

DAY TWO - lynch Drain Bead, she is Town
NIGHT TWO - Vig kills Mental Guy, who is Scum
DAY THREE - We lynch some player other than MentalGuy

Scenario 2

DAY TWO - lynch Drain Bead, she is Town
NIGHT TWO - Vig does nothing
DAY THREE - We lynch MentalGuy

Are you saying you think Scenario 2 is preferable to Scenario 1?

No, it was confusion on my part: I think Scenario 1 is preferable to Scenario 2.

[storyteller0910]

NETA - Ah, never mind.

[sachertorte]

@storyteller0910

You usually aren’t on board with my theory that lynching third parties is equivalent to a mislynch. I thought you might take issue with it here.

I don’t view lynching PFK as a mislynch. I consider PFK as part of the Town Lynch Burden.
That said, I don’t disagree with what you were trying to do, which was leverage the power of the Vig to gain something.

For example, if Drain Bead were to turn up Town, most would be clamoring for MentalGuy to be lynched Tomorrow. Fair enough, but if the Vig were still alive, there is a compelling argument to have the Vig kill MentalGuy at Night instead of lynching him. I figure you are doing the same thought process here with Drain Bead. In other words, the strategy has nothing to do with ‘mislynch’ because clearly in the hypothetical a scummy MentalGuy is not a mislynch, but it is an optimization of the use of Town Powers.

[special_ed]

@sachertorte

I don’t think you read what I wrote.

I’m suggesting (well to storyteller more than anything) that instead of trying to Vig Drain Bead, we have a side vote to “lynch” someone via Vig Kill. In other words WE STILL LYNCH DRAIN BEAD.

’

who would you suggest for a Vig kill?

[Zeriel]

@Astral_Rejection

Totally agreed with One and Only. Let the WIFOM game continue if Mental is on the level, and let the Vig deal with him if he isn’t. I say leave it entirely in the hands of the individual who already picked right once. I like the idea of the scum worrying about it.

Second note: this is just the suspicious Astral talking, but what were the odds of a successful scum recruitment on day 1? A one in ten shot? We’ve discussed it at length before, but given that our discussion had (somewhat) concluded that they would’t send a recruitment message to someone already scum for the express purpose of tricking us, I can see them doing it anyway just to spite us. They’d have to weigh a 1-in-10 shot against the benefits of an implied confirmed townie. Someone has already said it’s moved Idle to the townie side, so that could be exactly what they want.

In the absence of any other case, that shouldn’t affect anything. Just something I wanted us to keep in mind.

So…basically, you’re asking “What are the chances that Idle Thoughts is scum?” based on the fact he claimed the awaken message. If we get down to a Godfather-is-last-remaining situation, we have ways of dealing with it. Meanwhile, I think we should probably play the odds and assume they’re busting their butts trying to find their sleeper.

[Zeriel]

@storyteller0910

You usually aren’t on board with my theory that lynching third parties is equivalent to a mislynch. I thought you might take issue with it here.

It’s more like a half-mislynch, especially as we have to kill the bomber anyway to win. (I’m in general agreement with your theory when town only has to kill scum)

[Trepa_Mayfield]

@Wolverine

Whoever is the jailer, PLEASE jail MentalGuy tonight!

If Drain Bead is the DSB, then MentalGuy is the cop and needs protection (surviving outside of jail 2 nights in a row is unlikely). If Drain Bead is Town, then MentalGuy is either scum or DSB. While it would be nice to have the Vig kill a DSB MentalGuy, it is better to jail him to prevent a Night bomb deployment. That way we can safely lynch him tomorrow.

I don’t know what the jailer will do, but I just want to thank you for posting this. Now, in addition to the scum wondering about who the jailer will target, they also have to wonder if he’s going to listen to Wolverine. Extra WIFOM!

@storyteller0910

I’m not sure how to explain it if my previous attempt didn’t work. Maybe you had to be there for Mafia: Arkham Asylum to visualize it. Third parties are a trap. They have to be eliminated, but every time you use the lynch to eliminate them you actually promote the Scum win condition (and you generate mostly useless voting data, too). If there are reasonable secure non-lynch ways to eliminate threatening third-parties, they are always, always preferable from the standpoint of Town.

