LOL
President - Perry
Defense - Cain
State - Bachmann
Treasury - Paul
Education - Beck
Surely the Republican party has some real candidates to offer!
Crane
I confess I have no idea what’s going to happen in Iowa. IMHO, there are three main possibilities:
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Over the Christmas holidays, the effect of the attacks on Gingrich fades, and he either limps to victory in Iowa, or bounces back and wins pretty strongly.
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Gingrich fades, and Ron Paul picks up enough support to win, partly from his genuine fans, and partly as a ‘none of the above’ option.
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Gingrich fades, but his former supporters and the undecideds split enough ways that Romney threads the needle to pick up the win.
What I am reasonably sure of is that it’s going to be one of those three. Bachmann’s and Perry’s support may inch up a bit, but even among Iowa primary voters, they’ve been looked over and mostly found wanting.
After Iowa, it gets clearer. If Gingrich wins, he’s the anti-Romney, and it’s a two-man race. If not, there really isn’t an anti-Romney, and Romney wins more or less by default. After Iowa, nobody’s going to have much money besides Romney and Paul, except Gingrich if he can win Iowa and turn that into contributions from the base.
Romney wins NH. Whatever one thinks of the Huntsman boomlet, he’s basically an anti-anti-Romney, and there won’t be a swing to Huntsman unless enough people think Romney’s cooked.
And then there’s SC. It looks like home field for the more wingnutty candidate in the race, but SC’s history has been one of being where the establishment-backed candidate nails it down, regardless of which side the challenge comes from, whether it’s Bush over McCain in 2000 or McCain over Huckabee in 2008. With Nikki Haley endorsing Romney, I think odds are good for a replay.
After the latest PPP poll (Newt drops to 14% in Iowa), he’s looking like toast. Wow.
I don’t see how Romney loses at this point.
Wierd!
The minute by minute polling has Gingrich fading and Ron Paul taking the lead in Iowa.
Definitely more reality TV than a serious election.
Crane
Gingrich and Romney tied in the CNN national poll, which doesn’t mean a whole lot other than glimpse at where the tides might be.
This is a fascinating cycle. It would be frustrating to be a Republican in it, but from the outside, it’s just plain neat to watch.
I guess, though it kind feels boring in that its a long drawn out song-and-dance for the GOP to choose the candidate everyone knew years ago they were going to end up with. Good for comic relief maybe, but not exactly suspenseful.
Of course maybe I’m wrong and this time it’ll be different and we’ll have Paul or Newt win the nomination, but I doubt it.
Newt’s a possibility, but I don’t think the establishment will allow it.
Caran
Ging-grinch, Perry, and Bachman all miss qualification for Virgina Republican Primary. No write-ins accepted either.
And now Santorum - they have got to be kidding!
His wife had a second term abortion which was OK with them, but Santorum wants a Constitutional ammendment to ban ALL abortions. Then there’s the part about no contraception. That’s all we need - more government in the bedroom.
The Clown car isn’t empty yet - I wonder what’s next!
Crane
Santorum booed in contentious exchange over gay marriage
Looks like he needs to hire better audience screeners.
Since this is the handicapping thread:
Romney - Win by a length
Gingrich - Show after New Hampshire
Paul - Place in the South
Santorum - Back in the pack
Perry - Roadkill
Johnson - Who? Switched parties and will run as a Libertarian. Waaayyyy back in the pack.
Santorum is an anomaly. He scares voters. He presents himself as a viable politician. Then he says things that make Bachmann look sane. Scarey!
Crane
Which one?
Republican
Crane
Huntsman’s gone. No surprise. I think we’ll see his name again in 2016 if Obama wins this.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/huntsman-says-hes-quitting-g-o-p-race/
Half of his supporters will move over to Romney.
The other half, a Mrs. Eugenia Smith-Fensteermacher of South Freedom, New Hampshire, has yet to make up her mind.
I think he can get the nomination then. This year steeled Huntsman.
Don’t rush her! She’s had a hard time during this campaign… 
Intrade puts Romney’s chances of winning the nomination at 90%. I agree. Last week I would have said 80% though.
They think Obama’s odds of winning the election is 52%. I’d give Romney a 55% chance of a November victory if things are tied up before the end of February and 2012 GDP growth is 2%, so I’d say Intrade is a sliver generous to Obama.
Sure, if Obama wins in November, Huntsman will run in 2016.
But what he was running for, this time, was to be the guy whose ‘turn’ it was in 2016.
I doubt he did well enough to nail down a win in that particular race. Third in NH, and way back in the white noise in Iowa and nationally, really doesn’t set you up as the guy for next time.
Remember that in some years, nobody gets set up as the leading candidate for the next cycle. In the 2000 cycle, GWB was clearly the chosen guy, almost two years out, and he wasn’t a candidate in 1996. Meaning none of the 1996 also-rans did well enough to be the presumed 2000 choice. No reason why any of the 2012 also-rans have to get any traction in 2016, either with the voters or the party establishment or the big donors.
Perry’s dropping out, effective today. Recent polls in SC have shown his support there in the 3-4% range, which pretty much explains why.
Just in time for Newt, whose poll numbers have been rocketing upwards since Monday night’s debate, to pick up what little support Perry had. It may not be much, but given how the race in SC has tightened, that might be enough to put Newt over the top on Saturday. Should be interesting.