Sorry 'bout that. Friday ended up being a little bit of a shit show at work and then the wife demanded a anniversary dinner last night. It was kinda making me anxious as I laid in bed last night knowing I wasn’t gonna finish. We’ll see what I can get through tonight…though with most of a weeks worth of games under our belt the context changes.
As a footnote, I watched the Bears-Lions, Bucs-Saints, Rams-Pokes and Chiefs-Texans games this week. Otherwise I haven’t dug in on the stats/timeshares for most of the results from week 1. If I say something that is rendered moot by a week 1 injury or breakout that’s why. Consider it a feature not a bug.
Fourth & Nineteen
- (7) Dalvin Cook (Min - RB)
- (22) DeAndre Hopkins (Ari - WR)
- (35) Raheem Mostert (SF - RB)
- (50) Deshaun Watson (Hou - QB)
- (63) Leonard Fournette (TB - RB)
- (78) Marvin Jones Jr. (Det - WR)
- (91) Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
- (106) Kerryon Johnson (Det - RB)
- (119) Jerry Jeudy (Den - WR)
- (134) Noah Fant (Den - TE)
- (147) Baker Mayfield (Cle - QB)
- (162) Brian Hill (Atl - RB)
- (175) Tua Tagovailoa (Mia - QB)
- (190) Washington (Was - DEF)
- (203) Zane Gonzalez (Ari - K)
- (218) O.J. Howard (TB - TE)
QB: Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa
Heavily invested in the QB position…we’ll sew how much that hurts the other positions in a second. Watson is about as solid a fantasy QB as there is, though I have to question what this passing game looks like without Hopkins as a security blanket. I also will always be suspect of Watson’s health but that’s admittedly a bit of a bias that’s probably not entirely rational. Considering how many QBs went early this value is pretty solid. As far and Baker and Tua go…not a fan at all. First, drafting them both makes little sense to me. You either shoot for a keeper in Tua or you shoot for a backup with upside in Baker, taking both is a bad investment of resources. It doesn’t help that I think Baker’s official a bust and I don’t think Tua’s game will translate to the NFL at all.
RB: Dalvin Cook, Raheem Mostert, Leonard Fournette, Kerryon Johnson, Brian Hill
I think you’re kind screwed here. Cook is a stud…and I hope he’s a beast because he’s my guy in my $$$ IRL FFL…so I like that pick a lot. I think most people would say getting him at 7 is a bit of a steal too, doubly so in a keeper league. But, he’s scary without having his handcuff. If I were you I’d be shopping hard, and paying a premium if needed, to trade for Mattison. Mostert is interesting, he helped me out last year as a waiver wire claim but the lack of pedigree scares me…as does the whole Shanahan RB thing. Who’d have thought we’d be in the second generation of the Shanahan RB curse? Fournette and Johnson looked like really, really good backups coming out of the draft but the last week has been brutal for this team. After week one, it’s not looking good for either guy’s touches. Is Hill the handcuff the next man up in ATL? Who knows.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Marvin Jones Jr, Deebo Samuel, Jerry Jeudy
So this looks like the spot that took it on the chin due to that investment in QBs. Rolling with 4 WRs is less of a gamble than RBs, but still can end up with a dicey situation. I don’t hate it, you’ll be able to find points on the waiver wire. Hopkins is a beast, but again…a new system, a new QB, all in the COVID era makes this less of a slam dunk than a few of the other elite guys. We’ll see what happens with Kyler. Jones is a sneaky great selection there and this is actually a higher than his ADP, guess HHM is a bit more clued in than the average FFL. but it has to be said he’s not the WR1 on his own team and he’s got to start for you, which isn’t generally what you want. Deebo had a monster year and I also have him in my $$$ league so I’m hoping that this IR stint is a short one. Whatever the case you’re in a deep hole until he comes back. We’ve talked a lot about rookies and while Jeudy is in a great situation with Sutton dinged up, I’m not sure I’d want to stake my season on him and with your short bench you kinda are.
TE: Noah Fant, OJ Howard
Pretty low investment here and I like that strategy. OJ Howard in the 16th is an insane value, with Brady throwing to him you have to bet he’s getting lots of touches. And there’s zero chance that Gronk dominates the playing time there, he’s washed. Honestly I like Howard over Fant, who is a solid mid-range TE. Good tactics and a good result.
DEF/K: Washington, Zane Gonzalez
You got one of each. Nice work.
Potential Keepers: Howard, Tua, Jeudy
Really nice options here. Just talked up Howard and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t end up being worth a 14th next year. Tua I don’t like, but if he’s Kyler/Deshaun 2.0 this will be very valuable. Rookie WRs are always a gamble, but Jeudy has as good a chance as any at being this year’s Brown/Chark/Metcalf.
Prediction: You’ve got a ton riding on 2 players, Hopkins and Cook. Lots of teams will be in a similar position but because of your roster construction I think you’re at risk of a bigger fall than most if they get hurt or fall off a cliff. And in Cook’s case history says he might. But if everyone’s healthy you are a contender. Best case 10-3, worst case 5-8.
Omnipotents
- (8) Michael Thomas (NO - WR)
- (21) Melvin Gordon III (Den - RB)
- (36) David Johnson (Hou - RB)
- (49) Tyler Higbee (LAR - TE)
- (64) A.J. Green (Cin - WR)
- (77) Marlon Mack (Ind - RB)
- (92) Dak Prescott (Dal - QB) Keeper
- (105) Justin Jackson (LAC - RB)
- (120) DJ Moore (Car - WR) Keeper
- (133) Joshua Kelley (LAC - RB)
- (148) Parris Campbell (Ind - WR)
- (161) Sammy Watkins (KC - WR)
- (176) Malcolm Brown (LAR - RB)
- (189) Los Angeles (LAR - DEF)
- (204) Drew Lock (Den - QB)
- (217) Brandon McManus (Den - K)
QB: Dak Prescott, Drew Lock
Time to let you behind the curtain, ignore the man pulling the strings. Dak as a keeper was a luxury that basically allowed me to ignore the position in my strategy. Some people have been predicting Dak as the #1 fantasy QB this year because the Cowboys offense looks kinda loaded. I’m a little less bullish but I feel real solid at the position. Dak definitely is a high floor guy and that’s usually what I look for in a QB. Grabbing Lock at the end is a lottery ticket, and I think there’s a better than 50-50 chance that he’s a big garbage points guy this season. He’s got the keys and I like his weapons, I’m less sold on his OC but this pick was all about next year.
