I don’t think it was a canard at USC. He had a half dozen blue chip recruits fighting for each starting spot, and presumably some of them were actually eligible under NCAA rules. 
My team is so screwed. Grant out for the year, Bush out for 6 weeks now.
That really does suck. Having Dame Fortunana cause you to lose one starter for the entire year in week one sucks. Losing his fill in/flex guy for 6 weeks is just plain mean. Tough breaks, man.
Well, I didn’t have time to get all the previews finished before Week 1 (the Thursday game makes that a challenge) and last week was a bit of a Staycation for me and the lady friend. Women always get in the way, no? Still, I feel like I short changed you guys and I figure I’ll do my best to get them finished. I’m going to try and analyze the drafts with a “preseason” eye but it’s practically impossible to pretend that weeks 1 and 2 didn’t bias me. As a result I may be a bit brief in these last few and I might have some opinions that are contradicted by recent facts. We’ll see how it goes, this might be a total waste of time, but what the hell.
Moridwon (Hamlet)
1 (10) Andre Johnson
2 (19) Larry Fitzgerald
3 (38) Beanie Wells - Keeper
4 (47) Justin Forsett
5 (66) Joe Flacco
6 (75) Kevin Kolb
7 (94) Tim Hightower
8 (103) Vincent Jackson
9 (122) Chris Cooley
10 (131) Darren McFadden
11 (150) John Carlson
12 (159) Marshawn Lynch
13 (178) Kareem Huggins
14 (187) New Orleans
15 (206) Louis Murphy
16 (215) Neil Rackers
QB - Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb
Deep deep trouble at this position. We all know how things played out but prior to the start of the season I was down on the Ravens offense and Flacco moreso than most. I highlighted the fact that the Ravens had a bunch of slow possession receivers and that Ray Rice had the potential for a Forte-like Sophomore slump. Obviously Flacco’s Week 2 game makes that prediction a bit convenient but I would never have wanted Flacco as my #1 option, I had him ranked well into the mid-teens.
Kolb as a back-to-back QB pick obviously illustrates a hedge and uncertainty in Flacco. Presumably playing matchups was the idea here. Not a bad idea but spending a 5th and 6th pick to accomplish that is hella expensive! Yikes. Like Flacco, Kolb was a guy that I was the voice of dissension (reason?) on. People in fantasy widely assumed that he’d pick up right where McNabb left off an that the Reid magic was unstoppable. I have mentioned previously that Kolb is essentially an unproven rookie and that the loss of Westbrook can’t be dismissed away. Injury wasn’t something I’d really expected but in retrospect the Eagles line is not exactly fantastic. Now that Vick is coming on that pick is even scarier, though I’m not sure many of us would have predicted that.
RB - Beanie Wells, Justin Forsett, Tim Hightower, Darren McFadden, Marshawn Lynch, Kareem Huggins
I really dislike the Wells keeper in the 3rd round. I know most people had him as a breakout candidate and in this league he’s probably a late second round value, but I think that value is way over rated. He’s a guy that’s always had injury issues and couldn’t rest away all the carries from Hightower last season so the apparent nationwide assumption that he will this year baffled me. Obviously that offense was always going to struggle without Warner and when DA was named starter it meant that all Cardinals players became off-limits for me. Forsett as a 3rd RB is probably an excellent choice and in the 4th round I agree with the value but like Wells he’s not assured the lions share of the work making him a very suspect RB2. He could break out and be a stud but he could be a complete bust.
Taking Hightower to pair with Wells was very savvy, it was one of the few mandatory handcuffs I saw in the league this year. In the 7th round he’s actually a steal too. There are a lot of RB situations where I’d rather spend a little on the 2nd RB than a lot on the top guy, in AZ I always targeted Hightower because he was undervalued across the board. BUT, as your 3rd RB there’s no way you can afford to have 2 Cardinal RBs playing so he’s out as a flex. Drafting 2 WRs at the start of the draft largely made that choice for you in advance anyways, but it’s worth noting here. McFadden is a excellent value and with the Bush injury more serious than originally thought he’s getting a bunch of work. Before the season I’d have probably said I like the potential and the value but that when Bush was back Run DMC would disappear as a bust, but after seeing his start to the season he might just finally be putting it together.
