Glasnost Mafia

[Zeriel]

@Gadarene

This is an interesting idea.

While it would be of net benefit to town to have all the vanillas gone before the sleeper is awakened, consider what we’d have to do to actualize that–anyone who was hesitant to claim vanilla to expedite the process is revealed as a potential power role, or else the plan falls apart.

One at a time might work, but then there’s the problem of “who goes first”.

After sachertorte, I mean.

[sachertorte]

Suburban Plankton would be next.

After that I’m thinking it would be time for a mass claim, but that is very situational. It would depend on who was lynched and who scum killed. If scum kill a Vanilla Town or Two HUZZAH! They are screwed.

It’s not hard for Vanillas to claim for themselves when they are ready. Just be sure to preview before you hit submit. And if all the remaining Vanillas don’t want to claim, then we haven’t really lost anything have we?

[Suburban_Plankton]

@sachertorte

I feel that the Vigilante is woefully under-utilizing a Town Power. With the bomber dead, additional town-directed Nightkills are a good thing. The only thing that needs to be avoided is killing other Town Powers.
Thus, the Vigilante should kill me.
You are correct that this won’t net scum, but it will move town closer to lynching scum.

I feel that Town has control of this game, but we must act to maintain our advantage. I feel that we can maximize our position by having the Vigilante kill Vanilla Town. (e.g., me)

Thought experiment: What would happen if all the Vanilla Town were dead right now?

By claiming Vanilla Town, haven’t you now simply given the Scum that much smaller of a pool to shoot into in order to find and eliminate our Power roles?

I understand the idea that the Vig needs to avoid killing Town Powers, but I don’t see how having the Vig intentionally kill a Townie is a ‘good thing’. The Vig hasn’t hurt us so far, so why should he start doing so now?

And you are incorrect about “maximizing our position”. We can maximize our position by having the vigilante kill Scum, not Town. If we had a compulsive Vig, then your strategy would be sound, but in this case, I don’t see it. If you feel that Town is in control of this game, then it has gotten to this point by letting our town Powers play as they see fit; why shake things up and start directing them at this point?

If I’m being short-sighted, someone please correct me, but I just don’t see this strategy as being in the Town’s best interests.

[sachertorte]

@Zeriel

While it would be of net benefit to town to have all the vanillas gone before the sleeper is awakened, <snippity-do-dah>

Wait. What?
Why do you say that the sleeper hasn’t been awakened yet?
I’m under the impression that the sleeper was awakened on Night Two due to no one claiming to have been the target of an attempt.

[sachertorte]

@Suburban_Plankton

By claiming Vanilla Town, haven’t you now simply given the Scum that much smaller of a pool to shoot into in order to find and eliminate our Power roles?

Slight, but not significant. I’ve also eliminated myself from the potential list for the Jailer, Cop, and Doc, which is not insignificant.
Also, it’s no worse than your vanilla claim. In fact, it is significantly better since we have evidence that the sleeper has already been activated.

I understand the idea that the Vig needs to avoid killing Town Powers, but I don’t see how having the Vig intentionally kill a Townie is a ‘good thing’. The Vig hasn’t hurt us so far, so why should he start doing so now?

It is counterintuitive. The game is shifting away from Town-vs-Scum mode and into Known-vs-Unknown mode. Vanilla Town count as unknown. If we reach a point where Known > Unknown, Town wins.

And you are incorrect about “maximizing our position”. We can maximize our position by having the vigilante kill Scum, not Town. If we had a compulsive Vig, then your strategy would be sound, but in this case, I don’t see it. If you feel that Town is in control of this game, then it has gotten to this point by letting our town Powers play as they see fit; why shake things up and start directing them at this point?

If I’m being short-sighted, someone please correct me, but I just don’t see this strategy as being in the Town’s best interests.

Honestly, Town got to this point by being lucky.

[Red_Skeezix]

Day 3 Vote Tally

Mahaloth(4) :Manwich[815], sachertorte[842], pedescribe[874], Idle Thoughts[908]
Astral Rejection(3) :guiri[855], septimus[883], special ed[888]
septimus(2) :Astral Rejection[846], Zeriel[896]
Gadarene(1) :[del]septimus[825-883][/del], [del]Astral Rejection[830-845][/del], peekercpa[902]
Idle Thoughts(0) :[del]Mahaloth[810-818][/del]
Suburban Plankton(0) :[del]pedescribe[860-874][/del]

Did Not Vote:Mahaloth,Gadarene,Mental Guy,Suburban Plankton,Wolverine,Drain Bead,storyteller0910,One and Only Wanderers,ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies

With these votes, Mahaloth would be lynched.

[Gadarene]

I’d be surprised if Drain were to vote for someone toDay, Red.

[Red_Skeezix]

Heh, forgot to mark Drain as dead in the vote counting program.

REAL Day 3 Vote Tally
Mahaloth(4) :Manwich[815], sachertorte[842], pedescribe[874], Idle Thoughts[908]
Astral Rejection(3) :guiri[855], septimus[883], special ed[888]
septimus(2) :Astral Rejection[846], Zeriel[896]
Gadarene(1) :[del]septimus[825-883][/del], [del]Astral Rejection[830-845][/del], peekercpa[902]
Idle Thohts(0) :[del]Mahaloth[810-818][/del]
Suburban Plankton(0) :[del]pedescribe[860-874][/del]
Did Not Vote:Mahaloth,Gadarene,Mental Guy,Suburban Plankton,Wolverine,storyteller0910,One and Only Wanderers,ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies

With these votes, Mahaloth would be lynched.