RB: Melvin Gordon III, David Johnson, Marlon Mack, Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, Malcolm Brown
I hate this group. This season in all my leagues I had made up my mind to go RB-RB and unfortunately I was picking at the wrong fucking spot. I had outside hopes of grabbing CEH here but that didn’t pan out. So I did the next best thing, instead of reaching for a guy in the first I just drafted a million guys who have a chance to be a workhorse. Gordon and Johnson are basically the same guy at this point. Each has a chance at being a top-5 point getter in the league, but each is on a new team, getting up in years and constantly dealing with injuries. I’m going to be rubbing my rabbits feet and hoping they both get hooked up to the juvenation machine. The Week 1 results from DJ look really promising. We’ll see about Gordon tomorrow. Mack was a really good grab where I got him because I have a hunch that the rookie will struggle in pass pro and Mack will be productive enough to return solid flex numbers with Rivers running the offense. But unfortunately he looks to be seriously injured in week 1, so we’ll see. The rest of the guys I guess are the Hard Knocks hype group…kinda surprised they all lasted this long. I locked up the between the tackles guys in San Diego. With Ekler they probably will never be better than a flex, but if he goes down one of these guys will get big volume. Jackson is the one I believe in but he got hurt today too. Brown is the starter in Englewood…I’m SHOCKED he lasted that long and he definably got the large majority of the work. He might end up being a league winning pick if he’s Gurley-light.
WR: Michael Thomas, AJ Green, DJ Moore, Parris Campbell, Sammy Watkins
I constantly felt like I was in a gaping chasm when my pick was up. It was one of those drafts that seemed to break against me every pick. Thomas is a guy I’ve had a bunch of times, IIRC I had him as a rookie and kept him up to the max year in this league, and he’s pretty much a sure thing. He won’t hurt me but I just hated taking the first WR in the draft. That’s never the guy I want to be. AJ Green was a little bit of a panic pick…there just was nothing left on the board I liked there and I figure there’s at least a chance he puts up top-20 WR numbers if he’s at 100%. DJ was a keeper and while I HATE the Panthers offense this year with Bridgewater at the helm, I do think Moore is the guy that’s going to get a ton of catches if not a lot of TDs. Campbell is a bet against TY Hilton’s health. I think with Rivers there Campbell might end up being a 100 catch guy and Rivers always seemed to have an affinity for tall guys. Watkins is one of my least favorite players but at this point in the draft he’s a fucking steal…and week 1 makes it look like he might be starting for me going forward. Now that I’m able to take a step back I hate this group a lot less than I did leaving the draft.
TE: Tyler Higbee
Two things about this. 1) Higbee was right in that part of the draft where I felt like I was totally lost. I hated all the RBs and WRs available in rounds 4-5 and I think a lot of people felt the same way considering the number of QBs and TEs drafted. So Higbee was a partial panic pick. I’m not totally convinced he’ll do anything close to what he did last season but if he does, that’s a solid value. 2) Because I ended up betting on Higbee, under duress but still, I chose not to take another TE. The position is deep, if Higbee is a bust I’ll find something on the waiver wire.
DEF/K: Los Angeles Rams, Brandon McManus
You got one of each. Nice work…wait a minute…
Potential Keepers: Brown, Watkins, Campbell, Kelley, Lock
One of the side effects of not loving my draft as it was happening was that it allowed me to prioritize keepers a bit. I think I accidentally did so without really sacrificing the present. Lock has a good chance of being a high-end backup next year with a small chance of being a fantasy star. Brown might lock up the workhorse role in LA if Akers isn’t the guy, Kelley is a longer shot due to Ekler but we’ll see. Watkins and Campbell both feel like excellent candidates. Very happy with this situation.
Prediction: It’s a little weird to predict my own outcome, I could cop out and say Best case 13-0, worst case 0-13. But honestly, I don’t love this squad. Other than Thomas, I just don’t have a lead-pipe lock week-to-week star. Even Thomas is a definite regression candidate. I think I have enough depth to stay relevant even if those RBs end up in the training room all year but I’ll need Dak to put up Mahomes-like numbers to give me a chance at the title. I don’t see it. Best case 9-4, worst case 7-6.
The Quack Attack
- (9) Aaron Jones (GB - RB)
- (20) Mike Evans (TB - WR)
- (37) Stefon Diggs (Buf - WR)
- (48) Ronald Jones II (TB - RB)
- (65) DeVante Parker (Mia - WR)
- (76) Hunter Henry (LAC - TE)
- (93) Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB)
- (104) Emmanuel Sanders (NO - WR)
- (121) Ryan Tannehill (Ten - QB)
- (132) Mike Gesicki (Mia - TE)
- (149) Buffalo (Buf - DEF)
- (160) Taysom Hill (NO - QB)
- (177) Mason Crosby (GB - K)
- (188) Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB - RB)
- (205) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB - WR)
- (216) Eric Ebron (Pit - TE)
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Taysom Hill
This group is a really really nice one. The shine is definitely off of Rodgers this year and I understand why, but he’s super undervalued. I grabbed him in my $$$ league really late as well, I think I may have been the last or second to last guy to pick a QB. He’s going to dramatically over-perform that draft position baring injury. Week 1 was a really good test case there. Tannehill is a super high-end back up just in case those Rodgers dings and nicks add up again. Yes, there’s a MASSIVE regression risk with Tanne but as an insurance policy he’s a gem. Only criticism is that Rodgers is probably reliable enough that you could have waited longer for a backup like Minshew. Hill is a wasted pick. He’s only got QB eligibility and even if he were to become a full time QB in Brees absence he don’t be worth keeping.
