In a completely surprise move (even to HER!), Maria Shriver stepped out onto the stage at the UCLA rally to endorse Barack Obama! Link.
I was there, and let me tell you, it was UN-FREAKIN’-BELIEVABLE!
And I am now holding a piece of history in my hands; a Women for Obama rally sign, autographed by Michelle Obama, first African American First Lady of the United States of America!
Some of my rally photos here.
Some thoughts:
In CA, the maximum reasonable victory for either candidate is a net 28 delegates. If a candidate won every single district with an odd number of delegates, and none of those districts are super lopsided, and that candidate won the state by 10 points, the split would be 28 net. That’s a pretty extreme scenario. 5/6 of the latest polls have the race within the margin of error and no one thinks either of the candidates will win every district. So the split is likely to be less than 20.
And that’s in CA, the biggest prize of the day. The maximum take from NY is less, and all the way on down.
So I think it’s safe to say that delegates aren’t going to be the basis of who is declared the winner of Feb. 5.
The two other measures are popular vote and number of states won. Popular vote is going to be pretty close. 3/4 of the latest national polls have it within the margin of error.
My guess then is that much of the narrative–which is all that really matters since the race will continue–will be about which states are taken and how many. That’s a narrative that helps Obama, I would think, since he’s likely to pick up a lot of the red states. It will be especially helpful if he takes CA, which he may well do.
Oops, I was wrong about NY. They’ve set it up so that almost every district has an odd number of delegates. So victory in NY is actually worth more than victory in CA, in terms of district delegates. Nevertheless, we’re talking about around 30 delegates being up for grabs out of 232.
Latest from Zogby:
And the underdog Superbowl champion New York Giants have endorsed Barack Obama, and apparently, instead of going to Disneyland, will be attending the Obama rally at the Meadowlands today! I suspect that ought to pull NJ out of the tie and tip the scales to Obama.
And add Garrison Keillor, the voice of the prairie, and anti-anti-Iraq war and anti-abortion right winger, Frank Schaeffer to the list.
Well, I guess Zogby has even more current numbers, giving Obama an even bigger lead:
Don’t forget former Fed chairman Paul Volcker.
{{{{Shayna!!!}}}} You were there!!! That’s awesome!! Great Photos! I’ll be at the Hartford Civic Center tonight [hopefully] to see Obama at 5:30 EST. I am so excited! Campaigning for him this weekend showed great support throughout CT and New England. The endorsements, the press [GMA this morning was all over the Maria Schriver endoresement and other biggies] and the all around feeling waking up this morning, is that we are about to see a historic clash of the titans, and I beleive our man is going to pull waaay ahead on Tuesday - or at very least show the nation he is the candidate to nominate!
Um, yeah. Other endorsements received by Obama:
Jiminy Cricket
Roy Hobbs
The 1985 Chicago Bears
Ecco the Dolphin
Got som’thin against the 85’ Bears, Bub? 
The trouble I see for California is the huge number of postal ballots cast, many of which were before the late Obama surge. Even if he got 60% of those voting tomorrow, he could still lose.
I’ve heard this line of reasoning before, and it’s certainly reasonable. But you’ve got to imagine that pollsters take early voting into account; something along the lines of:
“Who do you plan to vote for on Tuesday, or if you’ve already voted, who did you vote for?”
Assuming the sample correctly pegs the number of early voters, and the subgroups are large enough to be meaningful, the polls should already reflect the biases of early voters.
But anyway, speaking of “late Obama surge,” CNN now has him up 3 points, which I think is the first time he’s ever been up in a national poll.
I know the voting has been open for a while, but the latest out of Massachussetts, Misouri, and California [3 key states IMHO] show Obama and Clinton in a veritable horserace - Do we know how many people have already cast votes in CA? I wouldn’t write him off in CA just yet…A friend in San Fran mentioned big rally’s for him…not that that is anything really, but I think we are about to see something quite historic taking place with BHO.
Even with the California early votes, Obama has shown that he can get the vote out and definately keep California close when it was originally predicted to be a rout for Clinton.
Speaking of Clinton, she “found her voice” again in Connecticut. That seems to happen a lot right before a primary.
We’re not here to start no trouble.
We’re just here to do the White House Shuffle.
I hope you’re right. Really I do. But I’m afraid we’re getting snookered into the expectations game. Now Obama has to win outright or he doesn’t meet expectations.
That may be true of those who are following every poll, but I don’t think it’s true of America at large. Hillary has been better about setting expectations for every race except Iowa, but not this time. The Obama camp is set to declare victory if they draw even–and realistically, that would indeed be quite a victory considering where the polls were a week or two weeks ago. As long as things don’t get out of control today, Obama is still the underdog.
Here’s a big you’ve-got-to-be-kidding-me coming from that…I was in Yale last weekend and the student union was full-on supporting Obama, Clinton knows that and that’s why she is at the hospital today tearing up with an old collegue. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. We’ll see what happens tomorrow when the votes are cast. Interesting that your linked article is right above one showing Obama is being endorsed by Femminist Leader Kate Michelman. We’ll see what happens.
I agree, but I do not believe Clinton has the momentum right now to carry her - to me it looks like her sails are luff.
Ok, ok, I got schnookered. I’m not a Kos reader, so I’m not accustomed to looking to their tags to figure out that they’ve actually posted “snark”. My bad.
But hey, we got Joan Baez! (3rd one down) That’s gotta count for something, right? 
Here are my thoughts on early voters in CA. Like MilTan, I believe they are taken into consideration in the polling. But even if they aren’t, those early voters more than likely were already firmly committed, or they would have waited until things got closer and more information came out, so we (which ever side ‘we’ falls on) weren’t going to sway the vast majority of those anyway. All we’ve got to do is beat her on Tuesday and we’ve got enough delegates to matter a whole lot towards the final tally. Obama has a way of energizing people into action, so I am highly confident the Tuesday votes will skew his way.
And {{{Phlosphr}}} right back at ya! I was SO stoked to be a part of that history-making event you cannot imagine. You will, though, after your rally tonight, but probably in an even bigger way. I mean, you actually get to see him! I am SO envious. But when he takes the Dem nom and has to start touring the country again, I’m certain he’ll be back this way, and come hell or high water, I’m going to see him. Have fun tonight and report back all about it!!
By the way, have you seen the Yes We Can video yet? They played it on the big screens right before all the ladies came out and the crowd went CRAZY! Most of the people standing around had never seen it before.
I’ll be unfortunately cut off during the returns, and will probably have only the wrap-up to look forward to. But this is exciting stuff, indeed.
I imagine CA and Connecticut will go to Obama but the delegate race will remain very tight indeed. I wonder how long this buddy-buddy phase can hold up as the race drags on.
I’ve said it before, it’s pretty neat to have what I see as two good choices. It would be bad if they skinned each other over a long nasty primary.
I think both candidates have realized that the best way to shoot themselves in the foot is to go negative.
They’ll be indirect attacks (Obama talking about the cynics and overturning the status quo; Hillary commenting on her experience) and debates about where they differ in policy, but I think the knives will be kept sheathed.