I also like the Lynch and Huggins pick a lot. Both guys were in my queue and were sleeper/ambulance chasers that I wanted to get. By spending so much on RB I think that you agreed with my assessment of your starters and you did a good job of finding upside guys. Lynch is a talented guy and it’s starting to look more and more like he’ll be traded away at some point this season. If he lands in Green Bay or St. Louis he might actually be a fantasy star. Huggins thus far has been a nothing but Tampa has looked good. Cadillac has never been able to stay healthy and I still think that Huggins will be the guy that emerges if he misses any time.
WR - Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Louis Murphy
I think you got an absolute steal in Johnson where you got him. I had him in the top 6 of players and at 10 you struck gold based on some reaches. He’s great and the first 2 weeks have not contradicted that, the fact that Houston looks like a breakout team this year only makes it sweeter. Fitzy was also probably a great value where you got him but as a Cardinal he was on my “not with a 10 foot pole” list. With either Leinart or Anderson the guy was in deep trouble and the way the Cards have played I think that I may not have been harsh enough on them in the preseason. Still, he’s a stud who might find a way at some point this year.
I love Vincent Jackson in the 8th round but I hate him as your 3rd option. Much like my team you’re sorta stuck without a real Flex player. That RB/QB clusterfuck hurt your WR situation a lot but after going WR/WR to start the draft I see how you went away from it. It will be interesting to see if a trade occurs, in the preseason I was predicting that he’d have been traded before this point but there’s a decent chance that there could be positive news for you tomorrow. If not, you’re probably screwed. Still, as a keeper Jackson might be a awesome get if you can survive until week 6 without him. All in all, he’s the key to your team. If he comes back and/or gets traded and picks up where he left off you’re LOADED at WR and could win weeks on their back alone AND have a great keeper for next year. If he misses the whole season and gets rusty before next season you might be screwed. Louis Murphy was an awesome late WR pick but considering the questions about VJax you simply had to get another WR somewhere along the line. You’re walking a tightrope here.
TE - Chris Cooley, John Carlson
I’ve never been a Cooley believer. He had proved me wrong before his injury and now the question is how will he come back with a new QB. He looks good over 2 games but unless he really does something special my initial impression that that 9th round pick is too much considering the depth at the position will stand. In many ways the TE position this year is like Defense. We don’t know which ones will be great and there’s a whole bunch that will be grouped in the middle with little gap between them. Cooley is in that middle group and you drafted him at the front of it. But, I’ve been wrong about Cooley for pretty much his whole career, but I’m pretty sure he won’t be 6 round better than Olsen. As for Carlson, that’s a wasted pick on many levels.
DEF - New Orleans
You got one. I like New Orleans but I suspect you’ll be playing defense roulette once the bye weeks start.
**K - Neil Rackers **
Love the Houston offense, one of the best ones available in the last round. Kudos.
This team has a bit of potential and it got a bunch of flawed players at discounts throughout the draft. However, the fact remains that it has a lot of flawed players. The WRs need to be a strength of this team and unless a reliable RB2 emerges that might not be enough to carry him. WR is perhaps the most important position in the game this season and only having 3 who are available for the immediate future is a major issue, especially when that sacrifice didn’t lead to an ironclad QB or RB situation.
Grade: C-
Forgot keeper possibilities for Hamlet: Kevin Kolb, Darren McFadden, Marshawn Lynch, Kareem Huggins, Vincent Jackson
Baltimore Weirdos - Weirddave
1 (11) Shonn Greene
2 (27) Ray Rice - Keeper
3 (39) Felix Jones
4 (55) Matt Schaub - Keeper
5 (67) Tony Gonzalez
6 (74) T.J. Houshmandzadeh
7 (95) Kenny Britt
8 (102) Peyton Hillis
9 (123) Miles Austin - Keeper
10 (130) Mohamed Massaquoi
11 (151) Alex Smith
12 (158) Philadelphia
13 (179) Arrelious Benn
14 (186) Nate Kaeding
15 (207) Rob Bironas
16 (214) Chaz Schilens
QB - Matt Schaub, Alex Smith
Schaub is a super keeper and I have him a bit higher on my board than some. I think he fits into that second tier with Brady and Manning and leaves the next tier of guys well behind and I like him far more than the Romo’s, Favre’s and Rivers’ of the world. As a full fledged support of the Jacoby Jones bandwagon it only makes Schaub that much juicier.