RB: Aaron Jones, Ronald Jones II, Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Oh my god. What a disaster. Jones is a hugely frustrating back to own because while he can have 2 TD weeks, he also can have 2 point weeks. I drafted right in front of you and I simply wasn’t taking Jones in the 1st…he’s not close to worth it. But, sometimes you deal with what comes…and that means contingencies. You clearly do not believe in contingencies. RJ2 wasn’t close to a lock as a 3 down back even before the additions of McCoy and Fournette and while his week 1 results are promising, that all could change in a hurry. You double down on the fragmented Bucs backfield with the rookie…a guy that was interesting in Dynasty but less so here. You’re going to be in deep deep trouble at the RB position pretty might right out of the gates and there’s not even a passing hope for a flex start from this group.
WR: Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, DeVante Parker, Emmanuel Sanders, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
One of my general approaches in fantasy is to isolate a handful of offenses that I want no part of whatsoever and a handful that I really, really like. I don’t go so far as to stack offenses, but my opinions of players depend highly on my opinion of the overall squad. In some cases this causes me to undervalue superstars but it also helps me minimize incredibly frustrating week to week performances. I bring this up because you kind of did both here. I’m all in on the Bucs and Saints’ passing games and I’m all out on the Bills and Dolphins. Evans had a bad week 1 but that won’t become a trend. Sanders could be a total steal there opposite Thomas and Valdes-Scantling is an INSANE value this late. But in spite of how talented Diggs is, I would not be betting on Josh Allen’s arm in Buffalo from cold weather and god know what’s going to happen in Miami. Parker has become one of the most frustrating players in all of fantasy. All in all, this is a really good group but it will have to be otherworldly to offset the issues at RB.
TE: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Eric Ebron
I think these are a couple very low end options. Henry was a guy that seemed poised for a big leap but I think the QB situation in LAC is going to hold him back a ton. I wouldn’t actually be that critical if you’d have waited a couple rounds here since there were a number of very similar guys left on the board here. TE is one of those positions where you can find waiver wire help if needed. Gesicki is a mystery, we’ll see if anything good comes out of Miami this season. I’m not sold on the hype…he wasn’t even listed as the starter on the Dolphins first depth chart, for what it’s worth. Some draftniks are pumping him up so maybe I’m just sleeping on Fitzmagic. Ebron is actually a super interesting late rounder, very disappointing in his time in Detroit/Indy, but Pittsburgh TEs tend to produce consistently. It would have been interesting if you’d have gone all-in on Gesicki/Ebron and used that sixth on another RB.
DEF/K: Buffalo, Mason Crosby
You got one of each. Can’t say nice work because holy cow you broke the bank for them.
Potential Keepers: Ebron, Valdes-Scantling, Vaughn
I’m giving it a 1 in 5 chance that Ebron blows up this year. Of course if Big Ben retires that won’t matter next year. Not sure why MVS was still on the board, he’s Rodgers #2, he’ll be worth a 13 next year. Vaughn will probably only be useful if the Bucs blow it up next year, but rookie RBs are rookie RBs.
Prediction: We started with so much potential but unless you completely retool the roster to fill those gaping holes at RB, I think this team is dead in the water. You have an extra QB and TE, so I suspect that Hill and Ebron might be wavier bait by week 2. QB and WR are solid but you could be fighting with one arm tied behind your back all season, never mind the bye weeks. Best case 6-7, worst case 1-12.
Oh definitely no need to apologize. I know you take a lot of time to write these up. I was just letting you know that I really appreciate your reviews (going for years now) and was hoping you wouldn’t kind of forget about it because the season was started. I appreciate you writing these up.
Spiritus Mundane
- (10) Joe Mixon (Cin - RB)
- (19) George Kittle (SF - TE)
- (38) Le’Veon Bell (NYJ - RB)
- (47) Kenny Golladay (Det - WR) Keeper
- (66) Devin Singletary (Buf - RB)
- (75) Julian Edelman (NE - WR)
- (94) Matthew Stafford (Det - QB)
- (103) Matt Breida (Mia - RB)
- (122) Brandon Aiyuk (SF - WR)
- (131) San Francisco (SF - DEF)
- (150) Daniel Jones (NYG - QB) Keeper
- (159) James Robinson (Jax - RB)
- (178) J.D. McKissic (Was - RB)
- (187) DJ Chark Jr. (Jax - WR) Keeper
- (206) Robbie Gould (SF - K)
- (215) Breshad Perriman (NYJ - WR)
QB: Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones
There’s some crazy. crazy Daniel Jones hype this offseason. It makes no logical sense to me. Sure, Jones may make the leap and become a winning QB in the Big Apple but he isn’t becoming a top-5 fantasy QB. Sorry, but there’s no chance. that said, he’s a interesting keeper. He may not return premium value if he only matches last years production but it’s worth a shot. Stafford should be your starter all season and while I don’t think he’s going to be a top-tier option either he’ll be productive enough to keep you in it. And waiting as long as you did on QB that’s a perfectly acceptable outcome. The QB position probably won’t win you any weeks, but it won’t lose you any either.