But there’s a difference between Third Party and PFK. Lynching PFKs buys the Town more time. Lynching Third Parties takes time away from the Town. Since the Deranged Bomber is an SK, and thus, PFK, we should lynch Drain Bead (and the Vig will kill Mental if he’s lying).

@sachertorte

Meh.
It isn’t as though I didn’t consider the possibility of having the Vig kill Drain Bead at Night. I considered it and rejected it. Mainly for the “bombs are icky” argument.
However, if storyteller is that concerned about having a null vote, we could simply have a straw poll for who the Vig should Kill Tonight. In other words, Town lynches X and Vig kills Drain Bead is very nearly functionally equivalent to Town lynches Drain Bead and Vig kills X. We know the scum roleblocker is dead and there is no redirector, so it isn’t a big brouhaha to assign a kill to the Vig.

I vehemently disagree with this. This discussion has gone down many times before, and I still say that the advantage of a vig is a town player unburdened by the Collective Consciousness. Every time the town lynches someone, there are always some scum in there, steering the votes the way they want. One townie isn’t guaranteed to make a better decision, but at least his hand isn’t being partially guided by scum.

@Gadarene

Unless the Town accidentally lynches the Vig or the Scum kills the Vig before the Vig has a chance to kill Drain. In either case we’re right back to where were are toDay, but with a reduction in our numbers.

Any lynch target is statistically more likely to be town than scum anyway, correct? So why are we fiddling around with risky scenarios when we can take the opportunity to effect either (1) removal of the Deranged Bomber or (2) a 1:1 trade of town for scum, as we would be guaranteed to get with the lynch of Drain?

This is also a horrible argument. THe problem with resorting to statistics is that the whole point of a lynch is killing whoever is most scummy. That is, we aren’t just flailing about and killing at random. In theory. Saying “well, we have a statistical chance…” is throwing doubt on the town’s ability to find scum, which is a bad argument. I’m not sure if it’s a townie argument or a scum argument, but it’s not a correct argument.

@Mahaloth

Let’s do this thing, then.

We can talk more if you guys like, but honestly, I feel like it’s just going on an on at this point. Just hammer Drain and we’ll deal with the fallout if she is Town if and when that occurs.

Sorry if I am in the minority, but let’s just do this thing.

We have people who are making interesting points. Why are you in such a rush? Are you trying to cut somebody off before they finish elucidating, hmm?

[Gadarene]

@pedescribe

This is also a horrible argument. THe problem with resorting to statistics is that the whole point of a lynch is killing whoever is most scummy. That is, we aren’t just flailing about and killing at random. In theory. Saying “well, we have a statistical chance…” is throwing doubt on the town’s ability to find scum, which is a bad argument. I’m not sure if it’s a townie argument or a scum argument, but it’s not a correct argument.

Fine, pede. Who, at this moment, is more scummy (or PFK-y, I suppose) than Drain? Do you anticipate any scenario at this point in which Drain is not the best target to lynch today?

I wasn’t “resorting to statistics,” by the way. I was weighing the 100 percent chance we have of advancing the town’s win condition by lynching Drain toDay (and offing MentalGuy if Drain flips town) against the something less than 100 percent chance we have of advancing the town’s win condition by lynching someone other than Drain today, unless you have a candidate to propose who is equally likely to shed major light on who the baddies are in our midst.

[sachertorte]

@pedescribe

I vehemently disagree with this. This discussion has gone down many times before, and I still say that the advantage of a vig is a town player unburdened by the Collective Consciousness. Every time the town lynches someone, there are always some scum in there, steering the votes the way they want. One townie isn’t guaranteed to make a better decision, but at least his hand isn’t being partially guided by scum.

The idea is to attempt to use the Vig kill as a de facto lynch. Allowing the Vig to kill unilaterally has its downsides too.
(1) The target does not have the opportunity to claim
(2) We lack a vote record and ensuing discussion about the target.

So while scum have the benefit of small influence on the outcome, they do so with the peril of exposing themselves by acting overtly. That’s actually the whole point of the exercise.

[special_ed]

@Gadarene

Fine, pede. Who, at this moment, is more scummy (or PFK-y, I suppose) than Drain? Do you anticipate any scenario at this point in which Drain is not the best target to lynch today?

