damn, this thread’s dying too fast!!
Ok put a twist on the thread (to keep it alive) supposing PDR of China takes over Taiwain then what?
Does the economy grow? Fall? Do the other national like Vietnam (traditionally at odds with China) take notice.
I would answer this question myself but my answer would be so brilliant there would be no need to discuss it further 
In the short term, it probably wouldn’t be so bad; the CCP isn’t going to consciously kill the golden-egg-laying goose. (cf: Hong Kong). But in the long term, the PRC gov’t is incapable of realizing that a dynamic economy requires a certain kind of environment, with things like Rule of Law, Freedom of Speech and Information, etc, and those things would start getting whittled away before long (cf: Hong Kong).
I’ve always felt that Taiwan would eventually have to join with China, but only when China was democratic. You can’t even call China communist under strict definitions, whether this happens in the foreseeable future is very possible. In any case while Taiwan’s GDP is growing the country as a whole is declining. Theres prosperity everywhere but pollution is rampant. Health care is horrible and people are getting diabeties and cancer at an alarming rate. The price of industrialization is so steep for a once beautiful land. Corruption and governmnent bumbling is correctable but the other cases are steeper hurdles to overcome. That is why reunification is important because of growth and newer opportunities (and so the Tawanese can hide their waste under a larger rug).
Marxx: just a minor point. The Beijing government is not “the PDR of China” but the People’s Republic of China.
I agree with Mr. Sparkle in a way; while he says that he’s “always felt that Taiwan would eventually have to join with China, but only when China was democratic”. I’ve always felt that Taiwan would eventually have to join with China when monkeys fly out of my butt, which is essentially the same position.
I’m not sure, however, what possible correlation there might be between reunification and health care or environmental issues. And anyway, whatever problems Taiwan has in those areas, you can be sure that the mainland has it ten times worse. Ever hear of the Three Gorges Dam?
“Health care is horrible and people are getting diabeties and cancer at an alarming rate.” Complete nonsense. There are two great hospitals in Taipei–Mackay Memorial and Taiwan Adventist–and I never worried about inadequate health care in the six years that I lived there. And another thing: I never had to worry about going to the fucking poorhouse if I had an accident or needed some minor medical procedure performed. VERY nice national health insurance program there, provided that you have a job–which is generally not a problem, given the very low unemployment rates.
I don’t know about diabetes–never looked into the issue, never aware it was an issue–but high cancer rates are as much behavioral problems as anything, I think. A lot of people chew betel nut on the island, which is hell on the teeth and gums and is highly correlated with incidents of throat and mouth cancer. Not to mention smoking, of course. But anyway, it’s a moot point as far as reunification is concerned–even if cancer rates did have some possible bearing on the issue, I suspect that Taiwan would still have the advantage over the mainland. (LOT of smokin’ going on in the PRC.)
As far as the general environment is concerned, yeah, the cities can be pretty dirty from a laughably short-memoried Western point of view. (Asians are absolutely right to point out the hypocrisy of Western so-called environmentalists whose societies have historically been the biggest polluters on Earth; the Industrial Revolution didn’t start in China, bub.) But in terms of the general environment, I never found Taiwan to be all that bad: after driving half an hour out of Taipei, Kaohsiung, or Taichung, one can encounter some truly breathtaking scenery–and without one FUCKING Mickey Mouse hat in sight.
“Corruption and governmnent bumbling is correctable . . .” No argument about the corruption and government bumbling, but at least a person who speaks out on the issue doesn’t have to expect ten years in a gulag or a bullet in the back of the head.
“. . . but the other cases are steeper hurdles to overcome.” What, the health and environmental stuff? To reiterate: (A) this is a non-sequiter, having no bearing on reunification whatsoever, and (B) conditions are unquestionably worse on the mainland.
“That is why reunification is important because of growth and newer opportunities” Got news for you: the Taiwanese are already using the mainland for such purposes, and doing just fine, without “reunification”. If anything, liberalization and growing cross-Strait business over the past ten years has convinced the Taiwanese that reunification is neither necessary nor desireable. America does a tremendous amount of business with Mexico, but you don’t see too many US citizens agitating for political unification on the North American continent, do you?
