Do we have a bet?
Yep.
But, i am afraid, oh Freedom2, that you are busted. You are a hardcore, right-wing Republican, 100% behind Bush, and not a Naderite at all.
See, Naderites hate Bush more that Gore- or at least despise the 2 equally. But you have not spoken one word against Bush, and also have spoken little in favor of Nader. A Naderite would be crowing about Nader getting 5%, projected in some states- instead of quoting every poll that shows how well BUSH is doing. You constantly dis Gore- but you never attack Bush, also- which Naderites do.
And I think all this “Bush by a landslide” thing is all part of the Bush plan (oh, not YOU, personally)- they want Gore voters (mostly soft) to think there is no use voting anyway- they might as well stay home- or vote for Nader.
But, when Gore sqeaks by with 272 EC votes- the whole game will be up. In any case- you know that Bush won’t even get CLOSE to 400 EC votes- but you bet anyway. Why is that?
Yeah, count me in, too. As you know, I’ve postulated that Al Gore is going to win with 319 electoral votes according to this site that I made. Some of my predictions I’ll admit are for states that are simply too close to call right now—in particular, I’m thinking of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan—but I think Gore will win. Come what may, no one will get 400 electoral votes this time. In an election this close, that’s simply impossible.
The only other of *Freedom2’s predictions that I feel informed enough to comment on are his call that Bush will take California and that the Republicans will retain control of Congress. I maintain that California is definitely going for Gore, but I agree that Congress is staying under the thumb of the Republican party.
So, what’s the bet? Speak now…
What the hell are you raving about man? This Gore meltdown has really got your head spinning doesn’t it?
I have never claimed to be a Naderite. I have posted many times that I support Browne. I have also posted in the last day or so, that I am now considering changing my vote to Bush, specifically because of his news conference where he personally faced the reporters immediately after the DUI thing came out. I appreciate the way that was handled after seeing the way Clinton/Gore have handled similiar crap for the last 8 years.
That being said, I am probably going to pull the handle for Browne because he needs my vote more than Bush.
I would imagine that in most bets the person on either side thinks the other one is crazy. That is why there is a bet after all isn’t it? I’m about to send you off to the conspiracy thread if you keep up this nonsense.
The bet is that Bush will get 400 EC votes. If you lose, you can not bitch about the other candidate until tax day, April 15th.
IOW…If I lose, I can’t Bitch about Gore, and if you two lose, you can’t bitch about Bush.
If the bet’s that Bush will get 400 electoral votes, I’m in. (On the side that he won’t, of course)
You guys are going to get me in trouble. If to many people take this bet then there won’t be anyone for me to debate politics with around here until April.
Well, I won’t take the bet, but I believe there is a much better chance of Bush getting 400 EC votes than Gore getting the 319 that Chance the Gardner postulates. Ohio a swing/battleground state? Gore gave up on Ohio a long time ago. Bush will probably take it by at least 8-10%.
I can see Bush getting 340 or so.
Well, I’m voting for Bush but I don’t think he will get 400 votes. That seems a little high. By the way, I live in Michigan, which I think is going to go to Gore. I can’t seem to figure out why for the life of me. Gore is hugely against cars, which drives our economy. Interestingly enough, the UAW(United Auto Workers) reluctantly put their suport for Gore. I think they are so blindly partisan at this point that they would endorse Gore even if he murdered Tipper.
The way I see the odds:
Bush wins with about 300 votes: 55-60% chance.
Gore nips out Bush by a few: 30-40% chance
Gore wins in a landslide: 5% chance. This not really likely
Bush wins popular. Gore wins electoral: 20%
I know that doesn’t add up to 100%, but some of those odds overlap(like Gore nips Bush because Bush loses electoral).
I am sorry, I posted late at nite, and I meant Brown, not Nader- but again- where are your pro-Brown, anti-Bush postings? There are none- you have consistently defended & supported Bush, even to exactly quoting the party line. If you are really an Independest_ I got some hat eating to do.
I “edited” my post, here so it makes more sense. Sleep is a poor substiute for caffeine- but I had had neither.
You dont have to be anti something to be pro something. David i think your problem is your so blindly for your party line that you think everyone else has to be too.
Since you were gracious enough not push the sig line in our bet, I won’t hold you to eating your hat.
I have defended Bush. I don’t think I have done much on the pro-Bush category, I have just defended. I can’t think of any post where I held Bush up as the wonder candidate.