Alex Smith keeps getting pimped as the sleeper QB candidate of the league and supposedly this San Fran offense is gonna explode. I was wondering if these people had seen him play before or not prior to the start of the season, but I was ironically high on him as a late, late back up option. He’s been a mixed bag through the first 2 weeks of the season but he’s probably the perfect pairing with a guy like Schaub. Spending so much on a stud QB you are essentially banking your season on him. If he goes down you’re probably screwed so why waste picks looking for top tier backups when you could be building out the supporting cast. Smith will never be a matchup play but he could be good enough to win a game or two on bye weeks and for brief injuries. Plus you didn’t have to spend more than a 11th rounder on him, and I bet you’d have been able to get him a round or two later. And hey, if those crazy people saying he’s going to finally blossom are right, hell you might have a keeper option.
RB - Shonn Greene, Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Peyton Hillis
I like Shonn Greene a bunch, I scooped him up last year before Jones injury, he helped me into the Championship game. Behind that line he should have plenty of ability to run wild, but this universal support for him that has driven him into the 1st round is a little too much. He’s never played a full season and the Jets didn’t add LDT to have him cheering on the sidelines. Getting him at 11 may actually be a good value based on how high some others have had him rated but lets not go overboard and start pretending he’s Adrian Peterson just yet. Ray Rice is a stellar keeper and while there’s a possibility of him having a Forte-like slump this year and wear and tear and injuries slowing him down you can’t begrudge the potential that he represents if people are even remotely close about the Ravens upside this season. The buzz has gone too far for my liking but that doesn’t mean they are a dog either.
Felix Jones is another of my “not with a 10 foot pole” guys. The Dallas running game is something I want no part of whatsoever and with so much uncertainty about playing time none of these guys deserve a 3rd round pick. If I’m going RB/RB/RB I damn well better be playing that 3rd guy as my Flex every week and I don’t think you can say that about Jones. Hillis is a nothing and in the 8th round it’s crazy talk. Cleveland’s running game sucks and he was probably 4th on the depth chart when you drafted him. I don’t understand that pick at all. McGahee would have made a heck of a lot more sense as a vulture/handcuff.
**WR - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Kenny Britt, Miles Austin, Mohamed Massaquoi, Arrelious Benn, Chaz Schilens **
If not for that epic Miles Austin keeper pick this would be an unmitigated disaster. I love the Austin pick, I had him as the 3rd best WR and a near 1st rounder on my board and he’s going to be a horse for you. You’ll need him to be because the rest of this group is hot garbage. Housh was released for a reason and added to the Ravens to be their 3rd receiver at best. Considering the hype about them I can defend drafting him but not as a starter, which is what you need from a 6th rounder. There were still #1 WRs on the board at that point. I just don’t see Housh being a worthwhile starter for you any week this season, and his ceiling is maybe 60 yards and a TD. Britt is on the outs in Tennessee and while I think the guy is crazy talented his attitude and friction with the coaching staff combined with the Vince Young situation makes him a waste of a pick. You never know when he’s going to burn a bridge and cost himself a start and/or find himself out of a weeks gameplan. Let’s not forget, Vince Young sucks.
Massaquoi is a nice late pickup and he’s got the potential to be a nice keeper, but this season he is going to be a dud. The Cleveland QB situation is a mess and there’s little to no sun on the horizon there. They don’t have a rookie in waiting or really anyone who has potential to exploit Massaquoi’s downfield skills. Next year however he might be a steal. Benn looked excellent in the preseason and I thought he’d have a nice rookie season but thus far he hasn’t even made it onto the field at all. Perhaps there’s only room for one rookie WR in Tampa. I think Chillens will be outplayed by Murphy and Heyward-Bey and with a shaky QB situation I don’t see a 3rd Oakland WR having value.