DHR
I dont know the history of the area, but about 20 years ago, I did work with a guy that was Taiwanese. He said that the Taiwanese felt that the Nationalist Chinese that arrived there after the Chinese civil war were an invading army and that they deposed an independant Taiwanese government to set up shop as the Republic of China. The large Taiwanese majority was ruled under marshall law by a small chinese minority. His hope was that someday the original Taiwanese government could someday be reinstated.
Since then, I have read that the Taiwanese have been given the right to vote, but they still elect the Chinese Nationalists to protect them from the People’s Republic of China.
ElrayoX said, “Since then, I have read that the Taiwanese have been given the right to vote, but they still elect the Chinese Nationalists to protect them from the People’s Republic of China.”
That’s more or less correct, but it’s important to note that on a local level (i.e., city and county), the opposition Democratic Progressive Party has power over most of the island’s territory. Only on a national level is it seen as necessary to keep the Nationalits (aka Kuomintang, or KMT) in power so as to keep Beijing happy.
The real story about Taiwan right now is what’s going to happen in the runup to the next Presidential election in March 2000. Personality-wise, KMT candidate Lien Chan (currently Vice President), makes Al Gore look like Robin Williams. He’s facing a strong challenge by DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian (recently the popular mayor of Taipei, till he lost an election last year), who has never renounced his party’s pro-independence platform. Complicating matters further is the candidacy of a popular ex-“governor” of Taiwan “Province”, James Soong, who is also running for president against the wishes of his party (the KMT).
In short, the “Taiwanese” now have their first real chance to elect one of their own as leader of the whole island, and this is one big factor that is making Beijing jumpy right now. (Although many say that President Lee Teng-hui, himself a native-born Taiwanese, secretly supports independence and may actually favor the DPP to some extent. This of course makes the PRC even more suspicious.)
Got all that?
DHR
If Taiwan was independant before the Chinese Nationalists arrived, when was it a part of China? When was it called Formosa and why?
I just read furt’s historical perspective on the subject. Formosa sounds Japanese.
I have to say, after reading just 2 posts, that Monty, no matter how right you may be, you can say it nicer.
I believe Formosa is Portuguese.
Sorry to offend your sensibilities, Dave; however, I have exactly zero patience with bullshit posted as fact. You want nice, read something on etiquette–politics ain’t etiquette.
Formosa is indeed Portuguese for beautiful. The Portuguese basically sailed by, named it (for Europeans) and left. The Dutch colonized it for awhile, but Taiwan isn’t awash in natural resources, and the Dutch eventually left/were driven off. Formosa was the westerner’s name, though there are a few businesses around named “Formosa Tires” or whatever.
I essentially agree with Doghouse’s answers to Mr Sparkle. Yeah, much of Taiwan is crowded and dirty…but so is LA. It’s not some kind of ecological disaster zone, as parts of China and ex-USSR are. As for health care, I wasn’t afraid to have surgery here. (okay, a teensy bit.) Half the doctors are American trained!
Elrayox: A TON has changed in 20 years. Martial law ended in the 80s; the current, elected, president, Lee Teng Hui (A man with vision, brains and big brass balls) is native Taiwanese, has absolute control of the KMT, and has slowly but steadily pushing an agenda that is darn near pro-independance.
And Doghouse is right–the election next year is going to be huge. One of the many reasons LTH renounced the “One China” policy was as a way of framing the debate before the election. The candidates are having to define themselves in relation to the new policy. In the KMT’s defense, though, there are two other reasons people have voted for them: 1) the KMT has overseen the economic “miracle” and 2) the DPP and other opposition people had zero experience. But of course, with democracy now a decade old, more and more opposition candidates have experience at local-level governance, and sooner or later, the opposition will take over the presidency and legislature.
“It all started with marbles in school…”