Do a search on my name and check out my recent posts. I think there are only 3 or 4 threads I have been posting on lately. I have been up front about my positions. I even went into it in a little more detail on another thread.
Basically, Browne is much closer to my ideal. I didn’t like Bush all that much in the beginning. Over the last several months he has grown on me. I find myself much more aligned with Republicans than I do with democrats.
I support gay rights. I do not support special legislation giving them those rights. I do not support special legislation preventing them those rights either. Basically, I wish we would just get out of people’s private lives. I abhor racism. I am against hate crimes legislation. I am stridently pro-2nd Amendment. I am vehmently against activist judges. I support states rights. I am against the drug war. I am against universal health care.
Where do you THINK I would feel more comfortable?
I have made no secret of my hate for Clinton/Gore. Bush may not be my ideal, but I think he is as close as I am going to get in this election. I would like to point out that Nader is also anti-Clinton/Gore, so this point of view is not exclusively Republican.
Besides, I thought this board was all about argueing. What am I supposed to do? Stay quiet and wait for a Browne thread to come up? I can face the facts, when your candidate is polling below 1%, you are just not going to get much coverage.
If you want to EXPOSE me as a Bush plant:), then I suggest you go find a thread where I allowed Browne to get smeared, smeared him myself, or other wise contradicted myself. Somehow I don’t feel that my failure to join in on this boards Bush bashing qualifies me as a a hardcore, right-wing Republican.
I am a fan of certain issues, not of a political party.
If it returns power to the individual, then I am probably for it. If it move decisions and responsibility to Washington, I am against it. I could care less what party is behind the position.
**Asmodean
**
Your post wasn’t up yet when I started my reply.
Thank you for saying in one sentence what I took an entire post to say:)
**Mahaloth
**
I fully understand that the following is from a bias source.
On Drudge, he is claiming that someone leaked the Bush campaign’s internal polling results to him. This is what he is claiming the Bush campaign sees as the staus of the race in certain key states.
IF this really is their internal polling, then they would not be doing anything to skew the results toward themselves. They would want as true a picture as possible of the race. It will be interesting on Wednesday to look at the final results of certain states and compare them to the different polls.
I figured that I would just push Wednesday’s headlines up top for the big day. Just remember, you heard it on the Straight Dope First.
**GW Bush Wins In A LANDSLIDE!!! **
Freedom2: For the record, I’m taking that bet. 400 votes? Not a chance. Nor a landslide. Hell, despite my predictions on my site, I’m still not 100% certain that Gore’s going to win this thing. I really ought to give the American people more credit than that, but that’s another issue. That an airhead like Bush is doing so well in the polls right now is depressing enough, and indicates that there’s something seriously screwed up with this country.
I think it’s worth fixing, though. Vote Gore!!!
I’m in on this bet. Freedom, you and Peggy Noonan are nuts. Bush will NOT win 400 electoral votes. (Peggy Noonan: Bush-411 Gore-127 Washington Post).
No way, no how, just absolutely ‘never say never?’ I’m sayin’ never! not POSSIBLE!
In fact I’ll say now that neither will break 310 votes.
[sub]I myself am betting Gore gets it with 274 votes vs. Bush’s 264. shh!![/sub]
I feel this must be repeated.
Bush will absolutely NOT win with 400 or more electoral votes. Come rain, sleet, snow, or mist of fog, Smirk is just not going to do it!
Actually, late breaking news- the latest poll fom MsNBC has Gore ahead - but only by a couple of points. This may well be the closest election in the last 100 years!
Anyway- Gore or Bush- VOTE!!!
With 0.000001% of all precincts reporting from somewhere in NH (Dixville Notch or somesuch), here’s our totals…
Bush 38 people
Gore 18
Nader 1
[sub]I still say that Bush can’t get 400 votes. In fact I’ll cap it it 315. If Bush excedes that, I’ll change my signature as ordered by Freedom. I stand by my prediction of 274-264 in favor of Gore[/sub]
George W. Bush has his first win – already.
Bush 66%. Gore 31% Nader 2%.
How many EC votes does this town get? 400?
Anybody think that it is strange that Gore campaigned through the night? I have to admit that he is giving it his all right down to the end. Nobody will be able to say that he lost it based on a lack of effort.
He even had a middle of the night (3am?) rally with nurses who were on the late shift.
weird…really weird.
Oh, no Daniel! Your enthusiasm has overcome reality. From MSNBC website:
If this is the poll you were citing, it only refers to Florida. And I still say Florida will go Bush.