Richard Parker writes:
> Perhaps while elite schools are increasing their standards, less competitive
> schools are lowering theirs.
I suspect this is closest to the truth. To look over the past, say, 60 years, there have been two trends going on. First, as a proportion of people of college age, about five times as many people are now going to college as were 60 years ago. Given that people aren’t hugely [1] more intelligent than they were 60 years ago, the average college student is thus somewhat less intelligent (assuming that it’s even possible to measure such a thing) and hence on average less well prepared for college.
On the other hand, the most elite colleges have been able to increase their standards over the same period. They now have a much wider spectrum of people applying to them. People who wouldn’t have applied 60 years ago because they thought they were not rich enough, or the wrong race, or the wrong sex, now will apply to the most competitive colleges. (It wasn’t until about 1960 that most of the competitive colleges began accepting women.) The elite colleges now are willing to turn down the not very good students whom they would have accepted 60 years ago merely because their parents were rich or famous or just alumni.
Both of these trends have been slowly going on for at least 60 years now, not just recently. They have actually been fairly slow trends, but when they last for at least 60 years, they make a lot of difference. There’s a third trend going on over this period that most people don’t think about much. A smaller proportion of college degrees these days are in liberal arts subjects. A liberal arts degree is one in the sciences (math, physics, chemistry, biology, etc.) or humanities (English, foreign languages, etc.) or social sciences (sociology, history, anthropology, etc.) Indeed, despite the increase in the number of college students over the past 35 years, there are no more students graduating with degrees in any liberal arts subject except for psychology and biology. The increase in the number of college students has been in non-liberal arts subjects like education, engineering, nursing, medical technology, pharmacy, music performance, business, etc. Non-liberal arts college students are more likely to think of themselves as getting a degree to learn a specific technical discipline rather than getting a degree to “become educated” in any general sense.
A harder question is whether the average 18-year-old is any better prepared for college today than 60 years ago. Certainly more of them, proportionally, have graduated from high school, since 60 years ago only about 50% of them would have a high school degree or would eventually got a G.E.D. Today the proportion is at least 85%. I don’t know of any accurate, non-anecdotal survey that compares the average 18-year-old today with the average 18-year-old 60 years ago on their academic abilities (writing, math, etc.).
[1] Actually, because of the Flynn Effect, they are somewhat more intelligent on average, but it’s not enough to make up for the huge increase in the proportion of people going to college.