As for now, I think the remaining masons should remain unclaimed.
I stated it my case, but I think it is clear that it was included as seeing his scum-lynching vote as a null tell. The alternative is to say that my case that I think he is now scum, or even a portion of it, was based on him lynching scum, which is rather ridiculous.
I was not going to give him credit for lynching scum on Day 1, even if I didn’t think he had been recruited, because upon looking (quickly) at the closing day’s vote count I thought (erroneously) that he had voted last.
It did become apparent that was not the case when I looked at it later.
Your refusal to see acknowledge the case against Suburban and the imho weak case on me has you rising up my list, Z, but I think Suburban should go first.
I vote for the Masons-claim plan, though I acknowledge that all the yay or nay votes in the world don’t really matter; it’s up to the two folks in question.
As for the rest, I will make an effort to work on this tomorrow. Mondays are usually as bad for me as weekend days - this is the worst possible Day setup for me - but given the circumstances I will try.
Not decided whether I agree with it or not yet, but the case (theory?)against Suburban would have had him believing he was town at this point so it fits just fine.
i’m going back to where my vote was yesterDay.
vote gad.
and i still don’t get the non mason claim thingy. i mean if neither the masons, potential doc or vig claim a power role then it seems we are already there. and if the masons don’t claim it seems preposterous to think that the potential doc and/or vig claiming seems like a good idea. and if it’s just some combination of the masons, potential doc and/or vig i am still unclear how that really provides any benefit other than shrinking our lynch pool and any potential vig target. in all cases it seems like mason claiming is kind of a cornerstone for any effectiveness. and since our one claimed mason thinks it is a bad idea i’m willing to trust his judgement.
unless of course we have already effectively enacted the vanilla/power claimy proposal (with the understanding that neither masons, potential doc, or vig claim). in which case i highly recommend that we follow that strategy. therfore, since we are seemingly over that hurdle i propose that we not lynch mental or maha. additionally, i think the vig should stay away from killing them as well. in both of these cases it would be optimal if the lynch and vig kill are of the scum variety but even if it’s not a mason, potential doc or vig we will at least shrink the unknown vanilla pool. and our potential doc should protect whomever the scum target for a Night kill.
gd, this is an easy game.
Vote Suburban
I do think that the scum awoke a sleeper N2, because that explains why no one else has reported receiving the message
(If I were scum I would have carried on sending out the awake message redundantly even after a recruitment)
Whether or not that successful recruitment was Suburban though is another question.
So if I understand it correctly, the primary argument against me is “You were probably Town at the beginning of the game, but we think you made yourself a likely target for recruitment, so that means you might be Scum now, so we’re going to lynch you. No hard feelings…”
I understand the argument (though I don’t think it’s quite as persuasive as some of you apparently do), but I obviously can’t defend myself against the charge of “being a Sleeper”, since that charge is not based on anything I did or did not do. Oh well…I suppose the one thing I can do at this point is that which it seems a fair portion of the Town has forgotten we are supposed to be doing: namely, identifying Scum.
I’ll admit to being very confused in this game. Circumstances kept me from following along in real-time for most of Days 2 and 3, and rereading after the fact hasn’t really helped due to the fact that the majority of the discussion has been around whether or not to have a mass claim, and if so what type. With that said, I will
vote storyteller
He suggested that we not lynch Drain Bead, instead leaving her to the Vig. From the Scum perspective, that would have guaranteed that the Vig would target a non-Scum. He then admitted that this was a bad idea in this particular game, but then continued to push that argument anyway. He ended the Day with no vote, and with FOS on Astral (unknown) and **Mahaloth **(Mason).
Almost as soon as **Mahaloth **claimed, he started pushing for a claim from the other Masons. Then he says he supports **sachertorte’s **Vanilla/not-Vanilla claim plan. He ends the Day with a one-off vote on Ed, then Today throws a wrench in the proceedings by arguing *against ***sachertorte’s **plan and once again advocating a Mason-only claim.
