If we’re voting, I disagree.
There is a problem. The trading of keeper picks is biased to people who a) finish at the ends of the spectrum and b) to the people with the time and interest to shop their picks. It frankly feels like a chore.
If we see people gaming the system, then we’ll address it when the time comes. For right now I don’t see this FUD argument being a compelling reason to keep the status quo.
Trading keepers offers no benefit and it reduces my enjoyment.
I’d rather not trade a system which is open and transparent for one which invites cloak and daggers and wild accusations. I’d especially not like a system which doesn’t actually define its own rules and leaves open-ended punishments for “when the time comes” to enforce the unenforceable. But you’re right that it is a chore.
Don’t allow keepers with traded picks is a simple solution. It’s a mostly hypothetical problem - people aren’t really going to be trading non-keeper picks. Maybe rarely someone will move down in the first round because they don’t want the #1 overall pick or something, but that sort of thing rarely happens. The only pre-draft trading really revolves around exploiting the keeper system. People know what picks they’d need to make keepers, so just make a simple rule saying you can only make a keeper with your natural pick in a round and problem solved.
The draft is up with 5 minutes until the start. If you’re on, time to hop in.
Draft results!
I hate my team, therefore I won’t be doing a draft recap.
Draft recap! I’ll do my team for now and work on the rest during the week.
Quarterbacks: I’m pretty happy with Matt Ryan as my starter, and even happier with Freeman as my backup. I’ve been platooning Philip Rivers and whoever (Freeman last year) for the last two seasons, so it will be nice to have somebody less erratic and not have to worry about who to start week-to-week. If Freeman does what I think he will this year he’ll be trade bait by Week 5.
Running Backs: I always draft running backs for a high floor… until now. This year I’ve got CJ2K and a ton of prospects, plus Mendenhall who will hopefully produce based on volume. Even CJ2K is a questionmark; he might rush for 2,000 yards, but he could just as easily struggle to 1,000 like last year. I’m inclined to think he’ll be in the 1,400 range with the Titans’ new zone blocking scheme. Bernard won’t start to begin the year but he’s the best long term prospect in this draft (runs, catches, will be in for goal line carries, tied to a good young offense) and I’m pretty sure he’ll be worth keeping next year. Taylor, too, even if he doesn’t win the starting job. Stewart is a total flier; if he doesn’t produce, his contract will force the team to cut him (or D-Will) in the offseason and he could easily end up with somebody else’s starting job.
Wide Receivers: Top to bottom, I’ve probably got one of the three best WR groups in the league. Stevie Johnson and Mike Williams are both borderline WR2 options, and Randle has the always productive #3 spot for NYG. Hakeem Nicks is bound to get injured, and even if he doesn’t I can’t see the Giants paying big money to keep him.
Tight Ends: As you may have noticed, I’m high on Brandon Myers. Anyone who can put up numbers in Oakland is going to put up big numbers with Eli, even if his targets go down a bit. Martellus Bennett had 626 yards in NY last year and Myers is a much better receiver.
Kicker: I got one of those. He plays in a dome with a high-powered offense, too.
Defense: Can’t ever go far wrong with the Pats D, much as I hate them.
I don’t really like this team, but looking back through the draft there wasn’t much I’d do differently. There wasn’t an AP sitting there at the end of Round 1 this year. I could have taken McFadden or Ryan Mathews, but both of those guys are bound to be on IR by Week 8. I do have a lot of keeper potential, which is something I don’t normally end up with. I think too many of these players (Bernard included) are a year away for me to win the league this year.
Yahoo has a pretty fun automated draft grading system, which everyone should have gotten in their email. It’s also listed on the league site, but here are the grades anyway.
Off Constantly A
Moridwon (Hamlet) B+
Varlos’ Zzzzzzz B+
Fightin’ Quakers B+
No Use For A Name B
HungryHungryHaruspex B
Baltimore Weirdos B
Ottoman Empire B
Exploding Pancakes B-
Fourth & Nineteen C
Omnipotents C
9 Inch Neils (RNATB) C
Crabby Hermits C-
Spiritus Mundane D
Most of the grading seems to be bugged. I got a B, which is either tied for the 5th best grade, but my team is projected to finish 10th. And the keeper analysis is bizarre. Still, this beats my mocks where I ended up with a bottom three roster in just about every one.
I’ll be posting my team review soon, and hopefully a team by team review within the week.
I did several mock drafts with an app that allowed me to plug in keepers, so I had a good idea of how the draft would go. For the most part, things played out to the script, and I think I got some advantage from that. I don’t recall a single player I targeted being taken within the 3-5 picks in front of mine.
• Go RB/RB in the first two picks.
I found myself disliking the second overall pick the more I mock drafted it. Getting my choice of the second tier of RBs is great, but I found myself stressed by the pressure of picking the wrong guy there. But of more importance is the second pick. Having drafted in this league enough to understand this league’s unique quirks, I’ve finally learned the hard way how quickly the RBs dry up. Even waiting to my fourth pick would leave me with major question marks at my second RB spot. After last season’s disaster where I drafted only one starting RB and had to scramble for a player who would see the field enough to justify starting them, I was focused most on filling those two spots.
