I knew that. :smack:
Just pretend my previous post did not exist, then. I am really not focusing very well right now.
I vote Yes as well
Abstain. I don’t see it as a bad plan, but I don’t know that I like starting this kind of gambit this early in the game. I may change my mind after the Night.
I’m going to vote
No
Either
a) the sleepers still sleep
or
b) there is +1 scum and +1 doc
I don’t fancy shrinking the vanilla pool just to find out right now, as it is information we could get for free through straightforward analysis of dawn reveals.
I’m going to vote No, for a couple of reasons:
I don’t like the idea of directing Town Powers.
I have a problem with the conditional attached to the Jailer (“or not if he wants to play mind games with scum”); if we’re going to come up with a plan to follow, then part of the plan needs to be that everyone involved follows the plan. As written, the Jailer would appear to have the option to jail “someone else”. What if he chooses to exercise that option, and happens to jail the Doc?
I vote yes.
OK. We have virtually no time left. This game is killing me, because by far my least productive days for Mafia playing are Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and a lot of the activity seems to be concentrated on those days (especially toDay). I’m disappointed that sach’s more in-depth plan has gained such limited traction (I’m agnostic on the revised version, as I think it’s of limited utility but also limited risk), as it is an excellent idea and would benefit us tremendously, but given the limited time left in the Day I’d rather focus on actual game study.
So, Project #1 – the Lynch of Pleonast
Pleonast claimed early – on page 3. I would imagine that this was a source of some consternation to his fellow Scum, but in retrospect he really had little choice; had he not claimed something, he would have been the subject of scrutiny for unusual behavior. At least the way he did it, he stood a chance of getting some people who would assume it was just Pleo being Pleo.
Zeriel is the first vote (#162): He cites, as reasoning, basically everything Pleonast has done so far. I view this as an essentially neutral vote. If Z is Town, it’s reasonable; if Z is Scum, well, he had to know that someone was going to vote for Pleo; why not Z?
Sachertorte goes back and forth with Pleonast but does not vote. My reading of sachertorte’s tone here reinforces my feeling that sach is himself Town. If sach were Scum bussing a Scumbuddy, he’d have given Pleonast both barrels, I think, and not experienced so much internal conflict.
Mental Guy also votes Pleonast (#187). Probably the Cop, so I won’t waste time talking about this vote.
peeker at #194, re Pleo’s “vote for self-preservation voters” policy:
I am moderately nonplussed that peeker, who has been known to vote for players early and often, goes this far without actually placing a vote. Curious.
Drain Bead votes Pleonast at #202. She was third-party, thus there’s little to be gained by examining her motivations.
Gadarene votes Pleonast at #208. He is extremely defensive about the fact that his vote is a “me too” vote. Under the circumstances, I do not have a problem with the “me too” nature of the vote – what more was there to say, really, about Pleo’s position? – but Gad’s pre-emptive defensiveness in this post is noteworthy in light of future developments. Hang with me a bit.
septimus votes Pleonast at #212. There’s not much to say about this vote, but I just want to point out that by now, Pleonast has five votes. Three unknowns: septimus, Gadarene, and Zeriel. I view it as a strong possibility that at least one of the three is Scum, as I don’t think Scum would have completely avoided Pleonast’s bandwagon.
pedescribe votes Pleonast at #216. No justification provided in the voting post.
Plankton at #217:
That statement, while not dispositive of anything, does not exactly fill me with confidence about the Townieness of the speaker in light of Pleo’s actual alignment, especially when it is accompanied by a vote for Mahaloth (Town), at the time the major viable not-Pleo candidate.
He follows it with this:
This whole thing reads so much like a exhortation to Pleonast to stop talking about the stuff the stupid Townies are mad about and start playing the game so you can sneak under the noose at least for a Day or two that it moves Plankton to the top of my own suspicion list, at least for now.
At #221 Guiri says that Pleo’s behavior is “leaning scummy,” but opts not to vote. I don’t understand this post (as I said sometime thereafter).
peeker votes Pleo at #230. Cites Plankton’s second post as reproduced above. Fair enough.
By now we are 24 hours from the end of the Day, and Pleonast has seven votes. His next nearest competitor is Mahaloth, with two. We know that there was a late, sudden action that nearly spared Pleonast. I’ll look at that in the next post.
Why would the Jailer choose to jail a random vanilla in this construction? Did the Jailer get hit on the head recently? The Jailer would jail either Mental Guy or, if he wants to roll the dice, Mahaloth. Any other decision would be very silly.
I vote yes.
storyteller:
Except the Scum can strategize during the Day, so presumably Plankton (if he were Scum) could just give Pleonast that message directly on their off-board forum.
The point of the plan is an existence proof for the Doc. The existence proof requires coordination of Town powers. i.e., directing Town Powers.