[Zeriel]

@sachertorte

Wait. What?
Why do you say that the sleeper hasn’t been awakened yet?
I’m under the impression that the sleeper was awakened on Night Two due to no one claiming to have been the target of an attempt.

I don’t necessarily think we can take that for granted, myself, until we see a claim from the townie sleeper.

I am not advocating said claim to happen at this time.

[special_ed]

@Mahaloth

1. I have talked regularly instead.

2. I have not “voted and disappeared”

3. I have justified my votes and had actual cases. My case on Idle was particularly strong, though I can not reconcile it with the fact he claimed “chicken” recruitment, so to speak(hence my unvote).

4. I voted early, even. I’ve put myself out there instead of hiding or trying to avoid attention all together. I suspect the scum are just laying low and flying along, confident that we will lynch louder players.

I see.

But couldn’t a Scum very easily do all of these things and still push a pro-Scum agenda?

[special_ed]

@sachertorte

It is counterintuitive. The game is shifting away from Town-vs-Scum mode and into Known-vs-Unknown mode. Vanilla Town count as unknown. If we reach a point where Known > Unknown, Town wins.

While this is true, this is a game where a successful counterclaim by Scum can be of great benefit to them.

If the game gets to 4-2, and a power role claims, a successful counter claim will win the game for Scum.

However, a mass claim would force the Scum’s hand. They would have to either counter or claim Vanilla and face lynching and Vigging. While a doc and jailer could wifom with the Scum.

We have:

1 scum godfather
2 scum vanilla

2 sleepers

1 town cop
1 town jailer
1 town vigilante
3 town masons
7 vanilla town

If we assume the sleep was awakened:
4 Scum

14 Town
Doc
Cop
Jailer
Vigilante
3 Masons
7 vanilla

Just eyeballing the figures, it does look like an entire mass claim will work.

We'll instantly have 4 confirmed Town (since I assume we all mostly trust Mental Guy)

If the Scum counterclaim a power role, we get that Scum either through the lynch or through a Vig that Night.

If the Scum don't, we have the 7 Vanilla + 4 Scum to kill via lynching and Vigging.

11 can be killed in 6 days and 5 Nights. Which does seem to occur before the Scum can kill off the 7 Town power roles.

Disclaimer. I’m not sure how this works out of the Scum haven’t awakened the sleeper.

[Gadarene]

I think I agree with Ed’s math, and I’m receptive to the idea of a mass claim.

[Astral_Rejection]

That sounds doable. I’m in favor of the idea.

[special_ed]

@Astral_Rejection

That sounds doable. I’m in favor of the idea.

Do we have time for a mass claim? By my watch I count about 24.5 hours

[special_ed]

Wait, crap.

This plan won’t work.

The Vig will be an open target for the Scum.

It’ll be a WiFoM game between the doc and the Scum, but time is not on the Town’s side.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

Yeah, everything checks out. Let’s do this!

I am vanilla town.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

Well that was embarrassing.

[GuiriEnEspana]

@special_ed

However, a mass claim would force the Scum’s hand. They would have to either counter or claim Vanilla and face lynching and Vigging. While a doc and jailer could wifom with the Scum.

This, plus the disclaimer, are both key.

With a mass claim the Vig, Jailor and the Doc would be exposed. In order for the plan to work, the Vig needs to stay alive for (up to) 5 Nights, right? That means that the Jailor has to win the WIFOM game with scum in relation to whether the Doc is being jailed or not and therefore whether the Vig or the jailor is being protected by the Doc for (up to) 5 Nights.

And for the disclaimer, even an uncounterclaimed Doc is no guarantee that sleeper activation has occured and that we actually have a Doc - we either have to kill 3 more scum and see that the game is not over or wait for the Doc to turn up dead. And vice-versam, to be sure that sleeper activation hasn’t occured, we need to see a dead sleeper.

There may be a middle ground, a partial claim where the Vig stays hidden in the unconfirmed pool but I don’t see a fool-proof solution right now.

[Manwich]

Quick post before work starts:

I agree the mass claim doesn’t seem to work because we can’t protect the Vig.

Also, I have been neglecting the sleeper/recruitment issue. What are people’s thoughts on what has happened there? What are the most likely possibilities?

• No recruitment attempt first night, then a failed attempt to recruit Idle.
• Successful attempt first night and Idle is lying.

Am I missing anything?

[special_ed]

@Manwich

Quick post before work starts:

I agree the mass claim doesn’t seem to work because we can’t protect the Vig.

Also, I have been neglecting the sleeper/recruitment issue. What are people’s thoughts on what has happened there? What are the most likely possibilities?

• No recruitment attempt first night, then a failed attempt to recruit Idle.
• Successful attempt first night and Idle is lying.

Am I missing anything?

You’re missing the fact that Idle claims an attempted recruitment on Night 1.