Harris VP choice as she is the official presidential nominee of the Democratic Party for 2024

I like Mark Kelly and I think he’d be a great choice. Is it a big drawback to have both candidates be from the western side of the US?

Bush/Cheney was two Texans (one of whom moved to Wyoming).

Reagan/Bush was California/Texas.

Both successful in gaining two terms. I don’t think it matters.

Nor should they. Jewish, part of the Chicago Democratic establishment, net worth of 3.5 billion, and…let’s just say he and Chris Christie go to the same tailor. Really not the best choice for optics, whatever his qualifications may be.

I like Mark Kelly and Andy Bashear, with a slight edge to Bashear IMO because I think he’s more personable, even if he’s not an astronaut.

Josh Shapiro brings so many other advantages that I think it’ll be him anyway.

Well that and the fact that the Constitution says if they’re running mates, CA electors cannot vote for both.

Trouble is she would have a steep mountain to climb learning the presidency and campaigning at the same time.

I seem to remember that in the 1976 campaign, Ronald Reagan (just a hopeful at the time) picked Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania (a Republican liberal - there were such creatures at that time) to be his VP pick should he win the nomination. It was unheard-of at the time and got a lot of publicity. Since Reagan was a Conservative, he chose the more moderate Schweiker in order to balance the ticket. Of course, Reagan didn’t get the nomination that year so it was all for show. Schweiker later served in the Reagan cabinet.

Which, if Newsom was actually selected, would be fixed by one of the two of them officially moving to another state – which is exactly what happened in 2000, when Dick Cheney moved from Texas to Wyoming. In this case, as Newsom is currently governor of California, I’d expect that Harris would be the one to establish domicile elsewhere.

What’s the research on how much a VP home state residency buys anyway? I have some vague memory of Silver analyzing that once upon a time and concluding it was actually pretty negligible.

I’m getting sold on Beshear or Kelly.

Win the Blue Wall with the quality of the people running and their vision of the future, both in distinct contrast to Trump Vance.

Beshear stood up for reproductive rights in Kentucky and won an election doing it. He helps focus attention on a winning issue. It is going full offense. Kelly brings border state understanding of immigration issues, a defensive play against her major vulnerability.

Both will know how to campaign in Blue Wall states to win over non-college educated white voters who are not sold on more of Trump. Neither is extreme.

And maybe open up a few extra electoral paths.

Assume Shapiro helps gain PA but helps lose MI in the process. Hurts with some Gaza centric younger voters across the country. A good trade off?

Not immediately finding the old Silver piece but this.

Maybe more a myth than anything else barring a small state?

Of course when even a few votes may be critical even tiny effects can’t be ignored.

Years ago, one used to hear the term “favorite son” used for a politician who was from a particular state, particularly in the context of presidential / vice-presidential appeal and voting. I don’t think I’ve heard the term used much (at least, not in a political sense) in years, which may be at least partially the result of it not really being much of a thing anymore.

As I did with Biden’s decision, I pray the real influencers are approaching this in a thoughtful, disciplined, fact-based manner. If Shapiro gives us our best shot, so be it. As I said, I’m an enthusiastic supporter.

The Fivethirtyeight article!

Don’t forget Clinton/Gore. From two neighboring southern states. Won twice.

Agreed. He’s never held elective office higher than Mayor of South Bend, IN. He should run for Congress / Senate next (…has Indiana ever elected a Democrat?)

Probably discussed in another one of these threads, but doesn’t it have to be BEFORE the convention - which was mind-bogglingly scheduled to occur AFTER the date needed for a nominee to appear on several states’ ballots?

And no love for my man Jared?. :wink:

No. There was an issue with Ohio’s deadline, but that was fixed by the Ohio legislature.

Even in the Senate, they’ve had two Democratic Senators within the past 15 years: Evan Bayh and Joe Donnelly. Bayh served two terms, and then retired, while Donnelly lost his re-election bid in 2018.

Thx. So many issues, so hard to stay up on.

Damn - this has me jazzed!