The subject line is the title of an article (linked below)
Any opinions on this?
Personally, I think it might happen. Part of me wants to think it could never happen but…I am not so sure these days. The US is becoming distinctly less democratic. How long will the disenfranchised be ok with that?
I think more Jan 6th style incidents are likely, but an outright civil war? I am skeptical. Who wants to fight it? It seems like a handful of extremists on the right would like to (i.e. the Jan 6th types)… but how many of those are under 50 years old? Pretty damn few, if I understand the polling correctly. And without a great mass desiring and capable of fighting, it’s hard to imagine the type of incident that could lead to actual war.
It’s very common for wars to occur in situation where neither side really wants it or envisioned it happening.
It’s a series of small steps. In each case, the side taking the step feels compelled to take it in order to assert and protect their rights, but they don’t want war and hope the other side will see they mean business and back down at that point. Of course, the other side sees that step as a threat to themselves, and they take their own step to assert and protect their own rights, and they hope the other side will see that they mean business and back down at that point. And so on and so on, until you’re in a full scale war.
And public sentiment follows that same process. At the outset, members of the public don’t want war, but they support taking the step to assert their rights etc. As the other side fails to back down and persists in taking more and more aggressive (or protective, from the opposite perspective) steps of their own, public opinion against them hardens. By the time the actual war starts, people who at the outset were very opposed to war are now completely supportive.
Meh. As long as the majority of the populace has full stomachs I don’t see it happening. I remember this type of rhetoric when Clinton was POTUS.
Unless the US armed forces splintered into pro-US and anti-US, there’s no way to have a civil war that wasn’t immediately stopped by the armed forces. The US military is overwhelmingly more powerful than any state forces.
Uh, yeah but what about all the Americans who have been stockpiling firearms as per their 2nd Amendment Rights? Surely they will be able to overcome the tyranny of the US Military?! That is LITERALLY what it’s for!! /s
This is my fear. It’s not just the military, but the police, Secret Service, and I think likely the FBI, and any other law enforcement agencies may already be infested with the potential traitors who will make it happen. It only requires a minimal amount of doubt that these people will not follow orders and defend the constitution before these agencies are unable to act. Haven’t we already seen this strategy in effect currently in congress paralyzed by partisanship. In a military hierarchy officers will be reluctant to issue any orders if there’s a fear they may not be followed. In that circumstance the opportunities for active rebellion are rife and even in the minority it sows dissent more widely and forces everyone to choose sides.
Does anticipate still mean “look forward to”? That is bad. I thought they were only two fifths.
I’m honestly surprised we haven’t seen any assassination attempts yet on Biden or other prominent Dems. With the right-wing bullshit machine constantly portraying Dems as Satan-worshipping socialists bent on destroying America, and millions of armed MAGAts, how long until someone literally takes a shot at immortality?
(Perceived RINOs or even Trump could also be targets, given the loony tunes conspiracies out there. And yes, it’s also possible someone on the left could attempt to assassinate a GOP figure as well.)
Point being, a successful assassination (or even a failed attempt with numerous casualties) could tip things over the edge.
We’ve been in a civil war for the past 160 years.
IMHO, this falls into the “talk is cheap” category. I would guesstimate that no more than 2% or 3% of Americans are actually serious about civil war.
Both sides think they’re the ones defending the constitution, and that the other side are the traitors.
I’m not saying they’re both right.
The thing I find possible and scary is a more successful January 6 type event, where now two different commander-in-chiefs are issuing orders to the military, and the military is in the position of deciding who to follow. Of course the military is made up of people, and some of those people will choose different sides. Leaving us in the position of one faction of the military under some general following one commander-in-chief, and a different faction under some other general following the other commander-in-chief. That could very easily lead to a shooting war.
I don’t know about actual civil war; that is quite a tall order. What I’ve been wondering about, given the patterns that our politics have taken over the last couple of decades, is the possibility of U.S. society becoming akin to a place like Northern Ireland. The Troubles are over, but the society there is not healthy in many respects. If we start erecting “peace walls” over here, then you’ll know.
According to the Jan. 6th committee hearings, the proud boys had tacos right before assaulting the capitol. Their full stomachs didn’t in any way stop their assault on our country.
Yeah, and they’ve been working on it ever since.
You seem to have entirely missed the point of the article or the discussion. I’d agree that only 2-3% of Americans want a civil war, but that doesn’t mean that a much larger portion of the populace can see where things are going.
Anyway, I see the first steps at the state level. They’ve assaulted the US Capitol, but they’ve also assaulted state Capitols. If say Ohio elects Whaley to the governor’s mansion, and the state legislature turns a shade of blue, I fully expect “stop the steal” riots to turn into full on assaults with the intent to disrupt state government and kidnap or kill members of the Democratic caucus.
For the first time in my life, on January 6, 2001, I started to wonder if I might fall prey to politically motivated violence. Shortly before the election, I had a conversation with one my my neighbors where I politely made it clear that I was not a Trump supporter and would be voting against him in the election. I saw him again on election day, and he was unhappy with how things were going, but he was still polite. After January 6, it occurred to me that maybe he or other Trump supporters would be more than happy to take their frustrations out on someone like me. It’s not something that’s kept me up at night or anything, but I’ve wondered.
I’m not worried about a full blown civil war. But I expect to see an uptick in politically motivated violence. %#% me sideways, it just dawned on me that I’m talking about terrorism. I expect to see an uptick in terrorist activities stemming from violent right wingers.
As do I, and back when Clinton was the president we had the bombing of the federal building in Oklahoma. One key difference is that the rhetoric that was extreme in 1995 is fairly mainstream now. In 1995, as a nation, we were horrified by Timothy McVeigh’s actions. But in 2022, millions of Americans view the capitol rioters as heroes. You’re absolutely right that the rhetoric was there when Clinton was president, but conditions on the ground have changed in the two decades since he left office.
But that is my point. I’m not saying that only 2-3% of Americans want a civil war, I’m saying that only 2-3% of Americans truly expect one. The vast majority of Americans - even those who claim civil war is imminent - don’t behave or act like it at all. They are still living their lives like normal.
There is evidence that backs this up:
How do you expect them to act? Hide in their basements and cower in fear?
People will go about their lives as normally as they can until they can’t any more.
SFW? I’m talking about the people at large and you’re talking about a few measly whack jobs compared to the rest of the population.
No matter how much they blather no way will a significant portion of the population trade having their own homes, their family, a middle class income, a full belly every night with cupboards full of food, 1000 channels of TV, regular sex, drugs, vacations, etc, to go out and commit terroristic acts and acts of war.
Now, start taking that stuff away and I’ll buy the argument. A horrific depression where more than a third lose their homes. Food shortages where a significant amount of men, women, and children are literally starving. Americans, and I mean all if us including you and me, have grown fat, drunk, and stupid on the everyday luxuries we take for granted. We’re soft and a significant number of soft people are not going to start a civil war as long as they still have their soft lifestyle.
Now take all those things away from a significant number of soft people and, yeah, things may get ugly. But it would have to be a major, major downturn like we have never seen before that affected a large portion of everyone. Until then, it’s a small percentage that are of any concern to me and everyone else is just full of shit.