RB: Joe Mixon, Le’Veon Bell, Devin Singletary, Matt Breida, James Robinson, J.D. McKissic
Well, you definitely made a yeoman’s effort to slap together a reliable RB stable but this is going to be an insanely frustrating group. Mixon isn’t a reliable point getter under the best of circumstances but when you factor in the Burrow situation and the expectation that this team will be playing from behind a lot it’s especially rough. He did just get a big contract and he his the bell cow, so I suppose it could be worse. Bell is just torture on the Jets. He’ll get plenty of touches but that offense is so dismal it won’t amount to anything. He’ll be too productive to bench, but not nearly productive enough to outscore the guy on the other side of the matchup grid. He’s also declining physically so there’s little reason to think he’ll do better this year than last. The upside…his competition for playing time is Frank fucking Gore. Devin Singletary…more frustration. He’s basically in a 50-50 timeshare with a rookie and I expect that situation to last all season long, but the real brutal issue is Josh Allen. I already said that I am bearish on the Bill offense in general, but as far as Singletary goes, Allen always calls his own number in goalline situations really pushing down the TD potential. Breida was a occasional producer in San Fran under Shanny, but he’s in Miami now and that offense is gonna suck. But, I think he dominates the timeshare with Howard and let’s be honest, you basically got a starter in the 8th round. Hopefully you won’t rely on him but he will be a above average flex most weeks. I could give a very similar summary for Robinson, bad offense, but lots of touches for a low, low cost. McKissic is a wildcard but if Gibson falters he has as good a shot as any to soak up carries in Washington with Peterson gone. Week 1 it was Barber getting the goal line work, but I don’t expect anyone to dominate the touches there barring injury. Unfortunately it’s another terrible offense and I don’t see much keeper value in him.
WR: Kenny Golladay, Julian Edelman, Brandon Aiyuk, DJ Chark, Breshad Perriman
Really nicely done here. You locked up to amazing keepers last year and will be sitting pretty starting Golladay and Chark every week. This gave you the freedom to focus elsewhere in the draft, unfortunately your draft position meant you couldn’t really load up at RB the way you probably wanted. Still, a minimum of cost you have one of the best WR groups going. Good move to add Edelman as a WR3 and I think that’s a really nice value for him, but I had him on my do not draft list. I’m of the belief that he was Brady’s guy, with Cam under center he will fall off a cliff. Lots of smart people have him highlighted as a major sleeper though, so my thoughts could be a false narrative. Aiyuk is a really popular rookie but, honestly, I think drafting him at 9 is kind of insane. Too many people think this years rookie WRs will perform like last years but they forget that that was a massive outlier. Perriman is a nice late round pick and I’ve heard a few people project him as Robby Anderson this season. If that’s even 80% true that’s a steal.
TE: George Kittle
I’m a big fan of the approach here. You were loaded up at WR due to keepers and have the freedom to take a shot at a top tier at TE and Kittle is pretty excellent. I would have much rather had Kelce here but you didn’t have the fortune. And when you load up at TE like this I think the wise move is to go all in, if Kittle goes down you’re in trouble anyways. A backup should just sit on your bench all season so spend that on a RB or WR, which I think you did. Wise tactics and we’ll see if it pans out for you.
DEF/K: San Francisco, Robbie Gould
You got one of each. Nice work.
Potential Keepers: Chark again, Breida, Perriman, Robinson
This year will probably not be as productive as last, but there’s some options here. Chark should hold value and both Breida and Robinson could find themselves as the starter on a bad team after a strong campaign this year. The biggest issue is that all of these guys are probably gonna be on bad teams.
Prediction: I like the way this team is constructed but I think you had a lot of bad luck and maybe missed a few opportunities where guys slipped. My biggest worry is that you’re really loaded up on just a few team, San Fran, Jacksonville and to a lesser degree the Jets will dictate your entire season. None of those offense have the shape of a juggernaut. In the end I think you’ll come up short week after week simply because you just don’t have many guys liable to explode in a given week. Best case 8-5, worst case 6-7.
Exploding Pancakes
- (11) Josh Jacobs (LV - RB)
- (18) Miles Sanders (Phi - RB)
- (39) Allen Robinson II (Chi - WR)
- (46) Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)
- (67) David Montgomery (Chi - RB)
- (74) D’Andre Swift (Det - RB)
- (95) Jamison Crowder (NYJ - WR)
- (102) Austin Hooper (Cle - TE)
- (123) DK Metcalf (Sea - WR) Keeper
- (130) Mecole Hardman (KC - WR) Keeper
- (151) Chicago (Chi - DEF)
- (158) Jalen Reagor (Phi - WR)
- (179) Marquise Brown (Bal - WR) Keeper
- (186) Jack Doyle (Ind - TE)
- (207) Kirk Cousins (Min - QB)
- (214) Jake Elliott (Phi - K)
QB: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins
I think this brake close to perfectly for you. Wilson is perhaps the best value of all the top QBs this season and you nabbed him at just the right spot. Taking a QB this early always carries some risk but you have the keepers to buy you the margin to do it. I see no reason to believe that Wilson’s output changes in either direction and that puts you in a terrific spot. Cousins is a high-end, low cost backup. If you have to start him he won’t kill you and frankly in the 15th round that’s highway robbery. His unpopularity caused people to overlook his steady but unspectacular fantasy production.
RB: Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift
4 RBs in the first 6 picks., and then none. Yessir, I like it. Jacobs was clearly the best of the tier 3 RBs and the fact that the previous 2 drafters took the wrong guys helped you a ton. Jacobs is a horse and will be a TD machine. Sanders is a weird one, you can’t argue with his opportunity and he has the potential to be a breakout guy this year. Many mock drafts had him going around pick 9 or 10 so I’d say that’s a bit of a steal where you got him. Personally, I’m avoiding him simply because I think the Eagles offense is a candidate for a big regression. I’m not a Boston Scott fan either, so if I had to have an Eagles player Sanders is the one I’d want. David Montgomery is a massively frustrating guy to root for, but it’s almost totally not his fault. The runs hard as hell and has all the tools, but there’s just something wrong with the Bears run blocking and Montgomery suffers for it. That said, where you got him he’s a terrific value. There’s at least a decent chance that the Bears figure this out and he becomes a fantasy monster as a super-flex. Swift was looking like a terrific rookie lottery ticket until week 1. Between the addition of ADP and that god awful drop, his stock is at rock bottom right now. We’ll have to see if there’s a major hangover from it. Perhaps the only criticism I have here is that the keeper value is modest.