I’ve read the various arguments, and counter-arguments, and supposting arguments, and rebutals to the supporting-counter-arguments, and I can hinestly say that I have no idea which is the ‘best’ plan at the moment. But it seems to me that there is a consensus that the Town is in pretty darn good shape with some sort of ‘mass claim’, because whichever of the competeing plans we go with, the Scum are going to be backed into a corner. It seems like the one thing that’s most dangerous at this point is continuing on for another Day or two doing nothing but discussing whether or not we should do something. Today, **storyteller **seems to be the primary culprit in doing just that. Combine that with Day 2 with his argument for and against lynching Drain Bead, and his being quite intent on having us extend the Day when it had devoved into meaningless discussion, and I think his primary goal is to sow confusion and discord, not to assist the Town in eliminating Scum.
I still found Guiri quite scummy. So, I decided to do a WoW of him.
Guiri:
101. Mechanics talk about scum sleeper and town doc.
102. Mechanics talk about the sleeper role preventing unforced VT claims, and why they would be anti-town.
125. Gives five reasons why there might be no “arise, chicken!” message. Misunderstood the quoted question in this post: Manwich and Wolverine were talking about someone CHOOSING not to post the message, not reasons why someone might not get one.
126. Realizes the mistake in 125 and clarifies that he was responding to a different post.
221. Laughs at Mahaloth’s vote and disagrees with voting for a player you don’t understand. Defends Wolverine. Argues against voting for Pleonast. Says he won’t vote for someone for a difference of opinion.
228. Mechanics talk about death of one sleeper making the other a non-winstealing survivor.
231. Defends Wolverine again from Mahaloth. This is tough for me to paraphrase effectively, so go read it yourself.
269. Defends against my accusations. Explains his posts. Does a quick WoW of me. Claims I misrepresent his posts. Votes Astral.
296. Defends line-by-line my rebuttal. Read it for yourself.
355. Denies that he suggest Pleo seemed scummy, says “anti-town” instead. Denies defending Pleo and waving away his scummy behavior.
578. Fluff. “Wow! Yay! Wow!”
669. Agrees that Drain needs to die, agrees that he hasn’t contributed to the discussion, won’t refute Astral’s accusations a second time. Reiterates that he votes for players he believes likely to be scum.
672. Defends against Cookies’ suggesting that Guiri said “absolutely nothing.” Says the post in question (669) was a response to Astral.
697. In response to Cookies, explains that he was explaining how he would evaluate Pleo’s actions. Says that he uses actions, votes, timing, reasoning, context, previous stances, etc to find scum.
702. Posts nightly order of events.
704. Says where the nightly order of events came from.
729. Explains advantages to leaving DSKB alive - full day’s post and vote record, chance to lynch scum, target for vig kill, but says the risk of a dead power role or vig outweighs the benefits.
762. Does a WoW of Gadarene. I don’t have the time to check its accuracy, so I hope Gadarene has done that. Finds some suspicious behavior in Gadarene. Says a WoW of Mahaloth is next.
801. Fluff. “Yay!”
833. Congrats to Jailor. Says that despite there being a fair amount of meat to his Gadarene case, urges Gadarene votes to reconsider because he can’t see a scummy Gadarene making the comments he did in 445 and 511. I’ve got to be misunderstanding this post… read it yourself.
847. Defends Mahaloth. Raises all sorts of reasons to vote for Mahaloth, each of which Guiri suggests have “scum motivation.” Questions Manwich, Wolverine, and Gadarene. Agrees with Sach’s reason for voting for Mahaloth.
851. Does a WoW of Mahaloth. Again, I hope Mahaloth checked it for accuracy. Repeats many of the scummy finds posted in the previous post.
855. Does another WoW of Astral. Votes for Astral at the end.
885. Rebuts my corrections to his WoW.
938. Explains the problems with a mass claim.
943. Says Suburban would be a good Vig target.
1047. Votes yes for the plan to keep the vig hidden in the vanilla pool.
1096. Is ready to claim when it’s his turn.
1124. Votes Astral again for reasons given on day 1 and 3. Says we have a good chance of lynching scum today… even though he’s the only person voting for me. It’s the first vote of the day.
