Handicap this year's Oscars!

Cafe Society
1

We are less than two weeks away from the deadline for the Oscar Race.

Despite the Indies winning the screeners/piracy debate, it looks like the big movies will dominate. I haven’t heard a lot of buzz about any art house type films like Pianist or Gosford Park in past years. Lost In Translation is about all I have seen mentioned. (Please add any if I am missing anything?)

I think RotK is the clear favorite. It won the snooty New York Film Critics Award. I think the movie takes picture and director. (Though I could see PJ getting the snub for some reason).

I think despite being released earlier, Seabiscut will get a nod.

I am not sure about Master and Commander or Last Samuri. Both are beautiful movies that work on some level, but I am not sure either get the nod. RotK satisfies the EPIC nomination.

(I do think Ken Watanabe from LS gets a nod).

So use this thread to make predictions or discuss the probabilities of the upcoming Oscar campaign.

Nomination Predictions (to be modified!)

Best Picture

RotK
Lost In Translation
Seabiscut
?
?

Best Actor

Bill Murray- Lost In Translation

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Best Picture Predictions-

From where I stand, there are three films that are (more or less) expected to receive Best Picture nominations:

Return of the King
Master and Commander
Cold Mountain

The question becomes, what will the other two nominees be?

Here, several films compete for the last two spots:

Mystic River
Last Samurai
Seabiscut
Lost In Translation

Until I see what is nominated, I shall not predict a winner, nor shall I make predictions in any other catagory.

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I’d love to see ROTK win, but I just don’t thgink it’s the KIND of film voters will go for. Oscar voters don’t cotton to fantasy. They like to reward sweeping historical epics. And they REALLY like to vote for whatever Harvey Weinstein tells them to.

So… even though I haven’t seen it yet, and have no idea whether it’s any good, I’d lay odds that “Cold Mountain” sweepps most major awards, while ROTK gets only tecfhnical achievement awards.

I’d LOVE to be wrong, mind you, but “Cold Mountain” just fits the profile of an Oscar winner much more than any of the LOTR films.

4

Hmmm, there were a number of movies that should compete for the five spots of Best picture. I just know I’ll forget one, but here are the ones that i’d nominate (all of which I’ve seen):

American Splendor
Return of the King
Mystic River
Lost in Translation
either Seabiscuit or Big Fish or Master and Commander

The oscar will most likely go to Return of the King.

The reviews for Cold Mountain are somewhat lukwarm (ebert and roeper for one) but I’ll have to wait until I see it sometime this week. Also, The Last Samurai may find it’s way in as well. I have a feeling that movies such as Lost in Translation and Big Fish may be subsituted for even more dramatic movies, we’ll see though.

To make life easier on myself, I’ll just go through my pick for the winner of the actress/actor categories. Best actor should be Sean Penn, but I think it’ll go to Jude Law. Best actress is a tough category for me normally but this year it seems like a no-brainer, give it to Charlize Theron for Monster. Of course I haven’t seen it yet, but from the reviews I’ve seen or read, she’s absolutely unbelievable.

Supporting actor: Albert Finney (big fish) or Tim Robbins (Mystic River)
Supporting actress: Hope Davis (American Splendor)
Director: Peter Jackson

5

Okay.

You want I should break Oscar’s legs? That’ll put 'im in a wheelchair for sure.

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I believe that the Oscar may go to Mystic River. It’s the type of deeper movie that Oscar voters love.

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Oh, and I also think that Jackson really didn’t do a good directorial job on ROTK. The pacing was really uneven in this one… in great contrast to FOTR (IMO).

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okay… this is my theories…

Best Pic Nominees

Cold Mountain
Lord Of The Rings: Return Of The King
Lost In Translation
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Mystic River

I don’t think “Seabiscut” will get the cut due to it being released in the Summer (release time is VERY important in Hollywood). ROTK should win, but it will not… the Academy are snobs.

My guess either Master & Commander if they want the epic feel, or Cold Mountain.

Actor:

Russell Crowe (M&C TFSOTW)
Jude Law (Cold Mountain)
Bill Murray (Lost In Translation)
Jack Nicholson (Something’s Gotta Give)
Sean Penn (Mystic River)

This award should be Sean Penns. He derserves the damn thing! But I can accept Bill Murray getting it, since he pulled off a killer performance. Though Nicholson might all this one off again like he did with “As Good As It Gets”. Still, all in all it is a strong category this year

Actress

Scarlett Johansson (Girl With A Pearl Earring)
Diane Keaton (Something’s Gotta Give)
Nichole Kidman (Cold Mountain)
Charlize Theron (Monster)
last place… I dunno

I guess Nicole should be favorite again, but I can see Diane Keaton getting it (for some reason as I mentioned Nicholson above for). I would LOVE to see Jamie Lee Curtis getting a nomination for “Freaky Friday”.