WR: Allen Robinson II, Jamison Crowder, DK Metcalf, Mecole Hardman, Jalen Reagor, Marquise Brown
This is an incredible group. You did amazing work with your keepers last year and it paid off. You used that advantage to put together one of the better RB groups and still managed to add even more talent to this group. This is how it’s done. AR12 is a stud and one of the few WRs that supersedes any concerns about the offense or the QB. He’ll be a stud I have no doubt. Crowder is the guy that I’m the least excited about, that Jets offense is a total stay away for me, but with Anderson gone he’s the clear WR1 on that team. Still, he may put up a handful of single digit weeks. It probably won’t matter because on the back of 3 super keepers he’s your WR5. Metcalf, Hardman and Brown are kind of insane as a group. Studs in 3 of the best offenses in football catching passes from the best QBs in football. I’m so fucking jealous. Earlier I criticized the over-investment in rookies, this result is the counterpoint. You rolled the dice last season and absolutely struck gold. Batted a 1.000…pick your metaphor. I mean, what else is there to say. How can I criticize this…um, maybe that Reagor pick would have been better spent on a rookie RB instead?
TE: Austin Hooper, Jack Doyle
In spite of the huge leg up you had you still waited on TE. It’s probably what I would have done too, I just think that position is loaded. However Hooper isn’t in Atlanta any more and I wouldn’t expect any of his 2019 results to project forward to 2020 in that pathetic Cleveland situation, Classic case of a guy cashing in at the expense of winning. Don’t blame him, but don’t like him in FFL. Doyle is just a guy, but you can’t ignore the possibility that Rivers turns him into a premium TE. Solid backup who may very well be your starter by week 4.
DEF/K: Chicago, Jake Elliott
You got one of each. Nice job.
Potential Keepers: Metcalf, Reagor, Hardman, Brown, Swift
I’ll honestly be surprised if you end up with a reason to change your keepers going into next season. The only chance is if Swift turns it around and become a 1st/2nd round worthy RB and I think that’s a unlikely outcome, I think the Lions signaled they doubt it too in acquiring Peterson.
Prediction: Championship favorite. No bones about it. Maybe you struggle to find a consistent RB2. Maybe the WRs experience a sophomore slump. Maybe a a comet strikes Seattle while they are playing the Eagles. Probably your biggest worry is getting smoked in the playoffs by an insane Mahomes or Jackson performance. Best case 12-1, worst case 9-4.
Nine Inch Neils
- (12) James Conner (Pit - RB)
- (17) Travis Kelce (KC - TE)
- (40) Kareem Hunt (Cle - RB)
- (45) Jordan Howard (Mia - RB)
- (68) Phillip Lindsay (Den - RB)
- (73) Will Fuller V (Hou - WR)
- (96) Chase Edmonds (Ari - RB)
- (101) Chris Godwin (TB - WR) Keeper
- (124) Darrel Williams (KC - RB)
- (129) Courtland Sutton (Den - WR) Keeper
- (152) Josh Allen (Buf - QB) Keeper
- (157) Justin Tucker (Bal - K)
- (180) Jimmy Garoppolo (SF - QB)
- (185) Van Jefferson Jr. (LAR - WR)
- (208) Tennessee (Ten - DEF)
- (213) Tre’Quan Smith (NO - WR)
QB: Josh Allen, Jimmy Garoppolo
I’ve shit talked the Bills and Allen a lot so far but I actually love this keeper. I think Allen will hold back the other players in the huddle but the guy is gonna run the ball and he’s going to score TDs with his legs. He’s basically Lamar-lite. Nabbing him with a keeper will be really valuable, the fact you’re drafting where you are proves the point. Jimmy is kind of a dud but where you picked him up is fine. He’s a backup, if he’s starting game for you at any point you’re screwed anyways. I think there were better guys on the board there but if you you’re buying in, you do you.
RB: James Connor, Kareen Hunt, Jordan Howard, Phillip Lindsay, Chase Edmonds, Darrel Williams
6 of your first 9 picks are RBs. You picked right next to Beef and had a similar strategy. Unfortunately I think your results are a fair bit worse. Connor is not a guy I believe in at all, I’m generally down on the Steelers offense on the whole, but i just have the sense that the Steelers don’t believe Connor can hold the starting job. Tonight he got dinged up and Snell stepped in a performed pretty well, opening that door is not a good outcome. I actually don’t believe in Snell either but I wouldn’t bet against this becoming a close to 50-50 time share and more critically the Steelers are a team that’s apt to throw 45 times a game this season. Hunt’s not going to out touch Chubb, because Chubb is a fucking beast, and that Cleveland offense can’t support 2 fantasy RBs. You’d have been way better off with Sanders here. I already predicted that Breida wins the larger portion of the carries in Miami which means that Howard gets the short end. I’ve seen Jordan Howard run, he bores OCs and isn’t nearly as reliable around the goalline as he should be. I drafted Gordon myself because I think he ends up being in a 80-20 split with Lindsay. I’m probably in the minority in that view, but it’s what I’m betting on which makes this pick a iffy one. Edmonds is a nice grab just in case Drake gets hurt, I really think he’s got a lot of talent, but he’s probably just an ambulance chaser at this point. It’s a shame you couldn’t handcuff the two. The Williams pick is a bet against CEH…and as a CEH owner I hope Williams doesn’t see the field. He’s another guy who’s probably nothing more than an ambulance chaser, he’s not a keeper candidate even if CEH gets hurt.
