Conventional thought right now is that Perry’s endorsement of Gingrich might consolidate the conservative vote.
In other news, it looks like Santorum[sup]*[/sup] might have actually won Iowa.
Oh, its OK, they’re all back up now.
Looking at RealClearPolitics’ poll summary for the SC primary is quite interesting. The three polls taken just yesterday, averaged, show Gingrich at 33% and Romney at 29.3%.
Rasmussen, 1/18, has Newt 33, Mitt 31.
Insider Advantage, 1/18, has Newt 32, Mitt 29.
PPP, 1/18, has Newt 34, Mitt 28.
Before that, we have:
Politico, 1/17-18, Newt 30, Mitt 37. (I’d love to see the breakdowns for each day.)
NBC/Marist, 1/16-17, Newt 24, Mitt 34. (1/16: Mitt by 15; 1/17: Mitt by 5.)
If you did a straight average of all SC GOP polls taken since Monday’s debate, you’d get Romney ahead by 0.2%. But even between two days ago and yesterday, the momentum has been continuing towards Newt.
If the primary were being held today, I’d bet on Newt. But with one more debate tonight, followed by the televising of part of the Marianne Gingrich interview, who knows what things will look like in 24 hours?
Clearly this is the crucial part. If the good folks of South Carolina believe the things Marianne Gingrich has said The Newt could lose steam fast. If he ends up winning it won’t do anything more than delay Mitt locking it up down the road. Of course, the comedy will continue to be entertaining either way.
As a Democratic partisan, I strongly prefer a long, bitter, divisive fight on the GOP side, resulting in a wounded nominee, not to mention losers who’ve already written all the attack ads against that nominee that the Obama campaign will ever need.
Yeah, Mitt will win in the end, but if the end is two months from now, rather than two days, then so much the better.
I couldn’t have said it better.
And with Newt’s dressing down of John King and the “media elite” in the debate earlier tonight, he may well still win the SC primary. He certainly had the audience eating out of his hand.
Sounds like Newt was the big winner in the debate last night, continuing his roll. I think he’s gonna win SC tomorrow. Pass the popcorn!
Was it Winston Churchill? Who said democracy is the one truly amusing form of government humanity has ever devised.
Well, let it be so. No one laughs at the government or politicians in non-democratic countries. Partly because they don’t dare, and partly because it ain’t funny.
LOL - Newt balanced the budget at the peak of the greatest economic boom in history. Romney’s a corporate raider. And, these two are on top!
Go figure.
Crane
I don’t know, Kim Jong Mentally-Ill could be pretty funny.
It looks like there is not much handicapping to be done in Florida. Newt is running away with it, even before the exchange of negative ads begins.
But, what about the outlook nationwide. Can Newt hold the lead? How a dark horse: Jeb Bush?
Crane
There is no GOP Cavalry Coming. According to the article, it’s pretty much impossible at this point… or “political science fiction” as they call the prospects of someone new jumping in at this late date.
And of course, Newt couldn’t have balanced it even then, without the tax hike that Clinton passed in 1993 that Newt vehemently opposed. So it’s absurd to give Newt the credit for balancing the budget.
Which won’t stop him from taking it, as I heard him do in the Tampa debate last night.
As of today, Newt’s ahead, 31-27, in Gallup’s national poll, which is a 5-day rolling average. In this case, the polling days are 1/19 to 1/23.
Romney was up by 1 just yesterday, so there was a 5-point swing. But to swing a 5-day poll by 5 points, the most recent day has to be ~25 points different from the day that dropped off - that is, Newt polled ~25 points better relative to Romney yesterday in Gallup’s nationwide poll than he did on Wednesday of last week - which was the second day after the debate that got the current Gingrich boom rolling.
I’d really love to see their one-day results. Because I have a feeling Newt’s absolutely crushing Mitt over the past 2 days.
Newt’s up, 32-24, inGallup’s national poll. But he’s falling through the floor in Florida.
So, what’s different about Florida? Republicans elsewhere in the country are watching (and having their opinions shaped by) the debates in other states. But people in Florida are getting vastly different ads right now than those elsewhere.
As Cyndi Lauper sang, “Money Changes Everything.”
I don’t see how Newt can win Florida at this point. And if he can’t win Florida, I don’t see how he wins the nomination. So it’ll be Mitt after all.
But if Newt’s goal is to be a pain in Romney’s backside, he can stay in the race through June, and force Romney to spend a lot of money in each state to knock Newt down with millions of dollars in negative ads.
Apparently there is a movement to get Mitch Daniels back in the game. 
Seems to me, he’s keeping his powder dry for 2016.
The link at post 892 explains why it’s too late for anyone to jump in at this point.
There’s no real movement to try to convince Daniels to jump in, just wishful thinking on the part of some pundits.
Besides, where would he fit in? He’s an establishment Republican (which tells you a lot about how far right the GOP establishment is nowadays, but I digress), which means that he can forget about auditioning for the next anti-Romney if/when Newt fizzles. His only opening, even if he had time to get on the ballot in enough states to keep anyone else from winning, would be as a replacement anti-anti-Romney if Gingrich was wiping the floor with Romney.
That’s not happening, and it’s not going to happen. So the Daniels fans must be prepared to wait for the next race.
It looks like the uncertainty is not yet resolved. Santorum who was a non-entity a short while ago is now poised to take Michigan. And, Gingrich may have abrief surge in the South.
I suspect a weakened Romney will still prevail. He’ll beat the not-Romneys to run as the not-Obama.
Crane
538 is currently giving the following odds:
[ul]
[li]Arizona[/li]Romney: 71%
Santorum: 29%
Gingrich: 0%
[li]Michigan[/li]Romney: 43%
Santorum: 57%
Gingrich: 0%
[li]Georgia[/li]Romney: 15%
Santorum: 15%
Gingrich: 70%
[li]Ohio[/li]Romney: 8%
Santorum: 92%
Gingrich: 1%
[li]Oklahoma[/li]Romney: 27%
Santorum: 50%
Gingrich: 22%[/ul]