• Wait on QB
QB is crazy deep thanks to the influx of successful, young QBs over the past two or three seasons. For the first time that I can remember, you’re perfectly fine to the be the 14th guy who gets a QB. I liked the value of waiting on QB that I routinely ended up selecting one in the 7th or 8th. The problem is that waiting set back my overall scoring ability too much at the expense of stronger depth. Going into the draft, I knew QB would be the most critical spot on my team and my ability to handle the position would determine my overall success.
• Tank the TE spot
With TE, there are two or three (maybe four) elite guys. After that, there’s no difference in my eyes from TEs 5-14. I figured I’d be the last to draft a starter since the 14th guy is just as good as the 5th one.
• Get at least one strong keeper at RB and WR
Keepers aren’t completely necessary in this league, but going into a season without a good keeper is nearly always too difficult to overcome. Because I was on my last season with Jordy Nelson, and Demaryius Thomas was unlikely to be worth a #1 next year, I knew I would have to restock the shelves with this draft. Since my mock drafted teams usually came out fairly weak, I knew I would have at best a moderate chance to compete this season. It was really important that I had viable keeper potential for next season.
So how did I do?
QB - Andrew Luck (4th)
I didn’t expect to get a QB so early, but I never ran a mock where someone like Luck was available with my 4th. My choice here was a QB with a lot of potential, or McFadden/Mathews as my third RB (similar fantasy risks, but great 3rd RBs). When looking at the other teams and the remaining players, I knew I wouldn’t get a top QB option with my 5th pick, but there were plenty of good 3rd RBs left. I called it right - the last of the high potential QBs were taken by the end of the 4th.
The problem here is that Luck doesn’t have great keeper potential unless he takes a leap this season. Luck’s 2012 was actually very similar to Peyton’s 1st and 2nd seasons. If Luck makes a jump like Peyton did in his third season, Luck would slot right into the 2nd round, which would be his keeper spot. Not great value, but some potential there.
I didn’t get a backup QB. This is partly because I didn’t figure how much the back end of the QB pool would dry up in this league, and because I don’t want to have a useless player holding up a roster spot as late as week 8. (With an earlier bye, I’d have been more likely to take a second QB) Rostering a backup looks like a fool’s errand to me, and I’ll wager the chance that Luck gets hurt against the additional RB/WR keeper spot I’ll have over everyone else.
RB - Doug Martin (1st), Lamar Miller (2nd), Daryl Richardson (5th), Bryce Brown (7th), Mike Tolbert (13th), Lance Dunbar (15th)
I got my two RBs with my first two picks, and while I hate rookie RBs in general, I’m thrilled someone with the talent of Miller fell to me because he was the last of that RB tier that was available. Miller and Martin are locked into their jobs (anyone who has seen Daniel Thomas play knows he poses no threat) and are both young and have high ceilings. At worst, Miller ends up as a 75/25 lead back with Thomas, but that’s still startable and still better than the alternatives.
Richardson was the guy I ended up with in every mock I did, only he was always my #2 RB, taken in the 4th. I’m scared with that outcome, but with him as a flex, I’m really happy. He’s perfect at that spot, and I think he has incredible upside. Some are scared of Pead and Stacy on the roster, but both looked sluggish and lost throughout the preseason. Richardson has the starting job on lock and he has the talent to run away with it.
Bryce “Jerome Harrison” Brown is among the most talented RBs in the NFL. Pure talent, he’s top ten, easily. The problem is that he’s undisciplined and has trouble holding the football. If he figures it out, and I think he’ll get a fair amount of chances as the #2 RB in Philly, he has elite upside. I think he’ll be startable during the bye weeks and end up with a top 30 RB finish (50 total yards per game and 5 TDs).
Tolbert is a flier, because I think DeAngelo Williams can’t handle the load himself and Jonathan Stewart looks done. At the very least, I can see one of those classic touchdown vulture seasons, which has value. Dunbar is a terrific late round flier. He’s the clear #2 in Dallas and DeMarco “Glass” Murray is all that’s ahead of him. Murray has been decidedly mediocre since his breakout start in 2011. Murray is only signed for through 2014, so Dunbar has a really good chance at an expanded role beyond this season. if Murray doesn’t improve significantly.
Keepers: Richardson has good value as a 3rd next season if he reaches his potential and holds the job all season. Brown has the most talent and upside, but he’ll still be a #2 next season and will only be worth his 5th round pick if he finishes with 1000/6+ (65yd/gm), which is a reasonable but optimistic projection. Tolbert could sneak into terrific value next season, and Dunbar is a potential grand slam.
WR - Demaryius Thomas (kept in 3rd), Jordy Nelson (kept in 6th), Alshon Jeffery (8th), Emmanuel Sanders (9th), Percy Harvin (11th)
I considered setting Thomas and Nelson free before the draft because, while each has good value in their kept round, I’m not thrilled with either. But looking around, I could have done much, much worse. I think I have a strong argument that they are comparable to the best WR tandem anyone in the league has.
