I understand why you say this, but I don’t believe in your predictive powers more than I do mine.
We will see.
This is something on which he (and many people here) may be getting it wrong. I said elsewhere, safe money bet is he was NEVER “going to jail” anyway. The system would have recognized privilege… IF he did what other white-collar offenders do and Stopped Digging. But since he won’t do that, and people keep insisting they WANT to see him “go to jail”, he has to keep fighting it.
Seems to me that even as it was the justice system went out of its way to avoid holding him accountable. He violated the terms of his bail dozens of times and committed contempt of court constantly and they refused to do anything about it. Even after he was convicted they postponed his sentencing over and over again as if they were hoping he’d win so they wouldn’t have to. By the time this term is over he’ll be able to plead mental incompetence to stand trial.
I’m really not sure what you are arguing. Of course I know about the Carter pardon. Not at all the same thing. If Trump blanket pardoned for J6 before he left office it would have been an admission that crimes had been committed. At the time he was fighting impeachment and the possibility of being barred from office. Then it would have been against his interest to pardon. Now it will make him look good to his base and feed his ego.
Are you saying he’s not going to pardon them? To be honest it’s hard to tell what you are thinking.
Not all of them. Just the ones who happen to book a two-week stay at Trump International, pay in full in advance, and then no-show their nonrefundable reservation dates.
The rest? There’s nothing they can do for him, so he doesn’t care what happens to them. They can’t vote for him again. They got caught, which makes them “losers” in his book, and they’re already “suckers” for fighting for him in the first place.
As sure as I am that the Sun is coming up in the morning I’m sure you are wrong.
As long as Trump has been in the public eye it still surprises me how little people understand him. It’s not about money. It’s about ego and adoration. The convictions were an indirect attack on him. Pardons are a way to get even and own his enemies. The Cult will love him for it. With a simple no effort act he strokes his ego and feels the adoration of his Cult. It’s a no brainer.
Trump no longer needs the Cult, though. He’s gotten everything he wanted from them. They’re the ones who need him, so if they expect some pro quo from him they’re gonna have to pony up the quid.
This is a man who no longer feels any obligation to keep any promise he has ever made to anyone.
Sideshows are his main strategy. Requires no deep thought on his part.
Oh shit. You may be right.
It really is a great point. In fact, it needn’t be a blanket pardon to serve that purpose. He could pardon anyone who did not personally commit an act of violence (worded better than that, with appropriate legalese).
That way he gets a big PR splash, not nearly as much blowback, and most important to him, sets the stage for testing the constitutional validity of self-pardons.
It’s freaking weird. Accepting a pardon, is an admission of guilt though, is it not?
Not that Trump would care, or understand.
I think SCOTUS has his back on that already. Will be interesting (and frightful) to see how this pans out.
This is mob boss stuff. Pure and simple. Like saying Putin is not guilty of the invasion of Ukraine because he never picked up a gun.
But as was said, he wants the adoration. He wants to be applauded and praised, and for others to see him being applauded and praised, as he stands there saying what great things he has done, whether or not he has or is only imagining them. And if it means people buy and pay their dollars into the next grift hey, even better. So he can make a grand gesture to look like he’s rewarding the cult members.
Yeah, really. Some of us may be overthinking him.
50% of Americans voted for him. That’s a number that boggles the mind. But I do think he’s concerned about his cult having a positive image of his legacy which is now 50% of the electorate so I don’t think for a moment that he will not pardon the Jan 6 terrorists.
As delusional and demented as they are, will they still support the guy that could have pardoned them 4 years ago?
Are any of them smart enough to understand this?
No one seems to remember anything more than a few months old. Heck, IMHO until Biden effed up that first debate (I still think he had a small stroke) I believe this election was a shoe in for the democrats.
You don’t admit guilt. Accepting a pardon carries an imputation of guilt (the wording of the appropriate caselaw). That’s not the same thing. You can find plenty of examples of people who accepted a pardon who don’t admit guilt. Besides a large majority of those who have been found guilty already admitted guilt by taking a plea deal.
Exactly right. If he signs the pardon on the 20th he will get to see the Fox and Friends crew praising him for it on the 21st. He loves that.
Let’s say he doesn’t issue a unilateral pardon. Now in the months to come somewhere around 1,000 pardon applications come in for people he promised to pardon. The crowd cheered when he promised to pardon. He’s going to ignore the requests? Of course not. He wants those cheers and adoration. It’s not about keeping promises. It’s about getting those cheers and not hearing those followers turn on him.
The crowd cheers when he blows a microphone, but I don’t imagine we’ll see him follow up on that promise.
A pardon also signals to those who will be committing more crimes on his behalf during the next four years that he has their back. He’ll pardon them. Probably not on day 1, when he’s already in the news, but about a month in when he needs a distraction from the latest scandal.