I wasn’t “resorting to statistics,” by the way. I was weighing the 100 percent chance we have of advancing the town’s win condition by lynching Drain toDay (and offing MentalGuy if Drain flips town) against the something less than 100 percent chance we have of advancing the town’s win condition by lynching someone other than Drain today, unless you have a candidate to propose who is equally likely to shed major light on who the baddies are in our midst.

I don’t think this is a fair comparison. While I do agree with lynching Drain toDay, I understand the counter argument.

Drain will die this cycle either by lynch or by Vig.
Here’s how I break down the pros and cons based on if she’s Town or Bomber:

Town:
Pros to lynching:

[ul]
[li]We have information on Mental and the Vig can take care of him toNight.[/li][li]We start off Day 3 with an additional dead Scum.[/li][/ul]
Cons to lynching:

[ul]
[li]We’ve really given up any good information from toDay’s lynch. It’s pretty unanimous.[/li][/ul]

Pros to Vigging:

[ul]
[li]We can spend toDay trying to find Scum and have that information for future Days.[/li][li]We will have information on mental Guy to lynch him toMorrow[/li][/ul]
Cons to Vigging:

[ul]
[li]We will get no information toMorrow because we’ll all vote for Mental[/li][/ul]
Conclusion:
If she’s Town, it’s better to lynch her. We’ll end up with the same amount of information, and Mental Guy will be dead sooner.
Bomber:
Pros to lynching:

[ul]
[li]She won’t be able to tag anyone toNight.[/li][/ul]
Cons to lynching:

[ul]
[li]We’ve really given up any good information from toDay’s lynch. It’s pretty unanimous.[/li][/ul]

Pros to Vigging:

[ul]
[li]We can spend toDay trying to find Scum and have that information for future Days.[/li][/ul]
Cons to Vigging:

[ul]
[li]She’ll be able to tag someone and they will blow up with her. It is possible though, that she might tag a Scum.[/li][/ul]
Conclusion:
If she’s Bomber, it still makes sense to lynch her, but it’s less clear. We’ll get an extra Day of voting and posting information if we Vig her, but we’ll likely lose another Town to a bomb in the process.

[Astral_Rejection]

We can still look for scum, even if we’re unanimously voting to lynch Drain. For instance, I looked at Zeriel (outcome = seems very town) and Guiri (seems scummy). I’d encourage everyone to do that, since tomorrow we’ll be anywhere from 1 to 3 people shorter.

[sachertorte]

@special_ed

’

who would you suggest for a Vig kill?

I’m not entirely convinced that we should push for a Lynch-by-vig. I mainly suggested it as a better plan to the vig Drain Bead mental exercise. From a logistical point of view, I think it makes sense. From a gameplay point of view I think we are incapable of executing it properly. To do so we need to quickly form a consensus that we want the Vig to kill the winner of a straw poll. Then we need to conduct the straw poll, deal with claims and form the consensus on who is going to die at night.

Also, we aren’t sure what Drain Bead will turn up as. If she is Town, then the Vig will target MentalGuy making the entire exercise moot. (As I type this I realize that this isn’t really a problem, but a minor complication).

Also also, I don’t know if I want to push for a claim. Asking for the vig to target someone is asking that target to claim. Do we have enough consensus to even force this point? I’m wary of trying to direct a vig kill without clear consensus about what we expect to happen during the night.
Separately:
I have lingering suspicions on Astral Rejection from Day One.
I’m also curious about the status of One and Only Wanders who has a history of getting himself lynched early but is seemingly under the radar in this game. Not that he should be getting himself lynched, but his lack of presence needs to be addressed.

[special_ed]

I’m meant to do this sooner.

I’m going to claim:

I have a big dick.

[Astral_Rejection]

Do we… do we need to lynch you to confirm? :eek:

[special_ed]

@Astral_Rejection

Do we… do we need to lynch you to confirm? :eek:

No, no, no

Sorry, what I meant was:

I am a big dick.

[special_ed]

@special_ed

No, no, no

Sorry, what I meant was:

I am a big dick.

and that doesn’t mean large detective.

[Chronos]

[OOG]
Sorry, I have to say it…
“They said you was hung!”

[/OOG]

[Drain_Bead]

Better hung than hanged.

[Zeriel]

I am, as always, categorically and completely opposed to any attempts by town to coerce, vote, poll, or otherwise decide who the vig (or any town power role) will target. I consider all such attempts to be anti-town.