WR: Will Fuller V, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, Van Jefferson Jr. Tre’Quon Smith
Poor man’s Exploding Pancakes here. Some solid keepers but they are not spectacular. Godwin was a terrific player last year but the Brady situation puts him into a little doubt. I’m thinking Brady will adapt well but his risk higher than some other high-end WRs. Sutton is starting the season dinged up and his offense is a work in progress, Drew Lock is no Mahomes, Wilson or Lamar so the ceiling with Sutton is a lot lower. Nice season last year but felt like it had more to do with opportunity than with uncontainable talent. Fuller a boom or bust guy who tends to boom pretty often but the injury risk is a biggie. You took a couple shots for keepers in the late rounds and I really like that Smith pick in 16th but there’s a pretty solid chance that you’ll need these guys to produce early and often, which is a coin flip at best.
TE: Travis Kelce
Take everything I said about Spiritus’ TE draft and repeat it here. Kelce is the guy I want, I think he’s a couple big rungs better than Kittle, and you were smart to go all in there. But, unfortunately I think taking a TE in the 2nd really hurt you at the RB position. The strategy was right, but I’m not sold on the execution.
DEF/K: Tennessee, Justin Tucker
You got one of each. Nice work.
Potential Keepers: Smith, Allen, Jefferson, Sutton
I’m betting you keep Allen again, and Sutton will probably warrant it too. I love that Smith pick and while he doesn’t have a clear path to playing time with Thomas and Sanders in front of him, the Saints have often made 3 WRs productive in that offense…unless of course Brees turns into a pumpkin.
Prediction: Missed it by that much. You had all the opportunities to set yourself up as a title contender but ultimately I think you’re going to fall back to the middle of the pack even with those keepers. There just aren’t quite enough sure things on this roster at the RB and WR positions. Plus QB and TE, but week-to-week you might be pulling your hair out to pick the right 5 starters. Best case 10-3, worst case 8-7.
Carcosa Yellow Kings
- (13) Davante Adams (GB - WR)
- (16) Julio Jones (Atl - WR)
- (41) Cam Akers (LAR - RB)
- (44) Amari Cooper (Dal - WR)
- (69) Antonio Gibson (Was - RB)
- (72) Henry Ruggs III (LV - WR)
- (97) Boston Scott (Phi - RB)
- (100) Austin Ekeler (LAC - RB) Keeper
- (125) John Brown (Buf - WR)
- (128) Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)
- (153) Chris Thompson (Jax - RB)
- (156) Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB) Keeper
- (181) Darren Waller (LV - TE) Keeper
- (184) Nyheim Hines (Ind - RB)
- (209) Dwayne Haskins Jr. (Was - QB)
- (212) Younghoe Koo (Atl - K)
QB: Lamar Jackson, Dwayne Haskins Jr.
Lamar as a keeper in the 12th is insane. The rest of the league is going to be behind the 8-ball for the next 3 years as a result. I was a big Lamar doubter last year and I grabbed him to backup Mahomes in my IRL league, mostly thinking that with Mahomes I was so set I could gamble big. I ended up struggling to decide who to start most weeks and I actually rolled with Lamar more than Mahomes. This year I see very little reason to expect a regression. Maybe the league figures out that Ravens offense, maybe they find a way to punish him when he runs, but they’re too smart for that. Lamar was amazing at avoiding contact almost the entire season. Little surprise you were in the title game. Haskins is basically a zero here in my book. I don’t think he has any keeper potential and you’re flat out hosed if Lamar goes down, but whatever it’s the 15th round.
RB: Cam Akers, Antonio Gibson, Boston Scott, Austin Ekeler, Chris Thompson, Nyheim Hines
Not a fan. Feels like you wasted Lamar a bit here, but that’s why we draft in the order we do. I like Ekeler a fair bit but he’s not a between the tackles guy. The Chargers are giving red zone touches to Kelley. Ekeler can’t be counted on for regular 25 point games. I bring this up because the way you drafted implies that you felt really secure at RB, so secure that you could wait until the end of the 3rd to pick one. Bad choice. Akers is a rookie and isn’t lined up as a bell cow, he’s splitting time and Brown has been atop the depth chart in LA all camp. It’s a huge gamble taking him as effectively your RB2 on the hope that he matures into a 3 down back as opposed to at best a 50-50 share. He’s a rookie, so he might flat out suck. Who knows. Similar worries about Gibson. We don’t have any idea how the splits will be in Washington and the week one returns are not promising. Making your first 2 RBs rookies is a massive gamble and in this case it’s a longshot. In Scott we have more of the same, he may depress Sander’s value but he probably won’t displace him entirely. Thompson…again, is he getting the carries in Jax? Not according to the depth charts and he’s dinged up. Hines only has value if Mack goes down and that’s exactly what happened in week 1. Seems like you might have been lucky here and we’ll see if that gets you over the top in the early weeks while we wait and see what happens with the others.
WR: Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Henry Ruggs III, John Brown
This is a killer group, no question about it, but it cost you big at the RB position. Adams and Jones are going to be lights out every single week so those picks are unimpeachable, I get the strategy, why gamble on a RB you don’t trust when there’s a sure thing on the board. But, it comes with a price greater than just the value of the picks. Will Adams and Jones be good enough to put you in the playoffs if you never manage to land a steady TD producer at RB? Maybe, maybe. Cooper is probably going to be one of the better flexes in the league too, so you’ve definitely got to the tools to overcome it. It’s an interesting contrast to Beef’s strategy. Top QB, Top WRs, rolling the dice at RB a bit.