TE - Tony Gonzalez
Gonzo was one of my stay-away guys too. He’s just getting too old and the risk of him falling off a cliff is too real to spend what you need to get him considering how deep the TE position is. The first couple games of the season seem to prove that logic and I don’t see that changing. Dropping your 5th round pick is going to sting.
DEF - Philadelphia
Philly isn’t the Philly defense of old and the 12th round is too early. By mid season you’ll be shuffling defenses with the bye week matchups. Philly has a solid schedule to boot making them less valuable than average.
K - Rob Bironas
Kicker, 15th round, has a deep leg. Solid option.
All in all I think this team has a ton of potential based on the superior keepers. Rice, Schaub and Austin make for a QB/RB/WR combo that can compete with any and might be the best. However that was the fruits of last years draft, this years doesn’t look nearly as peachy. Finding a flex will be a challenge and issues at TE and depth at RB are dire.
Potential Keepers: Miles Austin, Mohamed Massaquoi
Grade: C-
We have a new feature this season: GM/Coach rankings. The GM column lists the maximum points you could have scored if you put all your top-scorers in your starting lineup. The Coach grade is a percentage of how many points you actually did score compared to how many you could have.
Your max potential score is really a rating of how well you draft, trade and manage the waiver wire/free agent pool. The points are listed as average/week instead of total for season.
He Hate Me - Week 1
…General…Head
Team…Manager…Coach
Off Constantly…153.20…100% A+…
New York Fanboys…140.80…97% A+…
Omni’s Omnipotents…114.70…78% C+…
Fightin’ Quakers…110.63…85% B…
Crabby Hermits…109.50…89% B+…
9 Inch Neils (RNATB)…98.44…94% A…
Varlos’ Zzzzzzz…85.17…89% B+…
Moridwon (Hamlet)…85.04…97% A…
Fourth & Nineteen…82.77…82% B-…
Spiritus Mundane…80.60…88% B+…
Baltimore Weirdos…80.07…79% C+…
RGrant’sFragileAnkle…79.53…94% A…
Quentin’s JAMmers…75.80…72% C-…
RealCarmenOfGenius…70.70…89% B+…
EDIT: I actually have to iron out a few kinks in the utility I wrote to calculate this info before I can gather the week 2 data.
Cool data, Ellis!
I predict I will finish in the top three in GM rankings and dead last in coach rankings.
ETA: I’m also looking to package Brandon Marshall and Cadillac for a stud (top 10) RB and scrubby wideout.
Remember that these numbers are weekly averages through the current week.
He Hate Me - Week 2
…General…Head
Team…Manager…Coach
Ellis Dee…138.40…97% A+…
Munch…135.82…92% A-…
furt…115.29…88% B+…
The Mad Hermit…109.47…83% B…
Spiritus Mundi…104.87…85% B…
Hamlet…102.19…94% A…
Wilson…101.62…91% A-…
Omniscient…99.97…83% B-…
RNATB…99.71…85% B…
VarlosZ…99.49…77% C+…
Jules Andre…96.15…80% B-…
Weirddave…88.42…82% B-…
Bababooey…82.95…91% A-…
Nurse Carmen…73.60…86% B…
New version now shows current week and season averages separately.
He Hate Me - Week 2
…General…Head…Season…General…Head
Week 2…Manager…Coach…Average…Manager…Coach
----------------------------------…----------------------------------
Ellis Dee…136.00…97% A+…Ellis Dee…138.40…97% A+
Spiritus Mundi…129.13…83% B…Munch…135.82…92% A-
Wilson…120.47…98% A+…furt…115.29…88% B+
furt…119.94…91% A-…The Mad Hermit…109.47…83% B
Hamlet…119.33…92% A-…Spiritus Mundi…104.87…85% B
Munch…118.43…82% B-…Hamlet…102.19…94% A
Jules Andre…116.50…85% B…Wilson…101.62…91% A-
VarlosZ…113.80…68% D+…Omniscient…99.97…83% B-
The Mad Hermit…109.44…77% C…RNATB…99.71…85% B
RNATB…100.97…76% C…VarlosZ…99.49…77% C+
Weirddave…96.77…84% B…Jules Andre…96.15…80% B-
Bababooey…86.37…89% B+…Weirddave…88.42…82% B-
Omniscient…85.23…89% B+…Bababooey…82.95…91% A-
Nurse Carmen…76.50…84% B…Nurse Carmen…73.60…86% B
Nice data, Ellis. But no way are you tricking me into starting Freeman over Romo this week.
