Help me make a fantasy football defense/ST decision -- Need answer fast!

First off, yes, I have three defenses. I also have only one loss, and finished out the regular season with more than 200 points than the next closest team. But losing Forte and Jennings means that every decision matters now, because I have to start Green-Ellis and Percy Harvin in their place.

Here are my choices, ranked in ascending order of the relatively meaningless Yahoo! predictive points.

Arizona vs. Cleveland
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Houston vs. Carolina

The latter bothers me–Yahoo still has them getting the most points, but I think Carolina can put up a lot of points, and they might have the ball a lot if TJ Yates is not on. Next lowest in the predictions is Cincinnati, and that’s who I’m currently starting. They’ve been on a skid lately, though, and while being up against a terrible opponent is good, will they be better than Arizona (and Patrick Peterson) vs. the abysmal Browns? My only concern is that Cleveland is actually BETTER without McCoy.

I’m down 53 points right now, but my opponent has already had 5 players go, while I’ve only had one. I still have a shot, but every decision is going to matter. Help me!

Yeah, I’d stay away from Cam Newton when you can start a defense playing either St. Louis or Cleveland. Think I would probably go with Arizona from those choices, but I see it as a coin flip between them and Cincy.

I think Kellen Clemens is getting the start for the Rams, so Cincy might be the way to go. But the Browns are equally inept. I like the playmakers in Cincy a bit better, so I’d go with them.

Okay, based on the responses I got here and on Facebook, it looks like I’m going to stick with my initial instinct of starting Cinci. Thanks!