except a non-Vanilla would know they couldn’t be recruited.
Don’t worry at all about the game. Thoughts and prayers for you and everyone else there.
Try to put yourself in the mindset of the Scum.
At Night, they have to try to recruit a sleeper. They know the sleepers think they are Vanilla. Therefore, it makes it a better chance to try to recruiit a claimed Vanilla.
No one claims to have had a recruitment attempt made upon them on Night 2. This means that either the Scum didn’t try or they were successful. I think it much more likely they tried.
Who would the Scum have been likely to target? a Vanilla who had slipped? Wouldn’t that thought occur to you?
Maybe they didn’t try on Night 1 because they thought Idle has indicated Vanillaness. Maybe they thought it might be too obvious and Suburban would be lynched. Maybe Idle is Scum and faked it to gain Townie Cred while they waited until Night 2.
Regarding the plans: They seem about equal to me. But what I am sure of is that everyone needs to be on the same page for the plans. If we’re doing the mason only plan and the doctor claims not-vanilla, that will screw us up majorly. To that end, I suggest that we not enact either plan until everyone has officially weighed in, and a consensus can be arrived at.
I vote for the Masons-Only plan
I am so proud.
But seriously, I’m just vanilla town this time. No tricks.
By the same sort of reasoning, though, it would make sense to avoid targeting SubPlank, since he was likely to come under heavy fire at some point for his slip.
have we decided whether we are going with the pearson or fisher plan?
i saw this one and thought it was funny.
Who is the most famous Statistician?
George Washington. He claimed he never told a lie and got away with it!
and while i understand the mechanics of what is trying to be accomplished i was going back over some old college textbooks trying to figure out normal distributions and outcome resolution in both random and semi random environments given the linear nature of this exercise and frankly couldn’t find the formula that would really address what we are mathematically trying to accomplish. but then i merely made it to inferential and kind of hosed that course anyways.
i never thought i would say this. i wish chronos was here.
vote mason-only claim. Based on the way I assess the risks, I’m more comfortable making the scum shoot in a larger pool.
Day 4 Vote Tally
Suburban Plankton(2) :ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies[1130], Mental Guy[1131]
Astral Rejection(1) :guiri[1124]
pedescribe(1) :sachertorte[1127]
ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies(1) :Zeriel[1132]
Did Not Vote:Mahaloth,Gadarene,pedescribe,Suburban Plankton,Idle Thoughts,Manwich,Astral Rejection,storyteller0910,One and Only Wanderers,peekercpa,special ed
With these votes Suburban Plankton would be lynched.
this seems to make the most sense to me as well. it kind of forces scum to go on a mason killing frenzy or be firing away into the unknowns hoping to kill the doc (which i assume we have after two Days of no “chicken” message) or vig. it gives mental at least one read or as many as the doc lasts. of course if we get unlucky in our lynch choices and/or vig decisions then town be fucked. additionally if mental gets a town read on the gf then it will most likely boil down to three handed anyways. and to a great extent that is the danger of the mechanical approach. toDay and yesterDay have been more wrapped around the “plans” than anything else. so we spend an inordinate amount of time regarding plan a, plan b or no plan whatsoever which gives scum a skate while not guaranteeing success ultimately.
I’ve had a serious dearth of time lately to play this game. Regardless, a typical Astral-style wow is coming in the evening at some point.
Regardless of which plan we settle on, we still need to look for scum.. We’ve done almost NONE of that so far. This conversation about plans is choking out other discussion.
I also vote for the Mason-only plan.
As for the joke/slip, I think the old adage applies that there is an element of truth to things said while “just kidding”, or that jokes work as jokes because of the element of truth to them, or however the old wives say it.
Hey, I found someone lying about the vote record to smear the by-god most absolutely pro-town single vote of Day One, that’s scummy enough for me.
I wasn’t lying about the vote record. I misinterpreted the day-ending vote count in a way that didn’t even impact my analysis, swapping out one null tell for another.
You are trying quite hard to defend Suburban here, Z and I can see only one pro-town reason for you to do so and that is if you’re both the remaining Masons.