I’m not completely sold on my WR depth, which I found surprisingly thin compared to my mocks. Still, Jeffery and Sanders are good enough. Jeffery looked incredible in the preseason and it isn’t like Marshall is a paragon of good health. Both he and Sanders have no roadblocks to playing time and each has the opportunity to be startable.
Harvin is a pure keeper pick, I don’t expect he’ll be useful this season. But a healthy Harvin in the 9th next season is a tremendous advantage. Beyond him, I expect Jeffery is the only other possible keeper, and he needs to make a jump to do so.
TE - Jordan Cameron (10th), Zach Sudfeld (12th)
I expected to tank the position, but I think I actually did okay. Cameron has elite upside and the most TE friendly offensive coordinator in the world. I took him in the 10th because I expected a TE run to empty the remaining startable options and I luckily jumped the run on the position. He’s a fine value.
Sudfeld was a complete panic pick. I never, ever expected to take a 2nd TE. Of all my picks, I think this was the one I liked least… but assuming Belichick runs the same offense, Sudfeld might be one of the best values on my team. I think I have a very good shot at a competent starter, between the two of them. I hope one of them takes off early because both share a bye week so someone will have to go by week 10.
K - Alex Henery (16th)
I end up with Henery every year because this is the least damaging homer pick possible. In my defense, he’ll be the 1st or 2nd most accurate kicker in NFL history when he qualifies for career attempts this season and the Philly offense should provide tons of opportunities; both because they’ll move the ball often and easily, and because Vick is terrible in the red zone. In as much as kickers can be predicted at all, I think Henery is a great bet to finish better than the 13th kicker overall.
DEF - St. Louis (15th)
I wanted to draft a defense earlier but never found a good chance. I suppose the 12th round would have worked, but that’s too early to not get a top defense and three or four had been drafted to that point. St. Louis is fine. They have a great pass rush and terrific corners and Tavon Austin returning some type of a kick. And I think the NFC West might struggle to score more than most think.
Overall:
I expected this team to struggle, but I’m pleasantly surprised by how balanced the team turned out. My core of Martin, Thomas, and Luck don’t reveal any obvious holes. Lamar Miller and Jordy Nelson are above average 2nd starters at their positions in this league. I think between Richardson, Brown, Jeffery, and Sanders, I should have at least one startable flex each week. I don’t think this team can make the playoffs, but I think I have a fair chance at it. It’ll come down to Luck (badum cha).
While I don’t hate my team,I’m not blown away by it either. I ended up horridly thin at RB. In hindsight I probably should have passed on Wilson in the 4th and opted for another RB. I should have used pick #5 for my QB and passed on D. Jackson (who I don’t like anyway, but I couldn’t pass him up). The only other huge error I made was passing on Andre Brown to pick up my defence. I knew it was stupid but I really thought he’d still be there when it snaked back. He got selected with the very next pick.
I’ll do a further review later, but first impression of this draft feels like a C+ with upside.
Moridwon (Hamlet)
My draft was all about sticking to my tiers, drafting guys for value, and panic. This draft, I didn’t get many of “my guys”, and outside my keepers, I’m not huge fans of many of my players. I generally dislike those kinds of drafts, just because I like having guys I can root for and for that “I knew them before you guys thought they were cool” vibe. So I like my draft, but I don’t love it.
First Round
I had 6 guys in my top RB tier, and I desperately hoped that one would fall to me, and Marshawn did. He was an obvious pick to me, because RB is such a priority in this league. The only problem is I don’t like him at all, and I expect a bit of a drop in production this year. Still, he was the obvious choice.
Second Round
I wanted to go RB/RB, but there was nobody left worth the pick after Gore went 3 picks before. QB was out because only Rodgers and Brees were worth a pick there, and they were gone too. I had Fitzy as my highest rated WR available, and the last one in my second tier of WR, so another obvious choice. I don’t think he’ll finish as a top 5 WR, but at least I like having him on my team. I wanted Julio Jones or Frank Gore, but I had to settle for Fitzy.
Third Round
Again, my tiers I had Stafford as my final 2nd tier QB and my keepers were WR’s, so my Stafford or Nicks decision was easy. I think Stafford has another high volume year, and that he’ll improve a bit when his WR’s stop falling down on the 2 yard line.
Fourth Round
This was the toughest call in the draft for me. There were a couple of guys left at a position of desperate need, the best of which was Ryan Matthews. I think Matthews will have a better season and that he’s pretty great value there. And then I saw Gronk (Gronk SMASH!!!) still there. Gronk’s upside is so much higher than Matthews’s though. So I rolled the dice, took Gronk, and may have fucked up my RB position for this year.
Fifth, Sixth Round, and Eight Rounds
Pure desperation took over. I had two keeper WR’s coming up in the 7th and 9th, and had one starting RB on my roster. I had to quit playing for value (I would have loved to have Miles Austin on my team in the 5th round), suck it up, and grab me some RB’s. Law Firm was the last of the healthy starting RB’s, but he’s splitting time with a more electric runner, so I don’t expect much. Christine Michael was a reach, but I wanted to backup Lynch. And Fred Jackson is a shot in the dark. I do have high hopes for Fred, and I think he’s a fine pick in the 8th, but these picks were clearly more about desperation than value. Hopefully BGE can carry the #2RB role.