This is really interesting, and will be even more so as we get deeper in the season. Thanks for doing it.
Do you have to enter the data manually, or is there a script? IOW … how much work would it be to go back and do last season?
The work involved is as minimal as it can be. I open up each manager’s roster for the week and copy & paste it to my utility. All four leagues I’m in total 48 players, so that’s 48 C&P operations. Takes around 5-10 minutes for an entire week. All the calculations and formatting are automatic, as is probably obvious.
I can’t capture previous seasons because the weekly roster info is gone; they only keep the draft results and final rosters.
He Hate Me - Week 3
…General…Head…Season…General…Head
Week 3…Manager…Coach…Average…Manager…Coach
----------------------------------…----------------------------------
Munch…142.87…89% B+…Munch…138.17…91% A-
Spiritus Mundi…139.43…85% B…Ellis Dee…131.04…92% A-
furt…137.04…76% C…furt…122.54…84% B
Weirddave…133.80…58% F…Spiritus Mundi…116.39…85% B
Ellis Dee…116.33…78% C+…The Mad Hermit…108.95…89% B+
Omniscient…109.77…82% B-…Wilson…103.81…83% B-
Wilson…108.20…67% D+…Weirddave…103.55…71% C-
The Mad Hermit…107.90…100% A+…Hamlet…103.50…91% A-
Bababooey…107.40…93% A…Omniscient…103.23…82% B-
Hamlet…106.13…84% B…RNATB…96.54…84% B
Nurse Carmen…103.60…73% C…VarlosZ…96.13…81% B-
RNATB…90.20…81% B-…Jules Andre…93.97…76% C
Jules Andre…89.60…67% D+…Bababooey…91.10…92% A-
VarlosZ…89.43…88% B+…Nurse Carmen…83.60…81% B-
I love fantasy football…
Barring a complete collapse from Chad Henne tonight, I am going to win this week with zero points from my 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th round picks (and half a point from my 8th).
Although admittedly, I should have had points from my 1st (Steven Jackson), but I thought he would be out and wasn’t by a computer to switch him in before the early games.
Thank you TO and the San Diego defense!
I need 20 points from Brandon Marshall and Ronnie Brown. I’ll probably get 19.5.
I went into last night’s game needing 8 points from Cutler and Welker. Now I need 14.4 from Welker…
Turns out I still had Aaron Hernandez, too… and the three combined for 13.4 points. :mad: My only consolation is that at 1-3 I won’t be dead last, thanks to NurseCarmen****.
Drafting Brandon Tate is starting to look fantastic right about now.
He Hate Me - Week 4
…General…Head…Season…General…Head
Week 4…Manager…Coach…Average…Manager…Coach
----------------------------------…----------------------------------
Wilson…124.57…88% B+…Munch…134.14…86% B
Ellis Dee…123.46…80% C+…Ellis Dee…129.15…89% B+
Munch…122.07…69% D+…furt…120.98…85% B
furt…116.31…89% B+…Wilson…109.00…84% B
VarlosZ…110.03…98% A+…Spiritus Mundi…107.03…85% B
Omniscient…105.43…88% B+…Omniscient…103.78…84% B
Weirddave…94.40…98% A+…Weirddave…101.26…78% C+
RNATB…89.67…70% C-…VarlosZ…99.61…85% B
Bababooey…87.97…86% B…The Mad Hermit…99.56…90% B+
Jules Andre…85.37…84% B…RNATB…94.82…80% B-
Spiritus Mundi…78.94…88% B+…Hamlet…94.77…92% A-
The Mad Hermit…71.40…95% A…Jules Andre…91.82…78% C+
Hamlet…68.57…100% A+…Bababooey…90.32…91% A-
Nurse Carmen…68.00…77% C…Nurse Carmen…79.70…80% B-