TE: Darren Waller
Above average keeper and a bare minimum of investment. You’ll need Waller to be a reliable scorer if my concerns about the RB position are founded, but I think this is a good tactic. I’m sure going into this you weren’t planning on counting on Waller to be a top-half TE but with the way things shook out he will need to be. I’m not sure he’s more than just a guy, part of that mush of TEs in the 4-12 range that are basically interchangeable.
DEF/K: Pittsburgh, Younghoe Koo
You got one of each. Nice work.
Potential Keepers: Jackson of course, maybe Gibson or Scott
You’ll be riding Lamar for a while and will be a contender as a result. Perhaps the biggest failure here is the inability to find a really high upside keeper in the late rounds. That’s were the struggles to find a RB2 probably hurt you, the Himes and Thompson picks might have been better spent on rookies. If Gibson or Scott burst onto the scene, then circumstances may change but you didn’t take them all that late, so they may be useful but not league dominating keepers.
Prediction: This is a tough one. You may have one of the higher ceilings here. If Akers, Scott or Gibson are top 10 RBs you’re going to put a scare into Beef. You’re stacked in that case, but if my assessment of those situations is at all accurate you’re going to be in trouble should Lamar struggle or one of those top 3 WRs go down. Best case 11-2, worst case 8-5.
Baltimore Weirdos
- (14) Chris Carson (Sea - RB)
- (15) Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)
- (42) Kenyan Drake (Ari - RB) Keeper
- (43) Mark Andrews (Bal - TE) Keeper
- (70) Tyler Boyd (Cin - WR)
- (71) Jarvis Landry (Cle - WR)
- (98) Calvin Ridley (Atl - WR) Keeper
- (99) Sony Michel (NE - RB)
- (126) Bryan Edwards (LV - WR)
- (127) Robby Anderson (Car - WR)
- (154) New Orleans (NO - DEF)
- (155) Greg Olsen (Sea - TE)
- (182) Teddy Bridgewater (Car - QB)
- (183) Gus Edwards (Bal - RB)
- (210) Dan Bailey (Min - K)
- (211) Damien Harris (NE - RB)
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Teddy Bridgewater
The champ is looking poised for a repeat. Coming into this draft picking where he did and landing Mahomes seems unfair. Nothing at all needs to be said here. He’s my QB1 over Lamar, just barely. Lamar’s rushing TDs are juicy, but this Chiefs offense is going to roll people this season. I’m seeing a '07 Patriots type season with the advantage of the COVID restricted offseason hampering the competition. Just nuts. I’m not at all a fan of Bridgewater but hey, I disliked Lamar…if Dave catches lightning in a bottle there he’s got a golden keeper lined up.
RB: Chris Carson, Kenyan Drake, Sony Michel, Gus Edwards, Damien Harris
We see our first chink in the armor. While Carson can put up points with the best of them, his availability is always a little worrisome. As a frequent Carson owner, he’s also frustrating in that he’s a guy that often plays hurt and when he does his numbers suffer. So you find yourself with him in the lineup at 50%. He’s also a guy that gets vultured a bit. Drake is a nice keeper, but I wish you’d have found a way to handcuff Edmonds. The problem with Drake is Murray…around the red zone he’ll call his own number. So while Drake’s yardage numbers will probably be steady he might not put up the TDs you will need to win it all. Also Edmonds isn’t just a ambulance chaser, he’s getting more than a few touches meaning Drake is effectively in a timeshare. Michel is hot garbage, the only narrative that works here is that with Cam under center the Pats will run a much more traditional offense and Michel will get comfortable finally. I’m not buying it. Edmonds came off the board just before this pick so that’s a damn shame. Edwards is an ambulance chaser and vulture who I don’t see returning any value and he isn’t a keeper candidate, this feels like a bit of homerism. Harris is a awesome keeper candidate and if he comes off the IR he might push Michel out of the starting lineup. This tandem makes a bit of sense as a really low-end handcuff situation, so long as Cam isn’t the goal line back in New England (hint: he is).
WR: Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry, Calvin Ridley, Bryan Edwards, Robby Anderson
This started out pretty shaky but you really salvaged something positive here. Ridley is a nice keeper though not quite the premium as Beef’s crew. He’s a WR2 who’ll be your WR1, not ideal but workable. Shockingly I think Robby Anderson is your WR2. Had a monster week in week 1 and if that Bridgewater thing pans out it’ll be Anderson who gets the fruits, so he’s a terrific find where you got him. In NYJ he could be feast or famine, but with Teddy’s dink and dunk style he might become a steady point getter with the ability to take it to the house. I am not a Boyd fan at all, but if Burrow plays like he did at LSU Boyd is as likely as anyone to have a breakout season. I used similar logic in picking AJ Green in the same round so I shouldn’t throw stones. I’ve repeatedly beat up on the Browns and I wouldn’t want to be reliant on a Browns WR and to be honest, between Landry and OBJ I have no idea which is riskier. That said, I don’t hate the value. Edwards is a really smart potential keeper who could be a immediate contributor, excellent pick there.
TE: Mark Andrews, Greg Olsen
I think Andrews is the #2 TE in football this year. Just a gem of a keeper and he’ll regularly have big games in that TE spot. With Lamar he may be Kelce 2.0. Like everything about that, but as a 4th round keeper he’s not exactly a windfall. The Olsen pick is a bit of a head scratcher. The dude is cooked and I don’t think you needed to take him there if you liked him, he probably would have lasted a few more rounds. With Andrews I probably would have gambled on a rookie backup instead of a veteran here since you aren’t keeping Andrews next season.
DEF/K: New Orleans, Dan Bailey
You got one of each. Nice work.
Potential Keepers: Damien Harris, Bridgewater, Edwards
Harris is the guy that will make or break your 2021 season. If Belichick decides to run something resembling a traditional offense (or a Panthers circa 2014 offense) and Harris becomes the RB1, pushing James White into the shadows, then this pick could be a dominant one. I’m actually jealous I didn’t take him in the 15th. There’s a small chance that you’ll see something from Teddy, but Edwards is maybe the highest likelihood of panning out. But the value is lower compared to Harris.