Round 10
I knew I was going TE here, because of Gronk’s health starting the year, and I thought they were good value. I was very happy to get Owen Daniels.
Round 11
Back to tiers. Phillip Rivers was the last QB I could possible consider starting, and may have potential trade bait in a 14 team league.
Rounds 12, 14, 15.
Keeper spots. I wanted to grab guys who may contribute this year, but have some upside in the future too. Quizz Rodgers fit the bill, and I’m hoping the wear and tear on Steven Jackson shows this year. Andre Brown’s injury is scary, but I’m not a David Wilson guy, and I like his TD vulture potential. And Jeremy Maclin could be a great value next year in the second year of Chip Kelly’s offense.
Rest
I got a defense and kicker. Yippee!!! (I actually like the Bengals’ D this year. Here’s hoping Geno Atkins’ signing an extension doesn’t slow him down).
Overall, outside of my desperation for a RB, I liked my draft. I got value at almost all my spots, and I like my keepers situation. I know I have a gaping hole at RB2 (c’mon Fred Jackson!), but hopefully one of my depth guys will contribute. I really need Marshawn to have a good year, or things could go very badly, very quickly. I only wish more of “my guys” would have been on my team.
Any draft that starts with AP has a good foundation. Unfortunately you built a straw house on top of it. Your next 2 picks were driven by the board, clearly. No RB left good enough for the turn so you went WR-WR. I don’t particularly like the pair you picked - neither one has any upside beyond where they have peaked, and Johnson in particular looks poised for a slide - but I can’t fault your strategy and both have high floors. Paired with AP this is still a good start.
Round is where you start to go off the track. Having resisted reaching for a bad RB in the first turn, you fell prey to McFadden’s alure in round 4. There’s injury prone, then there’s injury guaranteed, and then there’s McFadden. Add in an Oakland offense that shows signs of truly monumental futility and I McFadden was on my under no circumstances list. With Cam as a keeper in 5 you had to go RB here, but I would have reached in literally any other direection.
Cam was good value in round 5 as a keeper. Gonzo is jut a guy - taken 5-6 rounds earlier than a a bunch of other TE’s that will put up similar numbers. Sproles is solid value as a keeper, but after that is where your draft really LaFell apart. Maybe you figured a (nearly) solid front 7 was all you needed. You might be right - AP can carry a heavy load. But if any one of your starters under-performs you are going to be in trouble.
Let’s go down the list of your second half:
[ul][li]DHB - maybe your best pick of the second half, which is so ridiculous it is hard to type. But still taken probably 2 rounds too early[/li][li]Danario Aleander - on IR[/li][li]Schaub - a decent #2 QB, but too ealry to take one.[/li][li] LaMichael James - torn MCL. 3rd best back on teh team when he returns. 4th best when Latimore returns.[/li][li]Daniel Thomas - mediocre backup RB who has already shown he can’t make antthing happen when he gets a shot.[/li][li]Mohamed Sanu - mediocre WR2 for 6 weeks, then rides the pine when Hawkins returns from IR[/li][li]Brandon LaFell - another mediocre WR2 with limite upside[/li][li]Arizona - it’s a defense. Week 1 matchup against the Rams isn’t great for them, though, if last season is any guide.[/li][li]Shayne Graham - currently kicking rocks down the street.[/ul][/li]
Wow - that’s a lot of no keeper value and not much currnt value at teh bottom fo the draft. This team will go as far as Cam and AP can carry it - but they won’t get a lot of help.
I love Martin. Was hopping he would slide to me at 3. I hate you. That is all.
I went into this draft with great field position, but very little in terms of things like “strategy” and “prep work”. I’d certainly read a few articles on potential keepers, and at one point probably had a few targets, but that particular chunk of information completely escaped me once the draft began. I came out with probably the best group of starters in the league, but extremely little depth or talent beyond that. Here’s my final roster:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB1: CJ Spiller
RB2: Steven Jackson
WR1: AJ Green
WR2: Reggie Wayne
R/W: Cecil Shorts/Knowshon Moreno
TE: Kyle Rudolph
K: Blair Walsh
DEF: Houston
Bench: Alex Smith, Michael Floyd, Donnie Avery, Andre Roberts, Bilal Powell, Johnathan Franklin
Round 1: Jackson was pretty much one of the last guys I wanted to fall to me - I was hoping to get Forte or MJD, but they went right before me. I worry about the number of targets in Atlanta, but Turner got 240 touches last season with 10 TDs - S-Jax will get his.
Round 2: RBs are essential in this league, that’s for certain. But I already have Spiller as a keeper, which gave me tons of flexibility here. One thing that has hurt me in the past is not having a consistent QB to rely on (Schaub/Palmer didn’t quite cut it last year). So I sprung on Aaron Rodgers. I don’t feel it was too late - there were three QBs off the board by the 8th pick last year.
Round 3: As a 3rd round keeper, AJ Green is the dream scenario (okay - Alfred Morris in the 10th is, but AJ is a top 5 WR, and was the 14th off the board).
