Help me pick this weeks teams in this NFL confidence league

Cafe Society
1

Here they be.

    TAMPA BAY.............Arizona		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
DETROIT................Denver		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
TENNESSEE.............Carolina		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
KANSAS CITY.............Green Bay		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
San Diego.................MINNESOTA		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
NEW ORLEANS...........Jacksonville		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
ATLANTA	................San Francisco		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
Washington...............NEW YORK (NYJ)		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
Cincinnati.................BUFFALO		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 12:00 pm
CLEVELAND.............Seattle		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 3:05 pm
New England..............INDIANAPOLIS		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 3:15 pm
OAKLAND...................Houston		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 3:15 pm
Dallas................PHILADELPHIA		--	Sun, Nov 4 at 7:15 pm
PITTSBURGH................Baltimore		--	Mon, Nov 5 at 7:30 pm

Home team is bolded and the favored team is on the left.

Here are the latest odds.

Sunday, Nov 4
Favorite ->Open->Today ->O/U ->Underdog
at Atlanta ->3 ->3 ->37 ->San Francisco
Cincinnati ->2 ->1 ->43 ->at Buffalo
at Cleveland ->1 ->1 1/2- >46 1/2 ->Seattle
Dallas ->3 ->3 ->46 1/2 ->at Philadelphia
at Detroit ->NL ->3 ->45 1/2 ->Denver
at Kansas City ->NL ->2 ->37 ->Green Bay
New England ->4 1/2 ->5 ->56 1/2 ->at Indianapolis
at New Orleans ->NL ->3 ->40 ->Jacksonville
at Oakland ->3 ->3 ->41 1/2 ->Houston
San Diego ->NL ->7 ->41 ->at Minnesota
at Tampa Bay- >4 ->3 1/2- >37 1/2 - >Arizona
at Tennessee - >4 1/2 ->4 ->35 1/2 ->Carolina
Washington ->3 1/2 - >3 1/2 ->35 1/2 ->at NY Jets
Monday, Nov 5
Favorite ->Open- >Today- >O/U ->Underdog
at Pittsburgh ->8 1/2 ->9 1/2 - >36 ->Baltimore

The rules are (Yahoo) you place the number 1-14 on which team you think will win outright. No point spread to beat, just pick the outright winner. The confidence part comes in deciding where the upsets will be and how many points to put on each game IOW, how confident you are on each pick that that team will win the game.
This week is specially difficult in that the two top teams play each other so that basically takes the two easy picks off the table.
My picks are as follows; (I put the points next the team I chose to win in bold)
1TAMPA BAY…Arizona
2DETROIT…Denver
3TENNESSEE…Carolina
KANSAS CITY…Green Bay11 **
10San Diego…MINNESOTA
9NEW ORLEANS…Jacksonville
8ATLANTA …San Francisco
7Washington…NEW YORK (NYJ)
Cincinnati…BUFFALO4 **
CLEVELAND…Seattle**6 **
5New England…INDIANAPOLIS
12OAKLAND…Houston
13Dallas…PHILADELPHIA
14PITTSBURGH…Baltimore

Any thoughts, picks, suggestions will be greatly apprectiated!

2

I’d like to discuss, but first a clarification - is the game marked “1” the game about which you are most confident, or least?

3

Least, the goal is to get the most points each week. :wink:
I bet you’re wincing at the 11 on the Pack. :smiley:

4

Actually, I don’t have much of a problem with that one. They should beat Kansas City. The two that surprised me were the 13 on the Cowboys and the 12 on Oakland.

The second one seems particularly scary for such a high point bet. Oakland is not a very good team. Their record is actually poorer than Houston’s. Teams have been settling in and running all over Oakland for weeks, and they couldn’t beat Tennessee last week even with Vince Young turning in a stat line from 1922. Schaub isn’t going to play, but Sage Rosenfels is the guy who led the big comeback against Tennessee and I don’t see why he couldn’t do at least as well as Young did last week. Ron Dayne, who will probably start for the Texans, is not dissimilar in style to LenDale White, who the Raiders couldn’t tackle last week.