Prediction: Just on the basis of Mahomes, I want to say this team is one of the 2 or 3 teams to beat, but the weakness at RB gives me a little pause. Even the WR group, while having potential, isn’t a top 4 or 5 group in this league. Do I think Mahomes, Andrews, Carson and Drake alone can put this team into the playoffs? No I don’t, he’ll need to get lucky or work out a acquisition to shore things up midseason. But with Mahomes, you’ve got a punchers chance every week. Best case 10-3, worst case 7-6.
Whew…there you have it folks.
The good news for the league is that this is the last year I can keep Lamar, unless folks would like to vote to extend…
Fair criticism. I was ready to pull the string on a couple backs, but none of them fell to me, and I’m very high on both Jones and Adams. Top tier of WR is thin, and I was able to lock it up with a top 10 RB (or at least very solid RB1) in my pocket. The remaining top RBs at that point were Sanders, Gordon and Ingram - and they all have big huge question marks on them. For some reason I thought Swift was injured, otherwise I’d have pulled the string on him in the 6th round.
I actually was - I expected him to be a top half producer last year, and I don’t see anything that’s really changed his situation this year, other than having more experience in that system. I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t finish Top 5.
Absolutely - this is a boom or bust team. In a 14 team league, it’s hard not to be and compete.
Thanks for the write-ups - yours are always the ones I’m waiting for, since you put a hell of a work into them.
I would trade Jamison Crowder (just put up 17 points because he’s all the Jets have) for a decent TE or defense. (Or some kind of defense swap - my Chicago defense for your good defense and crowder for some lesser wr/rb on your team).
And now Barkley’s out for the rest of the year. Joy.
I’m thinking this will be one of the most interesting waiver wire claim weeks in the history of the league.
There is a comfort in getting your ass kicked. Looking at the scores, I’m very glad I wasn’t up against Dave, since he would have beat me by 0.04 points. (That’s little comfort to Dave, who lost his actual game by 0.63 points this week.) There’s nothing I could have done this week, losing by 39 points. Even setting a perfect lineup would have only gotten me 22 more points.
I mostly avoided the worst of the injury bug that befell the NFL this week. Davante Adams should be back, which is crucial to my success. I was hesitant drafting Julio Jones, because he draws so much coverage in the endzone - and that’s what we saw this week. Ugh.
I was up watching MNF and when the Saints stopped the Raiders and the Raiders kicked a field goal, I knew Brees could get me the .7 points in garbage yardage that I needed to win. Brees has been a disappointment so far this season (time to fire up the Golden Moustachioed One), but at least he got me useless yardage at the end of a game.
Yeah, my team came together perfectly this week against you - Even the DEF I picked up off the waiver wire got me 21 points. Watson was below projections, but all my other offensive starters had at least one TD. I seem to always have one of these weeks early in the year before I regress to mediocrity.
My only injury was Mostert - looks like he’ll be out a week or two. Too bad, as he looked super explosive the first two weeks.
Dearest friends I would like to celebrate the joy of my 139 point game with all of you. Russell Wilson is the truth. Grabbing him with my 4th pick is the sort of move that can win a league. Keeping Metcalf gives me one of those synergizing hookups that can work so well.
If Metcalf didn’t have one of the all-time dumb moves that cost both him and Wilson a TD, they’d have scored a combined 73 points instead of the combined 58 points they actually scored.
The Cleveland D was a streaming matchup pickup I made before the game and that ended up working out really well to the tune of 22 points, but my TE and DEF situations could use improvement.
It looks like only Dale and I are going to start the league 3-0. He and I are also close competitors in the dynasty league, fighting for the crown of the same division. Going to be an interesting year for us.
That was an impressive showing.
I’m currently freaking out, because all of my picks have completely failed so far. My top 2 picks were out this week due to injury (Julio Jones and DaVante Adams), my TE keeper didn’t do squat, and my WR fill-in saw 2 targets and didn’t catch either of them. Worst of all, all of my zero-RB lottery picks are either hurt or have fallen down the depth chart.
Imma need things to turn around pretty quick if I’m going to make something of what I thought was a very solid draft.
Pretty good bounceback this week. Looks like I’ll end up with the second highest score of the week (if only Russell Wilson wasn’t a freak of nature). Barkley getting hurt might be a blessing in disguise. Nothing is getting done behind that line, and I would probably be pushing him out there every week for 10 points.
So far my draft young strategy has worked. Now I hope that as the season goes on, these younger players start getting worked into offenses even more
There are some issues this week with COVID tests. The Steelers/Titans game has been pushed to Week 7 - set your lineups accordingly.
The Chiefs/Patriots game is more complicated. It’s being pushed to Monday or Tuesday, with an outside chance it’s cancelled as well.
I think we should allow teams with KC/NE players to start a replacement, with a caveat of “if the KC/NE game plays this week, my starter is X”. No other contingencies for game day injuries. Teams must option with a message here or on the league page.
Ugh, I’ve got the NE D/ST. Let me think on this, don’t really want to drop them but I don’t have a second D/ST
And, yes, I would be keeping the NE D/ST (assuming they’re still giving me good performances) through their bye week by dropping someone or having an open spot due to IR
I agree, and that’s what we’re doing in the dynasty league.
For the record, I’m starting Preston Williams, but would swap out Tyreek Hill if the KC game is played this week.
Sorry for not weighing in - I totally agree with this approach; the only concern I would have would be contingent transactions, such as if Dave had said “if KC doesn’t play, drop Patrick Mahomes and pick up Ryan Leaf and start him”.
But I don’t think anyone is suggesting allowing that…