Supporting Actor

William H. Macy (Seabiscuit)
Tim Robbins (Mystic River
Ken Watanabe (The Last Samurai)
2 more I cannot think of.

This should go to Ken Watanabe all the way! He was the best thing about a rather lackluster movie.

Supporting Actress

Patricia Clarkson (Pieces Of April)
Hope Davis (American Splender)
Holly Hunter (Thirteen)
Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain)
plus one more.

This award should go to Hope Davis. But I can see Renee, the constant Academy Bridesmaid finally winning an award. And frankly I think she deserved it over Nicole Kidman this year. So if Renee wins, I can see it is due to the Judi Dench factor (she deserved it for Mrs Brown, the Academy saw the gravious mistake they made after the fact so they gave it to her for her less deserving role in “Shakespheare In Love”)

9

Finding Nemo have a chance at a Nod?

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The “NominOptions” at the Hollywood Stock Exchange give an interesting view of the probabilities. (HSX is a sort of virtual futures market.)

This page opens to the “best picture” options. There are links to other categories. (The ones with the highest prices are the ones that the market “thinks” are most likely to be nominated.)

http://movies.hsx.com/special/nominoptions2004/

11

Jennifer Connelly should get nominated for The House of Sand and Fog, I’m thinking Best Supporting Actress.

I think Russell Crowe could be in a race with Tom Cruise for Best Actor.

12

Finding Nemo a shoo-in for best Animated feature.

I’d prefer to make predictions when I know the contenders but right now I’d say best actor will probably be among Nicholson, Murray or Penn. I am one who believes the ads and studio push and hype does play into who wins and we will need to see who has the biggest push behind them as this gets white hot.

That goes for the rest of the categories & I think most of the pics and actresses named so far are in the race. At this second and it is a WAG, I can see DKeaton, AFinney, CRampeling and Mystic River getting it – but it is all long way off & prefer to try in two weeks seeing who has nominations.

13

Ben Kingsley is getting some Best Actor heat for “House of Sand and Fog”.

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I am fairly confident that ROTK will win the BP oscar. It has received great reviews and made a lot of money: a combination that the Academy likes. It appears to have really good inside buzz… Its two predecessors were nominated and lost; I don’t think that will happen three times in a row. I don’t think the genre bias will hurt it much. Musicals haven’t won for decades but Chicago won last year beating several serious dramas. Comedies usually don’t win but Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan. If the film is strong on other criteria, genre bias can be overcome.

I am also pretty sure that Finding Nemo will win the animated film award.

Not too sure about the rest. A good site to keep up with Oscar buzz:
www.oscarwatch.com

15

ROTK was the worst of the 3 FOTR movies by far. the pacing was horrendous, it was at least 25 minutes too long, and the acting was passable, but just barely.

Frodo had exactly 3 expressions cross his face the entire movie: scared/terrified, dumbstruck awe, and a sickly smile.

And he had the widest range of anyone.

And the fake ending thing got really old, really fast.

But in spite of all of those horrific flaws, it’s a shoe-in to get a best Picture nod, but it won’t win.

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Your opinion that it’s the worst is a minority opinion (check www.rottentomatoes.com). It will win, and I think it deserves to win. I disagree with your thoughts concerning the pacing, length, acting and ending (it ended when the words “The End” came up on the screen), but that has no bearing on the Academy Awards.

Sean Penn is my prediction for Best Actor winner. It’s about time they give him one, and he gave two brilliant performances this year.

Peter Jackson will win Best Director.

Lost In Translation will probably win Best Original Screenplay.

I’d personally like to see Jackson/Walsh/Boyens get Best Adapted Screenplay, but I believe the Tolkien purists have made that impossible. I would guess Minghella might win for Cold Mountain.
I’d like to see In America and Big Fish get BP nominations, but I’m not holding my breath.

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Best Actor:

Jack Nicholson (Something’s Gotta Give)
Sean Penn (Mystic River)

I’d give the nod to Penn as long as his politics with the Academy holds out. Not sure where he stands in their eyes. And yes, it’s a very political process.

Best Actress:

Gwyneth Paltrow (Sylvia)

This is the only knock-your-socks-off performance I have seen by an actress this year. Diane Keaton (Something’s Gotta Give) may take it for political correctness though.

Best Picture:

Mystic River

It’s got everything the Academy likes. Did I mention Clint Eastwood directed? Haven’t seen Cold Mountain yet. Master & Commander was one of my favorites this year.