Granted, they’re in Oakland, but this game would scare me.

The Dallas - Eagles game looks obvious on paper, but it’s a rivalry game in Philadelphia and at 3-4 in a very tough division, the Eagles are basically playing for their season right now. I don’t know that I’d ever commit that many points to a rivalry game, which can usually go either way.

5

You’re insane to think the Cowboys are a gimme over the Eagles. I predict the Eagles win that game outright.

6

Ok smartypantses. Which matchups deserve the 12 and 13 if not Oakland and Dallas.

That’s why I started this thread. I wasn’t bragging about my prognostication skills, ya know.
:smiley:

7

I think Houston is the winner in that Raiders game. And I’m not nearly as confident in Pittsburgh as you are- but generally I think your list shakes out pretty good. The Cowboys beat the Eagles easily.

I would make New England/Indy my lowest confidence game, but I think mostly so that I could just enjoy it on its merits.

8

I’m pulling my hair out this week trying to make confidence picks. I’m not sure how much coming off a bye counts. Anyone? Does it essentially negate home field advantage?

For example:

AZ @ TB - TB is the better team playing at home, but AZ is coming off a bye

Sea @ Cle - Seems like a close call, so I’d normally pick the home team but Sea is coming off a bye.

GB @ KC - GB on the road vs. AFC is a tough call. KC is at home coming off a bye.

9

It’s your picks, but since you asked, I like Washington over the NY Jets and SD over Minnesota. Granted, they are both road teams.

Bearflag70, coming off a bye week seems to help most teams, but I think it depends on the team and the coaching staff. I don’t have numbers in front of me. Regarding the Green Bay vs. KC game, Green Bay has actually played better on the road than at home recently (since mid season last year?). About the only downside is that Green Bay has been winning ugly, so it’s hard to put a lot of faith in them. The Giants (on the road) was their only easy win of the year.

10

I’d go with something like this, but be aware that I suck beyond belief at picking games:

14: San Diego…MINNESOTA
13: PITTSBURGH…Baltimore
12: Cincinnati…BUFFALO
11: New England…INDIANAPOLIS
10: TENNESSEE…Carolina
09: Washington…NEW YORK (NYJ)
08: TAMPA BAY…Arizona
07: KANSAS CITY…Green Bay
06: Dallas…PHILADELPHIA
05: NEW ORLEANS…Jacksonville
04: DETROIT…Denver
03: ATLANTA …San Francisco
02: OAKLAND…Houston
01: CLEVELAND…Seattle

Incidentally, I went to the NY Post’s Post Line to get the spreads and had a nice chuckle at the asterisk by the Patriots.

11

I assume your picks are in bold. You are picking 8 upsets out of 14 games. It could happen, but does not seem likely to me.

12

Seven, actually. I’m not sure why the OP has the Bills listed as underdogs; they are two point favorites.

13

Bearflag70 may just be referring to the Bills’ metaphysical perpetual-underdog status.

14

I’d go 1,2,3,4

on Det-Den, GB-KC, Buf-Cin, NO-Jax.

Buffalo game is a toss-up. Jacksonville has played better over all than NO, and they’re good.

I feel good about Tennessee. I don’t feel grat about Tampa Bay, but a lot better than your 1-4.

In my survivor league, 6 people have Tampa Bay to win. In a week where only 5 different teams were chosen.

Don’t believe the hype about San Diego. Their recent wins have come against, KC, Denver and Oakland, 3 pretty bad teams, while Minnesota has played a pretty tough schedule, and been in every game (even at Dallas, they only lost by 10).

15

Yahoo has Cin as a 1 pt. favorite (See the OP)

16

I only got three wrong, the 10, 6 and 12 picks.
But lost too many points to win this week, at least I’m keeping pace for the league lead. I’m only 35 points out of second place and about 60 out of first. Tonites game could make a difference since I’ve got the most to gain with 14 points and I have no idea who the guys in front of my are picking although I would suspect they all go with Pitt.