Glasnost Mafia

[sachertorte]

@Mahaloth

I vote yes.

Did you see the part of the plan where you need to choose the Vig and Doc target? I volunteer myself, but you should make your choice explicit.

[Gadarene]

@storyteller0910

…and by the way, the reason I like sach’s original plan (everyone claims vanilla or not-Vanilla, and the Vig lies) is that it will help tremendously with more detailed analyses of voting. If I knew for sure that 4-5 additional players were Town, I could draw much better conclusions.

I agree that sach’s original plan seems really, really sound, and hopefully we can implement it toMorrow if we don’t have time to do so toDay.

Also, reviewing storyteller’s examination of the Day One voting, one thing jumps out at me:

septimus votes Pleonast at #212. There’s not much to say about this vote, but I just want to point out that by now, Pleonast has five votes. Three unknowns: septimus, Gadarene, and Zeriel. I view it as a strong possibility that at least one of the three is Scum, as I don’t think Scum would have completely avoided Pleonast’s bandwagon.

Now septimus moves his vote (at #284) to Mahaloth (6-5).

So, in the space of less than fifty posts, we have gone from Pleonast as the dramatic leader to a very close thing. The Scum role-blocker, previously a sure lynch, is suddenly in danger of surviving. Who has contributed? Wolverine, Manwich, Mental Guy (Town), and septimus. I’d lay odds that at least one of those three (Wolverine, Manwich, septimus) is Scum.

I like this analysis, and I think it leads (in a Venn diagram-y kind of way) straight to the common denominator in these two groups.

So: Vote septimus

[sachertorte]

I have 5 Yes, 3 No, and 1 Abstain. The 1 Abstain means we have 17 effective votes and a majority of 9 carries.

Need 4 Yes or 6 No to reach a consensus.

And input from Mahaloth to finalize the plan.

[sachertorte]

One additional note on the vig and protect a vanilla plan:
I’d like to confirm whether we have a Doc or not in order to have a basis for expected number of Vanilla town. If we have a Doc, the Doc knows it and there are 7 True Vanilla Towns left in the game. If there is no Doc then there are 9 players who honestly believe themselves to be Vanilla Town, even though they all aren’t.
This is a relatively small thing and I think we can get by without knowing it right now, but it is part of my thinking. We would need to think on our feet regarding a Doc who previously claimed vanilla. I don’t think it is insurmountable, but it is a factor to consider.

[One_And_Only_Wanderers]

@storyteller0910

There are not going to be any duplicates. No one has said this yet, but in a mass claim situation the Scum will all claim Vanilla if the Vig is still alive. What else are they going to claim? Fake claim Vig? You’re dying that Night. Fake claim Doctor? We’ll leave both of you alive, have the Vig target one or the other and tell you both to self-protect. Neither dies, then the Vig has a target for the following Night.

Fake claim Mason? Good-bye.

Fake claim Jailer? OK, but your maximum life expectancy is one Day. You can get the real Jailer lynched, but you’ll die that Night.

In a mass claim situation, the Scum will all claim vanilla and then kill power roles. It’s the only way they have a chance in such a situation.

But in which case - we would not vig/lynch the power claimants.

I would see this running in phases.

Phase 1

the claim of vanilla/non vanilla

Phase 2

See if we have the correct number of power claimants or not

When we know where the scum are hiding, we assess the next phases.

[storyteller0910]

To summarize my conclusions (for more detailed discussion, please see my last two novellas). These lists are in no particular order:

(NEARLY) CERTAIN TOWN:

1. Mahaloth: Mason
2. MentalGuy: Cop
3. storyteller0910: Me

LEANING TOWN:

1. Sachertorte: based mostly on the tone of his exchanges with Pleonast and his introduction of the Vig-kills-me plan toDay.
2. Gadarene: preponderance of evidence, and in spite of some things that give me pause – the Townie straw, though, is that mildly unfriendly exchange with Pleonast as Pleonast headed toward the noose.
3. Suburban Plankton: For helping to ensure the Pleonast lynch on Day One at a critical moment.
4. One and Only Wanderers: Ditto.

HAVE SUSPICIONS OF:

1. special ed: His voting record relative to the Pleonast lynch is very, very bad. If we’re not going to lynch him for that at some point, then I’m not sure how to play, because we’re giving free passes to Scum to openly help one another out.
2. guiri: More a feeling than anything else.
3. Manwich: For being part of the initial swing from Pleonast to Mahaloth toward the end of Day One.
4. peekercpa: Like Guiri, this is more a feel thing. He was much less aggressive about Pleonast than I’d normally expect peeker to be, and he hasn’t so much as tossed a vote my way yet
5. Wolverine: Same as Manwich, basically.