The Jailer runs independent of this proof. The Jailer has done well using his own instincts so is free to protect or not protect MentalGuy at his discretion. Whether he does so or not makes no difference to the Doc experiment.
I vote No. I thought we were trying to rid ourselves of Vanilla claimants quickly, but you waste a Vig-kill this way if we have a Doc, and also let Scum NK a Town Power (Mahaloth).
An alternative, if we agree that having Doc is very likely, is that Jailer Jail Mahaloth and Doc protect Mental Guy. (We got an Investigate this way, as well as not wasting the Vig-kill.)
If instead we think it likely that Scum have tricked us into thinking we have a Doc, we could ask for Doc, if any, to use his judgment and possibly claim now. (I’d rather not guess the odds of that Scum trick, myself. 
)
[QUOTE=sachertorte]
No one needs to claim Not-Vig. I’m not sure why you are thinking that.
[/QUOTE]
During the mass claim, there are unlikely to be more than zero or one Scum who claim Power, so the Daily Lynches will come from the “Vanilla” pool. Obviously we want neither to Lynch the Vig, nor force him to claim, so it may be very convenient to have one player claiming Vanilla Not Vig. Since I seem to be a prime Lynch candidate anyway, I’ve already volunteered that claim.
Well that’s the issue right there. We don’t know for sure if we have a Doc or not. But Scum DO. Therefore if we leave the Doc to protect MentalGuy there is a non-zero risk that MentalGuy will die.
Of course I’m not against having the Doc protect MentalGuy AND allowing for the Jailer to independently decide that jailing MentalGuy is the right move.
My proposal would be to lynch from the power-role pool (not the vanilla pool). We won’t lynch Town Powers willy-nilly. They will have the opportunity to claim. The only way we will accidentally lynch a Town Power is if a scum counter-claims (or vice versa) and we have to make a choice. But either way, we’re going to find scum.
The Vanilla Pool will be handled by the Vigilante.
How is this superior to the power roles full claiming and theng scrutinising the duplicates?
Moving on.
Cookies adds an eighth vote to Pleonast at #236. Not much to say here.
Wolverine adds a vote on Mahaloth.
Now Mental Guy bails on Pleonast and votes for septimus (#254). Whatever, he’s the Cop. The thing that matters here is that suddenly there is a crack, through which maybe, just maybe, Pleonast can escape. What happens?
Very shortly thereafter (#265), Manwich votes Mahaloth. It’s 7-4, Pleonast vs. Mahaloth.
septimus unvotes Pleo (#268). 6-4.
Two quick votes, by Guiri and ed, for Astral Rejection. Dunno what to say about this. Their reasoning is not unfair.
Now septimus moves his vote (at #284) to Mahaloth (6-5).
So, in the space of less than fifty posts, we have gone from Pleonast as the dramatic leader to a very close thing. The Scum role-blocker, previously a sure lynch, is suddenly in danger of surviving. Who has contributed? Wolverine, Manwich, Mental Guy (Town), and septimus. I’d lay odds that at least one of those three (Wolverine, Manwich, septimus) is Scum.
Wanderers votes Pleonast at #288. If Wanderers is Scum, this is an incredibly ballsy grab for Town cred at the cost of a role-blocker, because he has halted the massive shift in the voting. Major pro-Town points for Wanderers.
I vote for Guiri at #306. My reasoning may be found at that post. I continue to think that Guiri treated Pleonast in an odd way – calling his actions anti-Town and leaning Scummy, then rejecting the characterization that he (Guiri) was talking about how Scummy Pleonast was and also refusing to place a vote.
Time goes by. sach votes for Astral. 7-5-4 (Pleo-Mahaloth-Astral).
Tom Scud (Town) adds vote #8 to Pleonast at #327. OK.
Gadarene unvotes Pleo at #384. Quoth Gadarene (vote bleached):
Hrm. Do I think a Scum Gadarene does this, at this moment, in this particular way? Kind of no, actually. I think a Scum Gadarene looks for an alternative target first, so that if he jumps off the bandwagon it doesn’t look as bad when Pleo flips and someone does exactly what I’m doing now. But…
Mental Guy returns to Pleonast, re-anchoring Pleo’s lead over Mahaloth at 8-5.
And now? Gadarene votes Mental Guy (#394). The reasoning is sound. But the timing is suspect. Gad goes off to “find a better lynch candidate” and finds one awfully quickly. Raises an eyebrow.
Drain Bead follows fast, and unvotes Pleonast to do it. Whoopsie. 7-5-2.
Tom and peeker follow suit VERY quickly, both unvoting Pleonast to do it, and offering no explanations. What a turn! 5-5-4!
septimus moves from Mahaloth to Astral. Honestly, septimus’ meanderings here don’t read like the moves of a Scum in a tense situation. Why not move to Mental Guy, if you’re Scum?