While I acknowledge that Plankton COULD have been a sleeper (a 25% chance) if he’s actually vanilla, his vote for Pleo on Day One is the single most pro-town action by an unknown that has happened all game, period.
Which has exactly zero bearing on a possible recruitment. Actually, it doesn’t have zero bearing. It could be argued that it would make him even more attractive as a potential recruit when paired with his slip. A recruit with Townie cred is a fatter fish on the hook than someone with no read or carrying heat.
I’m against the mason claim plan.
The mason claim plan only buys us something if we need to eliminate the masons from possible vig kill or lynch. Unless we start lynching unclaimed players, I see no reason for masons to identify themselves as they aren’t in danger of anything. Furthermore, identifying the masons makes the hiding pool for the Doc and Vig smaller.
If we wind up lynching Suburban Plankton, pedescribe, or myself, we have little reason to think that we are lynching a mason. Furthermore if the Vig kills from that same set, the masons are safe from the vig kill.
The only reason I see for the masons to claim is to lubricate vote record analyses, but given the short Day compounded by the big chunk of “weekend” in the middle of it, I don’t see how a Mason claim is going to buy us a better target for lynch.
I think the best bet is to say nothing, kill off two of the claimed vanillas and revisit the mess later.
I agree with this.
I would hope that we can come to a decision toDay however, so that we don’t spend any time toMorrow discussing what we are going to do.
My vote toMorrow is for the **Vanilla **claim plan. The only change might be if the Scum kill the doc or the Vig overNight.
oh, and
Vote: Suburban Plankton
The more I think about it, the more it seems possible that either:
- The Scum didn’t try on Night 1 and allowed Idle to fake the recruitment attempt claim. Then they shot at Suburban, the most likely target.
- The Scum tried for Idle first, thinking Suburban might get heat on day 2. When it wasn’t too bad, they took their shot at him on Night 2. (or Night 3 even.)
That’s fine, but at the same time, you used that vote as ANTI-Town cred. Meaning you either didn’t actually look at your case, or you’re trying a snow job. Either way, I like the odds with yah, Cook.
NETA stupid hitting enter early. Even if there’s a 25% chance he’s scum, now, there’s a 100% chance your case includes anti-town elements designed to mislead.
To be fair, the way Red listed the votes does make it appear as if Suburban’s vote was the last vote Pleo received that Day. Looking at it though, it should become apparent that it was not the case.
I think you’re correct. Keeping the unknown pool as large as possible is optimal for the Vig and the probable Doc. Scum already know the alignment of the 3 presumed/claimed VTs and so toNight they are looking for the Doc and Vig in a pool of between 7 and 10 while there’s no risk of a forced power role claim or of the Vig killing the Doc or a mason. The pool remains the same if we lynch and Vig from the 3 claimants however, if we lynch someone else, the pool could drop to between 6 and 9.
A mason claim reduces the initial pool to between 5 and 8 and an attempt to lynch outside the claimed/presumed VTs could reduce the pool to as few as 4.
But the part I was struggling with is: if this is the best bet for the survival of the Doc and Vig, is it automatically the best strategy for a Town win? If by reducing the scum’s chances of killing the Vig and the Doc (who may also be self-protecting), we increase their likelihood of killing lynchable players and reducing the pool of unknowns where they can hide, then yes.
The pool contains at least the Doc, Vig, 2 Masons, 3 vanillas, scum have a 29% chance of taking out the Doc or Vig (good for them, bad for us), 29% chance of taking out a mason (not so bad), 42% chance of taking out a VT (bad for them). The other extreme is the pool containing the Doc, Vig, 2 Masons and all 6 vanillas. A 20% chance of losing the Doc or Vig, a 20% chance of losing a mason and a 60% chance of losing a VT.
So, OK, I’ve understood the suggestion and see its value in preventing a scum win. I’ll add a partially mechanical vote:
Unvote
Vote Suburban
I don’t think scum, after losing their roleblocker Day 1, could afford to not attempt to recruit. The lack of claims of failed recruitment attempts on Days 3 and 4 would indicate they were successful. On Night 2, they had a 1 in 4 chance of waking Suburban compared to a 1 in 7 chance of waking someone else making him the likeliest choice. The apparent lack of further attempts make me suspect they were successful.