NOT SURE AT ALL

1. septimus: From a voting record standpoint, I should be all over him, because twice he has been involved in small groups that I feel are likely to include at least some Scum. But the tone of his posts has not suggested Scum to me at all. I am massively conflicted.

NO READ YET ON:

1. Zeriel
2. pedescribe
3. Idle Thoughts
4. Astral Rejection
5. …Cookies

The following vote may not be my final vote for the Day, as I intend to read up on Astral Rejection and decide whether I want to vote for him, septimus, or neither. But in the interest of voting for the moment for the player I consider most Scummy, I will:

vote special ed

[GuiriEnEspana]

Vote Yes to plan

Keeping the Vig hidden in the vanilla pool is perfect.

[sachertorte]

With the Day ending in less than four hours I think the lack of chatter is not a good thing.

[Gadarene]

Can we have a vote count?

[storyteller0910]

I have (informally) six votes septimus, four votes Astral Rejection.

[Zeriel]

@storyteller0910

1. septimus: From a voting record standpoint, I should be all over him, because twice he has been involved in small groups that I feel are likely to include at least some Scum. But the tone of his posts has not suggested Scum to me at all. I am massively conflicted.

In cases like that, that’s why I’ve been going pretty much solely to the voting record. Scum or not, Pleo’s words of “actions mean something” does have some force, and watching who’s manipulating the vote is a perpetual gold mine of scum-finding fun for me.

[Astral_Rejection]

I vote yes for the plan.

[septimus]

@storyteller0910

HAVE SUSPICIONS OF:

1. … His voting record relative to the Pleonast lynch is very, very bad.

FWIW, I’d bet you’ve hit the nail on the head.

I’d move my vote but, if anyone noticed at all, it’d probably be taken as a contraindication even after I flip Town!

[special_ed]

@sachertorte

Since the mass Vanilla Claim seems to be out for Today. Let’s drop it for now and pick it up in the morning.

I think we should try and determine the existence of a Doc. We need consensus on this point before nightfall.

The proposal:
Jailer jails MentalGuy (or not if he wants to play mind games with scum)
Mahaloth chooses a Vanilla Target from the set {sachertorte, Suburban Plankton, pedescribe}
Vigilante kills Vanilla Target chosen by Mahaloth
Doc protects Vanilla Target chosen by Mahaloth

Then tomorrow we will know whether or not we have a Doc.

We need consensus so I call for an up and down vote on this proposal. With 18 players 9 is a split, 10 is a majority.
I vote Yes.

This is to prove the existence of a Doc, correct?

Why again, is that important?

I like the vanilla, non-vanilla claims better. But there isn’t time.

[Gadarene]

@special_ed

This is to prove the existence of a Doc, correct?

Why again, is that important?

To figure out whether the sleepers have been awakened yet (given the lack of a chicken claim today) and, consequently, to determine with precision the number of remaining Scum? Seems pretty important to me.

[Manwich]

Vote Yes to the plan. I agree we should find out if we have a doc to put us in a better position for the claim tomorrow.

I agree that my day one vote makes me look suspicious but in my defence:

• I thought Pleonast was a distraction and was going to get lynched because he was annoying.
• It’s my first game, so it took me a while to get my head around things.

After catching up over breakfast, I can’t see any reason not to:

**vote septimus
**

For what I said previously - the timing of his vote-switch away from Pleo and his weird (incomprehensible to me at least) reasoning about why we should delay Pleo’s lynch.

[special_ed]

@storyteller0910

For someone who wants everyone to know he supports Pleonast’s lynch, ed’s actual in-thread actions all seemed directed at avoiding a Pleonast lynch.

Summary and vote to follow.

This completely omits all of my discussion about Pleonast and how I viewed him. I was in complete agreement with sachertorte that everything he did didn’t really give us any information about his alignment, but the play was so anti-Town that I couldn’t really be upset about his lynch.

[special_ed]

@Gadarene

To figure out whether the sleepers have been awakened yet (given the lack of a chicken claim today) and, consequently, to determine with precision the number of remaining Scum? Seems pretty important to me.

OK, thanks.

My brain isn’t in the game as much as I’d like it to be. Actually, it is, it just isn’t as good at it as I’d like it to be.

[Gadarene]

@special_ed

OK, thanks.

My brain isn’t in the game as much as I’d like it to be. Actually, it is, it just isn’t as good at it as I’d like it to be.

Believe me, I know how you feel.

[sachertorte]

That’s 8 Yes. Just short of consensus with 90 minutes to go.
Also, Mahaloth has not indicated his choice of Vanilla. I guess I’m the default.