Round 4: I still wanted another reliable WR, and Reggie Wayne was still on the board at #44. That’s about a 10 pick value, and I still think he has another solid year ahead of him. Despite TY Hilton’s ascension in Indy, Reggie is still the main target. I’d still be targeting depth later on, though.
Round 5: I backed up my first round Fred Jackson last year with Spiller in the 7th, and he got me comfortably into the playoffs. I feel that he’ll do the same from the 5th round this year as well.
Round 6: Now I start backing up my WR depth by picking up Cecil Shorts. He’s a huge deep threat, and could look like DeSean Jackson from a few years ago (the season that wasn’t terrible). As a flex, I’m happy with his chances despite his QB situation.
Round 7: I did not expect all the RBs taken between my 6th and 7th picks to be off the board, otherwise I would have taken a flyer on one of them. As it is, I think that Michael Floyd is a great pick here, and could provide solid keeper value for the next two years.
Round 8: I was really happy to pick up Knowshon Moreno in a second league, as he seems to be the current #1 in Denver. His pass blocking skills will almost certainly assure him of the job throughout the season, as Peyton doesn’t suffer bad blockers very well (“God dammit, Donald!”). I’ll be happy with 750/5.
Round 9: Aaaaand things start falling apart. For some reason, I was under the impression that I had read quite a few pieces about Powell being the possible go-to back this season for the Jets, and that Ivory was on his way out. I believe I might have gotten those two mixed up…
Round 10: Kyle Rudolph has gotten a lot of superhype this season, but that didn’t translate to this league. He’s certainly a possible top 5 TE, and round 10 is about right for that talent. Once Cameron went off the board (who I like as well - but not as much as Rudolph), I had to pick him up. As the 9th TE off the board, I won’t complain if he falls short of 600/6, which is what I expect.
Round 11: I was also hoping to pick up a QB after my Rudolph pick - and apparently everyone else was as well. This is where I probably should have focused on the future instead of a backup for Rodgers that I’ll either use once, or slide into the consolation round with should Rodgers get hurt. Either way, Alex Smith and I have each other for at least 4 weeks.
Round 12: And I started losing focus of who would be a solid keeper option, who I needed to fill out my roster, where any RBs are still standing, etc. - so I panicked and grabbed a defense. Houston seems to be good, right?
Round 13: I had a couple WR deep sleepers picked out, but I like Avery’s chances in the new Chiefs offense this season. There’s going to be someone else catching balls when Bowe is double covered, right?
Round 14: I will admit it - I saw Jonathan Franklin’s name on a “deep sleepers” list, and thought “what the hell?”. That list *might *have been a little outdated.
Round 15: I got a kicker! What, so did everyone else? Oh - this isn’t nearly as exciting as I thought. To add a twist to it, he has the same bye week as my TE, so I don’t think I’ll be sticking with Mr. Walsh after Week 5.
Round 16: Either Andre Roberts or Michael Floyd is going to emerge as a clear #2 in Arizona. It’ll probably be Floyd, and Roberts will lose his spot to a backup TE in Week 5.
Charles is a little to boom/bust for me at pick 4, but he certainly has a high upside. If I were a feeling risky I still would have taken Foster here. If not then Lynch. But you ended up backing one risky RB with 2 others - Murray and Williams. You invested 3 of your top 4 and 4 of your top 6 picks on RB. For that investment this really should be a dominant coorps, but there are way too many question marks for me. Ingram at 6 might be your best pick of the bunch. It’s a good group, just not solid enough to justify your investment. You did at least handcuff Charles, so that is good.
I like Bowe to have a strong year with an accurate QB for the first time in his career. But he is a risk. Pairing him with Charles means you are betting heavy onn the KC offense to be explosive enough to feed 2 of your top 3 picks every week. Hey - I’m a believer, too, but you are drinking deep of the ANdy Reid Kool-Aid. Garcon looked like he had rhythm with RGIII last season befor eht einjury, but it’s worth remembering that he has never had a 1,000 yds or more than 6 TD’s in a season. With BOwe-Garcon at teh top of your WR corps, you should have gone for solid value at WR3/4 and then shot for keepers late. Instead you took a rookie WR2 who may gets to be the next partner to starve for targets next to Andre Johnson on a team that loves to run the ball in the red zone more than anyone else. Then a rookie another rookie who is tring to become Drew Brees’ 4[sup]th[/sup] favorite target. Malcolm Floyd in round 12 might end up being your most reliable WR3 if he can get healthy - and that shoul dmake you very nervous.
You waited to take a QB, which was sound strategy, then grabbed Vick in round 7. Another high-risk, high-reward pick. You clearly have the soul pf a riverboat gambler. You then backed him up with Cutler, taken too early for a backup QB. Hell - at this point you are so invested in the KC dream you should have taken Alex Smith. If he has a bad year you are sunk anyway.
Greg Olsen was a solid keeper. Eifert in 15 was a good value/keeper pick. But when TE is your most solid posiion you might have a gambling problem.
Kicker and a DEF ear the end. Check. But Carolina was a poor fantasy DEF last year and has an unfavorable week 1 matchup, so I don’t understand why you picked them.
