Well, Mario Kart Wii is out today and Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360 and PS) is coming on Tuesday. Obviously, these three games will take the top three spots in the April sales chart that will be released in May. But how do you think the numbers will shake out?
For me, I think it’ll go like this…
Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) - 3.5 million
Mario Kart Wii - 2.1 million
Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3) - 1.8 million
Not bad estimates. I’m certain that GTA4 is going to do better numbers than Kart, but all of the core Nintendo series have done big launch business. Still, coming so close on the heels of Brawl may dampen some of the enthusiasm for Kart (I know I’m not picking it up until I get Okami and a few other recent titles that have caught my eye). So my guesstimate is a bit lower on Kart:
Kart - 1.5 million
GTA4 - over 4 million between all versions (let’s say 4.2 if we need to be precise)
I went to the only GameStop in the area that did a midnight release. There were 20 people in line for Mario Kart Wii. They’re expecting 150 at midnight for Grand Theft Auto. The Potbelly store next door is staying open past midnight for the release.
GTA will absolutely annihiliate Mario Kart’s numbers. I’d say at least by a 3-to-1 ratio. GTA is going to hit Halo-type numbers.
Midnight releases are more geared towards hardcore gamers who will play all night. This is GTA4’s bread and butter, not Mario Kart Wii’s. All of it’s big day one sales will come today, as people just randomly stroll into the stores to buy it.
And for comparison’s sake, Halo 3 sold 3.3 million copies in it’s first month on the charts:
http://majornelson.com/archive/2007/10/18/september-npd-numbers-are-in.aspx
And we all know Super Smash Bros Brawl did 2.7 million in it’s first month.
That’s great. Mario Kart (and I do like the game) won’t sniff GTA’s cross-console sales.
Also, the purchasing of the wheel will scare some ignorant folks away until they realize they don’t HAVE to use the wheel. I prefer the nunchuk.
Where did I ever said it would?
Nice guesses so far. I’d say that GTA will do about 4 million, evenly split between the PS3 and 360 versions. Mario Kart Wii will sell about 1.75 million.
I also think that we will see a big spike in PS3 sales as people who were holding out on next-gen hardware, but leaning towards the PS3, decide to take the plunge for GTA. The 360 GTA audience already owns a 360.
Are the guesses in this thread supposed to be first week? First month? Total for the year? U.S. only or worldwide? The OP mentions the April sales chart, but wouldn’t that only include two days of GTA IV sales?
I’m not going to hazard a guess, but I was just curious as to what others were basing their numbers on.
It would, and that’s what we’re guessing.
The guesses are also US sales only as I was basing it off of NPD data.
But the 360 does have the downloadable content. That’s definitely worth noting.
You never did, Justin Bailey. I was reiterating.
I’ve seen the argument put forth that outside of the hardcore game news junkies, the downloadable content isn’t very well known.
It’ll make a difference for Christmas sales of GTA4 (when the first downloadable “episode” is supposed to launch), but I don’t think it’ll matter tomorrow.
I can’t imagine the Wii Mario Kart being that successful - there’s been almost zero hype or information leading up to its release, and it appears to be absolutely no different than the last several iterations, including on the graphics front.
I think you’re wrong. Big displays in store. Tons of commericals on TV. And the hype online related to the Wii Wheel and online play.
It’s just been caught in the GTA4 tidal wave and is playing second fiddle to a much bigger franchise.
Nope. I’m as gamer as gamers get, and there’s been hardly a squeak about the game. I watched some of the previews online, and it looks identical to the last version. Why would anyone be excited about it?
I understand that you’re probably a big N fanboy, given your username and stuff, but get some perspective. MKwii looks like a lazy re-release more than any sort of new property.
It’s not quite a re-release. They seem to have scrapped a lot of the Double Dash nonsense and have a lot of the N64 and SNES Mario Kart goodness in its place. I think the colors are a little overwhelming; a more muted pallette would have been preferable, but that’s a minor bump. Mario Kart Wii is one of those must-buys for nostalgia’s sake (if you have a Wii, of course. I don’t know if it’s worth getting a Wii JUST for Mario Kart, though).
Mario Kart Wii has also improved upon the super-crappy online play and streamlined it a little bit. Compared to Xbox Live, it’s still REALLY bad, but it’s better from other Wii games.
For what it’s worth, I never got into the Smash Brothers stuff. It’s fun to play at a party, but I wouldn’t buy it. Give Mario Kart a shot, even if it’s only at GameStop in a display.
Then again, Mario Kart goes off the second I get back from GameStop with GTAIV.
Mario Kart Wii has already had extremely successful launches in Japan and Europe. IMO it has near-universal appeal for Wii owners and I will not be a bit surprised if it (eventually) becomes the Wii’s best-selling game.
It’s the reason I wanted a Wii.
Edit:
Have you seen Justin Bailey’s credentials?
What, the swimsuit?
No, the nifty-cool suit of armor over the skimpy swimsuit.
Sweet googoly moogoly. GTA is frickin’ awesome.