1147. Hopes Manwich and his family are well. I agree with this.
1180. Discusses his understanding of the plan to clarify it for himself. Agrees with the plan. Unvotes Astral, Votes Suburban. Believes that scum woke Suburban due to increased chance of success with Suburban and lack of further attempts.
It took me too long to read all the posts and put this together. I’ve got to leave now. Analysis will come later. Guiri, it’s vitally important that you check my WoW and make sure I’ve been accurate.
I’m also quite suspcious of both **Ed **and **Cookies **at this point. Both of them seem to be having trouble figuring out why they are voting for me…is it because I have been Scum since the beginning? Or is it because I was recruited?
Or is it because they know I’m Town and are just trying to get on board a bandwagon?
I think that is a false dilemma. The reason I can’t put my finger on exactly which it is at this point is because I only have the information that is on the table upon which to base a decision. I think it is more likely that you didn’t start the game as scum, though.
Here were your reasons for voting for me.
Items a and b suggest that I was Scum from Day 1 (or in the case of a that I was *trying *to get recruited, which really makes no sense at all, since I couldn’t have know if I was a Sleeper or not).
Items c, d, and e suggest that I was recruited.
Items f and g are subjective enough that they are null-tells, so why did you include them? Especially f, which you say you agree with… :dubious:
You seem to be covering all your bases in one fell swoop here…
Oh, hey, I got a vote! I’ll address it if time permits, but for the moment I’d rather work on other things, as I do not appear in imminent danger of lynching 
First, re-reviewing the lynch of Pleonast in light of subsequent developments. Here’s a quote from my initial summary.
Based on this reasoning, and if I am correct in my vague, half-formed opinion that Gadarene is more likely Town than Scum based on his responses to Pleonast, I view Zeriel as a suspect on purely mechanical terms.
Later, again quoting from my own summary:
This one requires somewhat fewer conditionals. Of the four players responsible for the initial vote swing from Pleonast to not-Pleonast, only one remains unknown and the other three are Town. Manwich stands out strongly here, certainly enough to earn a more in-depth look and possibly enough to warrant a vote. Unfortunately, with Manwich out of action at the moment (understandably so!), I’d prefer to wait on pursuing this further until he’s back to participate in the discussion.
For the rest, I continue to maintain suspicion of ed. He twice voted in ways that would increase the chance that Pleonast would survive the end of Day One, while maintaining throughout that he’d be happy to see Pleonast lynched. While I understand that this could be the behavior of a confuzzled Townie, it is also exactly the behavior I’d expect of Scum in that situation.
Two players continue to not stand out to me: peeker and pedescribe. Both are usually much more high-profile players than they have been in this game, especially peeker. This makes me extremely nervous, enough to pursue it further in future Days.
I continue to feel that Wanderers, Gadarene, and sachertorte are variously more likely Town than Scum. Plankton also acted in a way on Day One that would not be consistent with Scum - helping to reverse the momentum away from Pleonast and helping to secure the lynch of the Scum role-blocker.
I’m going to:
vote special ed
OOG: I am genuinely sorry for my weak participation in this game. I have resolved to pass on any future games with unpredictable schedules or Days that happen over weekends, as I am almost never available on weekends and this makes several games in a row where this has affected my participation. Sorry to all.
I’m intrigued. There are a number of inaccuracies in your WoW but I do not know if these are in any way relevant to your promised analysis.
So we have a little over 2 hours left in the Day. By my count, we have 5 votes for me based on me being “the player most likely to have been recruited”, we have 5 one-off votes, and 5 people who haven’t voted at all.
That’s not good.
If you were Town on Day 1, the slip was really really bad play. That is the problem with the theory that it was indeed a slip made by a Townie, because I think you are a stronger player than that.
I was for the mass claim and The Plan that had been formulated up through Day 3, though it has evolved since then, and I’m now in favor of the Mason-only claim option. So those last two points show how your play/opinions about a couple of things have been contrary to mine and are therefor included as data points in my case.