Gambler’s Anonymous called and said that you have some solid keeper value in Eifert, but the blinds are goig to kill you before you draw to the Hopkins, Stills, Floyf inside straight. They recommend seeking help from someplace other than KC.
I believe in Foster this year. Almost took him @ 3, but thought Rice was more reliable and I really want reliable with a top 10 pick. Foster has huge upside, though, and without injury risk would have been a clear #2 pick, so you could end up very happy. At leastm you could be happy with this pick. The rest of the draft . . .
Tom Brady. I love Tom Brady. Great QB. Lives the dream life with a chip on his shoulder because nobody loved him 10 years ago. And it works. Lock him in for a playoof run and a pro bowl - take that to the Bunchen. But remember what Tom Brady was like before he had great receivers. Before Moss and Welker and Gronkandez? Yeah - expect to see a lot of that Brady handing off to Ridley, Vereen, and Blount. QB is deep this year. Much deeper than RB or reliable WR1. You overdrafted Brady and paid the price afer.
Torrey Smith. Horribly over-valued based on “who else will Flaco throw to?” But neither Pita nor bolden were taking the throws that would be going to Smith now. they thrive in teh middle and underneath routes, willing to man up ot the big boys and drive for tough yards. Anyoen really believe Torry Smith is going to suddenly find thpse catches and YAC? Anyone besides the Mad Hermit, that is? Smith is a borderline WR2 in fantast, and you took him before Reggie Wayne, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith. Hell - Mike Wallace is a beter bet this year and you took him 2 rounds later.
Which leads us to teh rest of your WR corps. Nice recovery with Wallace. I don;t love him overall, but he was good value where you took him. I don;t buy the sudden Bolden love this year, either - a playoff run does not equal regular season dominance - but he’s a good WR3 and possible flex. And behond that - oh my. George takei called and asked whether you need help finding some good men.
[ul][li]Sidney Rice - brittle, help out of preseason games for fear he might get touched. But no reason to think he can’t once again threaten the 750 yard threshold. [/li][li]Markus Wheaton - becaue the high-flying Steelers can surely feed 3 WRs. Oh, wait - Jericho Cotchery is their WR3. [/li][li]Julian Edelman - produced a massive 235 receiving yards last year. But this year he has already fallen behind 2 rookies and a free agent acquisition to compete with Josh Boyce for 5[sup]th[/sup] seat on the Brady express[/ul][/li]
Wow - that might be the worst bench strength at skill position in the league. Except for your running backs.
[ul][li]Ahmad Bradshaw - I;m sure he’ll beat out Vick Ballard eventually and be a frustrating RB2 hit-or-miss-or-strain-or-sprain prospect for you.[/li][li]Jonathan Dwyer - I’m sure he’ll find a team eventually. Maybe in the CFL[/li][li]Felix Jones - still good enough to chase Jonathon Dwyer to teh street. Yeah - so he has that going for him.[/li][li]Wait - that’s it. Really? Wow[/li][li]Just wow.[/ul][/li]
Hey - another guy who took 2 TE’s. But neither has keeper value, and you chose Miller in round 13. WHat happened? Did you panic when Sudfeld went off the board and forget how to spell Eifert?
Eli Manning woyld have been a nice pick in round 7, except that you took Brady in Round 2. You can;t afford to invest that much in a backup QB or in teh QB position at all. If Brady goes down your season is done. Spending a 7 on a one week player is just a poor investment.
DEF and a K, check. Overpaid for the D, check.
Keeper value - hell, I’m not even sure you should be keeping them this year.
Autodraft, meet autoreview.
Ow
Megatron in 1. Bold move, sir. He si truly a moster but passing on an RB at pick 7 might criplle you . . . what’s that? Alfred Morris as a keeper in Round 10? Shit. You bastard. Well played, damn you, well played. A massive keeper value let’s you grab the top WR in the game and still come back in Round 2 and grab a WR2 on teh don side of a brilliant career and ready to lose targets to a rising superstar. Say what?
Okay, not the obvious follow up to a dominating opening gambit,but you can still use round 3 to . . . pick a rising young QB on a run-first team who threw for more than 250 yards once last year. But he added 5 rushing TD’s. If only that were not half as many as his passing TD’s.
Round 4. Now you finally get around to drafting a RB to pair with Morris. And now we see the price of your delay. Ryan Matthews. Remember that monster year he had when he stayed healthy? Yeah - that was 2009. And Fresno State. Last year he managed to get outscored by Joique Bell, Felix Jones, and Pierre thomas. He had more brken collar bones than TD’s. Well - it’s still early in the draft. You still have time to fill in behind with . . .
[ul][li]Ben Tate[/li][li]Kendall Hunter[/li][li]Zac Stacy[/li][li]Joseph Randle[/li][/ul]Your team name should be Alfred Morris and the Ambulance Chasers. Except that Matthews would be in the ambulance.