Votes for Mental Guy follow from Astral Rejection (#420). THEN, at #444, Plankton votes for Pleonast. Reversing my previous field, I think Plankton is either the Godfather or Town, because there is NO WAY a vanilla Scum does this to the Scum role-blocker in a situation like this just for Town cred.
Pleo votes MentalGuy (self-defense vote, yay!). It’s tied.
ed breaks the tie in favor of MentalGuy at #509. This vote has gotten not much scrutiny, as far as I can see. MentalGuy claims almost immediately thereafter, and there is the predictable bail (ed among the first to bail), but had MentalGuy been vanilla and not claimed, it is very likely, I think, that ed’s vote would have preserved Pleonast and caused the death of MentalGuy. I’m not saying this means ed is Scum, but I am saying – we should notice this.
Gadarene, when he unvotes, does not revote Pleo. He says he has explained why in the past, but I can’t find the explanation anywhere. But I do notice this exchange: Pleo says, at #529:
To which Gadarene promptly responds, with eye-roll smiley:
I simply don’t think a Scum Gadarene replies to a Scum Pleonast in this particular fashion. I regard Gadarene as likely Town on the basis of the evidence as a whole, in spite of some things that make me nervous.
At #545, this, from special ed (bleached):
For someone who wants everyone to know he supports Pleonast’s lynch, ed’s actual in-thread actions all seemed directed at avoiding a Pleonast lynch.
Summary and vote to follow.
Whoa!! Did you read what I wrote? At most zero or one Scum are likely to claim Power. Supposing for definiteness zero do, we have a Doc, and we claim now. The count is 6-12. We may or may not choose to force all 6 powers to state their roles, but we must then Lynch from the vanilla pool to get the winning sequence 5-10, 4-8, etc. If I take your words literally, you’d be Lynching our Powers as fast as Scum can NK them! :smack:
True, one (or at most two) Scum could fake a Power claim, and I think we’d then need full-role claims. The only claims that could be faked are Doc and Jailer (*); these are also the favorite Scum targets so such a fake claim would tend to self-defeat. I don’t think we’d need special hurry to Lynch those fakes, but even if we did most of the Lynches would come from the Vanilla pool.
(* - Perhaps another reason to Jail Mahaloth, since if he’s NK’ed without breadcrumbing we could have two Fake Masons! But I doubt that would hurt.)
Maybe it’s not.
In my mind, it makes the job of the doc and jailer easier each Night.
Also, full claiming gives all the information to the scum in a way that they can use at Night. By claiming in piecemeal, we only deal with a single counterclaim at once, which is arguably better, but maybe not. I guess, at the very least, it is not worse.
There are not going to be any duplicates. No one has said this yet, but in a mass claim situation the Scum will all claim Vanilla if the Vig is still alive. What else are they going to claim? Fake claim Vig? You’re dying that Night. Fake claim Doctor? We’ll leave both of you alive, have the Vig target one or the other and tell you both to self-protect. Neither dies, then the Vig has a target for the following Night.
Fake claim Mason? Good-bye.
Fake claim Jailer? OK, but your maximum life expectancy is one Day. You can get the real Jailer lynched, but you’ll die that Night.
In a mass claim situation, the Scum will all claim vanilla and then kill power roles. It’s the only way they have a chance in such a situation.
…and by the way, the reason I like sach’s original plan (everyone claims vanilla or not-Vanilla, and the Vig lies) is that it will help tremendously with more detailed analyses of voting. If I knew for sure that 4-5 additional players were Town, I could draw much better conclusions.
I vote yes on the overnight plan.
But if we want to prove the existence of the Doc, then they need to protect whoever the Vig shoots at. I would like to see the plan put in place exactly the was sach outlined it.
I agree with putting off any mass claim until tomorrow.
Scum all choosing to claim vanilla town would be AWESOME!
Then all the Town Powers would be confirmed Period. No contention. No Messiness.
Then we lynch and vig from the Vanilla Pool (as you stated. Sorry I misunderstood). If we try to lynch the Vig, the Vig will claim. If uncountered, we have another confirmed. Will Scum try to kill him?
Yup.
Do we have a protector? Maybe. possibly. hopefully.
But the bottom line is we are now looking for a scum in a much smaller pool.
Also, our protectors would have a solid confirmed Town pool to protect. Any successful protection would seriously impair the already weakened scum.
And don’t forget, we actually play the game. I never said the proposed plan was a guarantee of success, but a compelling use of the Vigilante. No matter what we do if we try to lynch the Vigilante he is going to have to claim. This is true if we vanilla claim or not. In other words, I don’t think it is fair to say, “but if we try to lynch the Vigilante we lose advantage.” This is true in BOTH cases.
Two fake masons would be AWESOME! Hell, I’ll take three :).