If you go back a bit I said I was going to try and overlap some things in my analysis and see what stuck out:
Voting records
Opinion on mass claim
Opinion on The Plan as of Day 3
That lead me to you and my post ties in the analysis that I said I was going to do along with acknowledgment of null tells and other opinions about your play.
Day 4 Vote Tally
Suburban Plankton(5) :ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies[1130], Mental Guy[1131], special ed[1176], guiri[1180], Mahaloth[1186]
pedescribe(1) :sachertorte[1127]
ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies(1) :Zeriel[1132]
Gadarene(1) : peekercpa[1185]
storyteller0910(1) :Suburban Plankton[1188]
special ed(1) :storyteller0910[1193]
Astral Rejection(0) :[del]guiri[1124-1180][/del]
Did Not Vote:Gadarene,pedescribe,Idle Thoughts,Manwich,Astral Rejection,One and Only Wanderers
With these votes, Suburban Plankton would be lynched.
Day 4 ends in about 1.25 hours.
I don’t have much time today. My final thoughts.
I think killing from the {Suburban Plankton, pedescribe, sachertorte} set is fine. I would have preferred to enact the Vanilla claim so that the Vig had a better shot at hitting scum, but given the messed up day, I’ll take reduction of the unknown pool instead.
I do not like the mason claim plan. I still feel that vanilla claims is superior as leveraging the Vig power is more important than leveraging the Cop power – at least in my opinion. Though that equation would need to be reassessed in the morning based on what happens between now and then. Scum manage to hit a Mason during the night, I’d be more inclined for the mason claim. If they hit Vanilla, then Vanilla claim seems to be in order. I haven’t done a thorough analysis of it though. Whatever the case. We need to choose a claim and execute it ASAP! Then we can move onto more important business. To this end, I feel that we should NOT try to build consensus. Mahaloth and Mental Guy are likely to be alive in the morning, so the two of them should talk it out and quickly throw down an EDICT.
I will abide by this edict without question. (maybe a little grumbling) But we need the claim decision to be made QUICKLY and executed QUICKLY. Boom done! Sometimes we need a dictatorship. I think this is one of those times.
In the absence of a vanilla/not vanilla claim, I guess the mason claim is better than nothing, as we need the Vig to start shooting into the unknown pool with a better chance of hitting scum than we have been.
As for actual scum hunting.
I place my suspicions on Astral, Guiri, and storyteller.
Astral for trying to pin PIS on Zeriel without coming right out and saying it. That’s kind of old and it loses its luster as the days go by, but Astral hasn’t done anything to make me think “town” since either so there you go.
Guiri has not made a town impression on me at all all game. Usually by this point I feel that I would get some hint of townness from Guiri. The lack of that feeling is making me think Scum.
storyteller. Mainly because he’s been so nice to me. I find that unsettling.
But Honestly, I think there are plenty of clean-nosers too. OAOW, Manwich, peeker and Idle fit this category in my opinion.
While I do think a mass claim of some sort will be beneficial, I don’t really like the idea of throwing down an edict. While I favored the Mason claim option, I don’t really think it makes that much difference one way or the other and since Mahaloth prefers the Masons to not reveal themselves, I am fine with going for the vanilla-non vanilla claim.
I agree that if we lose a mason overNight, then the vanilla claim plan is better.
You keep coming back to this. I’m not sure why you vote me over sachertorte though. We both had the same stance.
We got lucky lynching Pleonast. He did his usual song and dance. Even you didn’t suspect him.
I voted for Astral, yes. I even made a case.
I vote for Mental Guy, yes. I made a case.
I changed back to Astral, yes, because I had an actual case against him.
I never had a case against Pleo. I didn’t buy into the case against Pleo. The only thing against Pleo was his anti-Town play and his Vanilla claim (making him a potential sleeper).
So, I didn’t vote for him, but I didn’t oppose his lynch. His play was anti-Town. It’s really not that difficult to understand.