Round 5. After the Matthews pick you really should have been thinking a solid, reliable RB here since you were strong at WR and had grabbed you QB early. Instead , you passed on Law Firm and grab yet another WR. Hey - I like Tate a bit this year, too. Someone will pick up the touches from harvin until week whatever. But he’s still unproven. He had 600 yds last year and won’t be getting many looks inside the 10. But the real issue here is you have invested 3 of your top 5 picks in WR. Morris was a great keeper, but you’ve allowed him to distort your entire draft. I haven;t seen a dominant opening turn bad that fast since Raheem Morris was a head coach.
Look - Morris & Megatron are a magnificent 1-2 punch. Roddy White still has a stud season in the tank and has a very high floor. That may e enough. But it sure looks like you felt that was such a strong beginning you could play pretty much the rest of your draft for next year (except for when you overpaid for Palmer as a second QB). Hey - maybe you’re right. Fred Davis was a strong pick in 8, and Kaepernick might might only rhyme with Vick. But I would have invested in a couple of solid, reliable scorers before (or after) loading up quite so heavily on the smorgasborg of potential
Keeper potential - Morris is a lock for one more year (bastard). Josh Gordon could be worth a 5 next year. And if one of your ambulances comes in then you might have 2 RB’s to keep next year, so there is that. Although Stacy and Randle aren;t even clear backups for their teams.
So I went into the draft with a few theories. 1) QB is crazy deep, wait on it. 2) RB is crazy shallow, get it early. 3) WR gets ugly fast once the “safe” guys are gone, attack it with volume and upside. 4) Having bad keepers sucks in this league, find some this year for a change.
When I saw that I had the 4th pick I was relatively pleased, a little better than 2 and a lot better than 9-14, but 6-8 would have been ideal. Also, it’s abundantly clear that my theories above were in no way revolutionary, this might be the most consensusy of any draft in recent memory. Let’s walk through my pick-by-pick logic.
Omnipotents
(4) Jamaal Charles
(25) DeMarco Murray
(32) Dwayne Bowe
(53) DeAngelo Williams
(60) Pierre Garcon
(81) Mark Ingram
(88) Michael Vick
(109) DeAndre Hopkins
(116) Greg Olsen
(137) Jay Cutler
(144) Kenny Stills
(165) Malcom Floyd
(172) Knile Davis
(193) Matt Prater
(200) Tyler Eifert
(221) Carolina
Charles felt like the right guy here. Like everyone else in the world, I felt like there was little difference between RBs 2-6. I considered McCoy, but the uncertainty of Kelly’s system scared me off. I considered Foster but he seems even more of an injury risk than Charles this year. Of all these guys, I think Charles has the best chance of out-APing AP.
Murray has been one of “my guys” since he was a rookie. I had him in several leagues as a late round flier and he paid off. Ever since then he’s been a crapshoot, though he won me a couple leagues with his late resurgence last year. With Murray it’s all about timing and backups, he’s fragile as hell but when he suits up he produces. I am way out on the Lacy/Miller hype and there wasn’t another RB even close here. I briefly considered WR but don’t like any of the guys who went between this and my next pick and I had a WR keeper already.
Really happy to get Bowe. This is probably the Matthew Berry hype getting to me, but I think he could have a monster year. I’m not a Andy Reid fan, but Bowe was productive with way shittier coaches and QBs than he will have this year. Like him way more than Welker, Andre Johnson, Roddy White or Fitzy. I REALLY thought long and hard about Gronk here, but ultimately Bowe was safer and I had a TE keeper.
Everyone is hating on this pick, but I’m making it in a lot of leagues. I know DeAngelo is old and has been fantasy herpes for a lot of people, but with J-Stew finally dead I think he has one big year left in him. He’'s not particularly fragile and he’s going to be one of few RBs not in a 50-50 timeshare. The biggest concern is Cam vulturing goal line touches. For a flex/Murray insurance I like the option. I would have preferred Bradshaw here but he got plucked. A case could have been made that I should roll the dice with the second crop of rookie RBs here, but neither of those guys are starters right now.
Garcon was a keeper. I was iffy on keeping him, this is probably right where he belongs, but it’s not like I had better keepers and it clarified my strategy at the top of the draft a little. Could have had Britt, Austin or Stevie Johnson here but I view Garcon as safer than those options and he could have elite upside if that chemistry with RG3 continues.
I was really excited with this pick. I have HATED Ingram since he came into the league and viewed him as “just a guy”. I’ve been largely vindicated in that, but in this league with my injury prone RBs I needed another one who seemed a safe bet to get touches and TDs. Ingram is that, and the odds are really good that Pierre Thomas is gone next year making Ingram a potentially solid keeper. Best pick of the round IMHO.
Waiting on QB was my plan and I executed, but the rest of the league went a little QB crazy this year in the middle rounds. I was expecting Romo to be available here, but that 3rd round run killed me a bit. Still I think this pick could be an interesting one. I think Vick is shakey at best as a QB, but if the Kelly hype pans out Vick will be one of the biggest fantasy beneficiaries of it. Frankly how Vick plays could determine the league this year. Manning would have been a safer (and maybe smarter) play, but I decided to swing for the fences.
