Two more:
For those not familiar, Norm Mineta served as the Commerce Secretary in Bill Clinton’s cabinet.
With it this close I’m predicting an Obama victory on all counts (state numbers, overall popular vote, and delegate count). His base is revved and will come out in numbers. Hers is not so excited. Turn out is key. The tear in the eye trick worked once; it won’t a second time.
Of course even Obama staying within 50 or so on the delegate count and picking up some states outright would place him well to take it the rest of the way.
We would all have to get temporary amnesia and Obama wold have to give a very stirring speech endorsing the Clintons.
My thinking up until a few days ago was that they were just about neck-and-neck, with Clinton having the inside track. But right now I think Obama will come away the winner tomorrow - I don’t know enough of the state-by-state numbers to make any specific guesses, but I’d say he will come out ahead by a little more than people expect, a definite win. He’ll open up a bigger lead in the following weeks and seal the nomination.
I don’t think even the Pbama camp expects to walk away with an objective win tomorrow. They are looking for a symbolic victory. They just hope to stay within a couple of hundred delegates and to win a few red states, actually they’re kinda depending on it.
I was at the Hartford Civic Center! It was amazing. I was blown away by the diversity of the crowd that attended. Black, white, young, old, urban, suburban, rural… everyone. It was one of the best cross-sections of Connecticut that I’ve ever seen.
And the ENERGY! It was electric. People were so happy to be there, and the Civic Center was packed. Hillary and Obama both did events in CT today. Hillary did a small “round table” at Yale, Obama packed an arena. That says something.
I disagree. He can only keep “gaining momentum” for so long. Maybe they will spin a close loss in a positive way, but he needs to win stuff. A symbolic victory won’t count for much if Clinton has the most delegates and the perception that she won.
Absolutely with out a doubt say’s something. Hillary had a small round table at a school that is overwhelmingly for Obama - odd I know but Yale student Union endorses Obama - Obama packed the Hartford Civic Center to capacity. Hell the Whalers didn’t even do that when they were playing in Hartford!
If Connecticut is the “weather-bell” everyone says it is, last night is a testament to what is to come all over the country. People want new change and Obama represents that to a vast majority of people. The young people of the country are finally standing up for what they believe and are backing a man like no other in my recent memory. I’m in my mid-30’s and I have not felt as strongly about a race before as I do for this one.
I want the phrase, ‘Proud to be an American’ to mean something again, GWB has tainted the pool in my opinion and I think we need to augment our image to the rest of the world that we are a powerful nation of change. Barrack Obama represents this change to me and to tens of thousands of other people across the nation.
I think you’re countering one ‘perception/momentum’ argument with another - the notion that a fairly modest victory by Clinton tonight will change the dynamic of the race by making her the favorite in the primaries further down the road.
It’s really about delegates now. Both candidates are going to win stuff today, but it’s generally conceded that today’s primaries and caucuses are being fought on ground that, overall, favors Clinton, while the primaries and caucuses between tomorrow and March 11 favor Obama.
Therefore, an argument that Obama needs to win tonight, rather than merely keep it close, is a momentum/perception argument, because the underlying assumption is that if he doesn’t win tonight, his advantages down the road will be negated.
I didn’t think it would change the dynamic, I think a fairly modest victory would keep things right where they are. The idea that the later primaries favor Obama is interesting, I just hadn’t heard it before. Why is that? Because of the states that vote over the next few weeks?
The particular states and because he’ll be able to focus on them individually, so he neutralizes name recognition and emphasizes his strength: grassroots organization and direct contact.
Interesting. We’ll see how it breaks down.
Meanwhile, I was surprised to see this item on CNN’s ticker: apparently the Clinton camp wants more debates against Obama. Isn’t conventional wisdom that the underdog usually wants more debates? Obviously they feel those suit her strengths, but still.
I should add that this thing is worded vaguely. It says they are “calling for one debate a week” and then says they have already accepted the invitations. Maybe I am missing something. and they are talking about town hall meetings.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/05/clinton-camp-calls-for-one-debate-a-week/
Obama! Because this time, the youth vote will make the difference! I know, they punked out on us last time…and the time before that…but *this * time!..
Hillary comes across reasonably well in those debates. Obama does OK too, but he’s way better at speeches than at debates. If I were Obama’s campaign manager, I’d want him spending more time speaking to crowds, and less time in debates, or preparing for them - especially in the next five weeks, when he’ll be able to spend significant time in each of the post-2/5, pre-gap* primary/caucus states. (BTW, what Richard Parker said, in response to your earlier question.)
*As incredible as it may seem, there are no primaries or caucuses scheduled between the Mississippi primary on March 11 and the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. Political junkies like me may have to check into the Betty Ford clinic for a few weeks.
That’s a tad long.
How about “YOUTH. Now More Than Ever!” ?
Actually, the youth vote was better than expected in 2004 and 2006. And way better than expected during the Dem primaries this year.
And even better, from our POV:
2008:
Continuing on:
That was the Dem primary. On the GOP side, OTOH:
Too bad, so sad. 
NPR: Polls just closed in Georgia, exit polls show Obama winning.
By George! (certainly not the current one) hope lies ahead and the US just might make an 180% turn and join the rest of the civilized World.
GoBama!
Certainly the most hopeful candidate – in all ways – in decades in US Politics.
Wishing you all the best to do the Right Thing.
Not only are they projecting a win in Georgia, they’re projecting a wholloping!
CNN.com has the gap closed 64% to 30%. A big win but tighter than they were and apparently shrinking as it was 66% to 28%.