Romney- Able to raise gobs of money, loved by the people who really run things in the GOP (the wealthy), and has the advantage that he came in second (kind of) last time. Disadvantages- A Mormon in a party dominated by Evangelicals who consider Mormons to be heretics, a guy who made his fortune essentially putting people out of jobs as a corporate raider, while hiring illegals to do the gardening at his 4 mansions.
Palin- Loved by the grass roots, gets instant attention just by tweeting. Disadvantages- Dumber than a bag of hammers, disliked by non-Crazy Americans. Also, not a real campaigner, she just doesn’t have the stanima.
Newt Gingrich- “He’s Dead, Jim!”
Michelle Bachmann- Is the real deal for Tea Party types, and unlike Palin, can talk about issues with substance. Walks the walk on family values, has adopted a lot of kids. Disadvantages- Crazier than Bat-poop. Still, she could be the Tea Party Standard bearer, and will have to be handled.
Rick Perry- Governor of a major state, has cred with both the establishments and the grass roots. Disadvantages- Has said some odd things, and I’m getting the impression, not very charismatic.
Tim Pawlenty- Moderate governor of a Blue state, could be competitive in midwest, has street cred amongst evangelicals. Disadvantage- Antidote for Insomnia.
Jon Huntsman - Another Mormon? Really? Other than just running to spite Romney, I don’t see the point.
Herman Cain- Alan Keyes with a Pizza Box.
Santorum- Really?
Ron Paul - If Democrats were really feeling mischevious, they should all vote for Ron Paul in the primaries… Why not, there isn’t a contest on the Democratic side.
My point in calling Sam out here is that it’s more like 12-1 or even 20-1 that Ryan will enter. You need to raise a shipload of money, make a zillion appearances in Iowa, etc. and you need to have done this by yesterday. But this way **Sam ** can claim, if Ryan gets in, “See? I told you it was going to happen” and if he doesn’t “See? I told you it was unlikely.” If he really thinks it’s only 3-1 against, well, money talks and bullshit walks.
A good summary, RR. The big issue is that none of these guys are moderates and their party will not let them be. They will not attract the independents, and if they even try, they will lose their wingnuts. In addition, Obama has no scandals to latch onto. I believe the election will hinge on how people feel about the economy when they cast thier vote.
Insofar as there is a true Romney (an issue very much in question given the number of times he has changed positions, sometimes, I gather, within the course of a single paragraph), it seems to be the governor of Massachusetts, right? I mean, if he’d really been a rabid right-winger, surely he would have chosen any of the other forty-nine states in which to live and run; he’s a very wealthy man and could establish residency anywhere he pleased. So let’s assume for the moment that he is by preference a non-batshit crazy Republican. He is also the leading Republican candidate in most polls.
A couple of weeks ago, we had the congressional by-election in NY26. one of the reddest districts in the country. Everyone pretty much agreed that the reason the Democrat won there was because the Republican candidate supported the Ryan kill-Medicare program. Let me restate that: the Republican lost among Republicans because she embraced kill-Medicare.
I understand why the Rush Limbaughs of the world are embracing the loony right wingnut policies, because it makes them money. But given that the most extreme of these views seems proven to alienate even Republican voters, why is it that all the candidates except Romney are racing each other to provide ever-increasingly extreme rightwing policy statements, while Romney himself dances around each issue as if expressing a moment of sanity might burn him?
I understand why if Rush Limbaugh is “the party.” But looking at NY26, it would seem that Rush Limbaugh is not “the party.” Shocking as the concept may be, it seems that the voters are actually “the party.” And the voters aren’t as batshit crazy as Rush Limbaugh. So why are Republican leaders acting as if they are?
They’re in deep shit if the Ryan plan is the GOP litmus test, and judging by Gingrich’s campaign implosion, that’s what it is right now. Far-right Republicans love it, and just about everyone else hates it.
NY 26 wasn’t a Primary, though. It was a general election, where everybody could vote for anybody, not just for someone within their party.
It seems most of the candidates a tacking hard to starboard into The Batshit Triangle, becuase that’s where they believe the Primary voters are. Whether or not they really are there is what we’ll find out next January. In the meantime, the more looney you are, the more free TV time you get.
I have always felt that Romney is a political chameleon, who is very good at trying to adapt to his environment. I’m not sure if the man has any core beliefs, other than serving the interests of big business.
The reason I call myself a “recovering” republican is that I realized a few years back that the GOP is really only interested serving the interests of big business. (Not that the Democrats are much better in that regard), and they use the social issues to whip people up.
in 2008, Romney calculated that McCain and Guiliani had the moderate side of the street sewn up, so he needed to play to the right wing, which didn’t have an obvious champion initially. Fred Thompson got in late, and Huckabee was initially obscure. Also, early in the 2008 cycle, it wasn’t really obvious how bad this next recession was going to be, so his business credentials weren’t quite as important. (And frankly, this is a guy who got rich busting up unions and putting people out of work, not the best advertisement for nervous workers.)
Where Romney miscalculated is that he thought he could get Evangelicals, especially the Baptists, to live and let live on his Mormonism. Instead you had weird moments like Huckabee asking if Mormons believe if Jesus and Satan were brothers. Seriously. In 2008. He lost Iowa, McCain got an opening in NH, and the only reason he survived Michigan was because he promised to do anything to save the Auto Industry. (Later on, when President Obama actually DID save the auto industry, he was against it.)
This time, he’s planning to run more to the center, letting Bachmann, Cain, Palin and other fight for the far right, and emphasizing his business credentials. Will it work? Who knows.
Well, it’s a bit more complicated than that. there was a third party candidate who ran under the “Tea Party” banner who got 9% of the vote. Had that gone to the Republican, he would have won. This joker ran as both a Republican and Democrat at various times. But the Ryan Plan did scare a lot of people.
The problem here - in both parties- is that you run to the extremes to get the nomination because those are the people who show up to primaries - the activists and the idealogues. Keep in mind that both Lieberman and Murkowski were outflanked in the primaries, but came back to win in the general in a three way race.
Limbaugh is not the party, obviously. He usually makes a point to stay neutral in primary races, so he doesn’t have egg on his face when his choice loses. Case in point, he didn’t endorse anyone in 2008 until Huckabee (a guy who said all the right things on social issues but terrified the economic conservatives with his populist talk) made some progress. Then he went double down backing Mitt Romney, and Romney still lost. He had no choice but to get behind McCain, whom he really dislikes going back to 2000.
Whatever his real qualifications, I doubt that Romney can survive the fruitcake vote in the primary. Also, his background in business is not seen as a positive in this economy.
As I have posted here before - I believe Sarah Palin is the best opportunity for the Republican party to participate in the election. Palin has the celebrity to draw crowds and the skill to present a scripted message. She even has a remote chance of winning.
The Palin campaign strategy team is doing an excellent job. They clearly put the McCain campaign to shame.
So, especially in view of recent events (the emails turned out to be a positive), I believe the Republican candidate for President will be Sarah Palin.
Then Obama will walk it. The best candidate for the Republicans that I’ve seen so far is Fred Karger, and he’s handicapping himself by making his candidacy about gay rights. He should try talking less about gay issues and more about recapturing the spirit of Reagan.
But then, other than the gay issue, Karger’s obscure and a blandie.
Sorry, just don’t see it. Even a majority of Republicans think she’s unqualified for the office.
If I still voted Republican, (which I never will again after the 2008 debacle), I would probably put my chips behind Rick Perry. Pawlenty would be a second choice.