Hopkins was a little bit of a panic pick. I was dead set on filling out my 3rd WR spot with this pick and frankly the options were pretty barren. I was hoping for Thompkins and considered Jeffery, Patterson and DHB here but ultimately I chose Hopkins for some flimsy reasons: that if I was right in predicting the demise of Andre Johnson someone would have to pick up the slack, and Hopkins had been going higher than this in other drafts so maybe people know something I don’t. Plus…keeper.
Olsen was a keeper. Didn’t love it, but like Garcon he represents solid value here. I don’t buy the “Olsen will be the #3 TE in fantasy this year” hype but the fact that it exists makes him at least worth a shot. He’s probably on par with Rudolph and Cameron for upside, but there wasn’t anyone on the board I was aching to pick here.
With Vick being the fragile type getting a 2nd QB was crucial. Would have preferred to wait a couple rounds more but with Palmer and Flacco coming off the board my hand was forced. Doesn’t hurt that it’s a homer pick and there’s at least a argument to make that Cutler could have a breakout year under Trestman.
I think Stills is a steal here. Being a NO WR in fantasy is certainly a stigma, but there’s no doubt they are going to throw. In preseason it looks like Stills is legit and should be a steadier contributor than Meachem or Henderson ever were. But you know, NO WR so we’ll see. The wheels could come off on Colston soon so he’s a way above average keeper potential.
Knowing that I swung big on rookie/keeper WRs in the previous picks I needed to get someone with a job at least assured. Floyd is the #1 on a one-time productive offense and when you look at the WRs drafted from round 11 on he’s clearly the most proven. The injury stuff sucks, but at least he’s not a rookie and he has a QB.
Got my Charles handcuff. Absolute must, and the previous 3 picks all were stressful for fear that someone would scoop him on me. I think he’s a great value here even without the handcuff, so unlike the other people who reached on handcuffs (Christine Michael anyone?) I nailed this.
Kicker, and a pretty good one. Glad a went a round early on it. Was really hoping for the Patriots defense here, but no such luck.
Didn’t like any of the defenses left so I figured I should pull one more keeper lottery pick. Frankly it’s a little bit of a shock he’s still here at this point, tough to argue he isn’t a steal and there’s no way he should have gone after Ertz.
For some reason I think the Panthers D will be very good this year. They are in a tough division so that’s a ding against them. Maybe I’m just over-rating their performance against the Bears in the preseason and the Keuchly hype. It’s a 16th rounder, if I have to stream them no big deal.
So, looking at the final construction of my team I’m pretty happy considering my iffy keepers coming in.
QB - Vick, Cutler
Certainly the weakest position on my team, but also the one with the least invested in it. This was by design, certainly it could have broken better for me but I like my upside. Gifted QBs with new, offense minded coaching staffs.
**RB - Charles, Murray, Williams, Ingram, Davis
**Very pleased with how this shook out. This is probably the best RB group that wasn’t keeper aided. Obviously I spent a lot on it, but I think it’s smartly constructed. If I could change anything I’d have pulled an extra RB lottery ticket instead of one of those WRs.
WR - Bowe, Garcon, Hopkins, Stills, Floyd
This played out well for my strategy. My strategy could be flawed of course, but I’m happy with how I got here. Ultimately it depends on how you feel about Garcon, if you think he’s a top 15 WR (I do) and you think he can stay on the field (I’m not sure) then this is a great pair.
TE - Olsen, Eifert
Another weak position, but one that’s weak by design. Lots riding on Olsen being good, but if he’s not I think there’ll be plenty on the waiver wire to sustain me.
K - Prater
Check plus.
**DEF - Carolina **
Check minus.
Potential Keepers: Ingram, Hopkins, Stills, Davis, Eifert
Awesome list I think, each of these guys should do something this year with elite upside, far better than rolling the dice on injured keepers. I might also toss Vick and Cutler into this list on the off chance those offenses end up being somehow revolutionary.
Nice job.
Cobb and Amendola as keepers gave you a lot of lattitude up front. Much like senorbeef, though, you paid a price for avoiding RB’s in the early rounds. But instead of reaching for risk/reward at RB2, you went steady, unexciting, and reliable. That was teh right call. You have plenty of upside elsewhere. You needed steady, and the Law Firm is steady in Cincy.
Behind that you also went ambulance chasing in Michael and Jackson. I don’t get the Michael love this year, and neither he nor Jackson will see significant playing time unless the starter goes down. What redeems this group is Andre Brown. Very nice pick at 14. I am not a David Wilson fan. One explosive run in preseason doesn’t erase fumbling and blocking deficiencies or provide toughness for the goal line carries. Andre Brown will be a nice emergency sub by week 6 if you need him.
Stafford is a stud QB. I don’t like Rivers in round 11. I think he is done and after taking Stafford in 3 you should have been thinking 1 weeker with keeper upside to back him up. Rivers is no longer that.
Gronk will be a beast when he returns. If you can make it to week 4 with a .500 record you should be a force once he and Brown are healthy.
Keeper value - Cobb and Amendola should repeat. Maclin in Round 15 as a shrewd steal. I lost track of him (as I’m sure did many others.) Kudos to you for sneaking him inn at the end. With your top 3, you have the luxury of stashing him all year. One of your RB ambulances could also hit - but I expect it will probably be 3WR for you next year.