There’s a threadon this.
Messing around on *538 *and 270towin, I came up with a map that’s sort of the last-ditch, minimum winning position for Hillary. Whether it’s strong enough to be called a “firewall” is an open question, but it includes only states where 538 has her still leading by more than two points. That’s the hard data formula aspect–but also, just sizing it up visually, it looks to me pretty hard to crack: I simply can’t picture any of these states going for Trump absent total disaster. The most vulnerable states are CO and NH, but both have a lot of college educated whites, who have recoiled from Trump this cycle, after having been typically Republican in the past.
It would be kind of pathetic if she won this narrowly, but I’d still take it over the alternative!
New Hampshire is already shaded in the same shade of light blue that Nevada was a few days ago before it turned pink. If things get worse I think NH will be the next domino to fall. That would be enough to put Trump over the top. I think I may need to stop following the race so closely for my own sanity :(.
Interesting map, I believe it’s exactly what I’d come up with right now for Clinton’s path to victory. It’s, I think, exactly what 538 has too. There are some recent polls that have Trump ahead or tied in those Clinton-must-win states though: Maine(!!!), Colorado and Michigan. I feel like there’d be others too if we had more polling on them, but shrug
There will probably be some stability between now and next Monday, and it looks like Trump has been getting the worst of the media coverage the last few days. Regardless, the debates are going to be extremely important.
Actually, in the 538’s Now-Cast and Polls-Plus models, the next most-likely Trump victory is in Colorado (although the Poll-Only model still has it at New Hampshire).
That’s about what I have at the moment though Florida is close to slipping back into the Clinton light blue, I think. It will be hard to call states within the margin of error if they remain so on the eve of the election. I think that Clinton’s machine will be better at getting voters out across a wider geographic area – a real advantage in that her campaign can multitask in ways Trump’s can’t. OTOH, I also suspect that for Clinton to be truly comfortable, she will need a lead of at minimum 2-3 points in polls. Trump is exactly the kind of candidate that might be polling low but turning out higher than what he polls. But I don’t think he turns out 4-5 percent higher – maybe 1-3 percent, with 3 being the very high end.
I think Hillary’s gotv advantage and late-breaking Bernie voters in swing states will more than make up for any shy Trump voters. But we will see. As for Maine, I followed that link and the only place where Trump has a lead is in congressional district 2 which I had already given him on my map.
You’re right, technically the 4-way race was 37% to 36.7%, but the sites I check regularly rounded it off to “Tied”: RCP and 538
Anecdotally, my cousin is a Mainiac for Trump (and an “alt-right”, “prepper”, gun nut). But he is in CD2. CD1 has a lot of Mass. expats, even some who commute to Boston.
I still remember Hillary’s opening line from the SNL sketch about one of her debates with Bernie, late in the primary season: “I think you’re really gonna like the Hillary Clinton my staff has put together for you tonight!”
Probably a ‘mixed-politics’ couple; she’s for Clinton, he’s for Trump.
Trump represents an idea: punching liberals in the teeth. That’s what these voters want to do. There will have to be a palpable fear among Hillary’s supporters to make up for this. Not “I don’t like the things Donald Trump says,” but “Jesus H F Christ! This guy is this close to having his finger on the button and gutting our economy?!”
I also wonder what kind of impact events such as what is happening in Charlotte will have. I absolutely sympathize with the protesters in what is most likely another outrageous police shooting. But unfortunately, the ugly reality is that having large mobs of angry African Americans in front of the camera scares ‘nice’ white people in the suburbs.
I have felt that Hillary is probably the odds-on favorite to win by a state or two. The economy is pretty much no longer an issue, and historically that usually gives an advantage to the candidate seen as closest to being the ‘incumbent’, which would be Hillary in this case. Thus, Trump is now trying to ignite a culture war because only a culture war can save him. Clinton has the advantage for now, but a bad debate performance and a few devastating terrorist attacks and widespread civil unrest in minority communities would probably play right into Trump’s hands.
I hear this a lot. This is not a feature; it’s a bug. A big scary bug. Because what it implies is that when Trump says insane things it’s not an act or a mistake, he’s genuinely insane. It means that when he says bigoted things, he means it. And it suggests that when he claims things have happened or are happening that are patently untrue, he genuinely believes them to be true. You are suggesting that Trump says what’s on his mind in the same way that people with Tourette’s do. Is that a quality you want a president?
Unsupported slur noted.
Gee, remember when Ben Carson was saying dumb stuff and you were saying that it was his handlers’ fault for not managing him better?
Also: Donald Trump says he’s going to “hire the best people” to run his administration to cover up for his blatant lack of knowledge, intellect or experience, and that’s somehow a good thing (even though the people he’s hired have not, by and large, been very good). Hillary Clinton actually has a competent team behind her AND the knowledge, intellect and experience to know how to use them, and this is somehow a bad thing. And this makes sense to you?
Not when you’re playing chess with a pigeon.
Me likey.
Trump Institute is clearly a source for education, though not necessarily higher education. The people who shelled out their money certainly learned a lesson.
Got it. I was going by what the colors on the map looked like to my eyes. I’ll look at the actual numbers a little more closely next time 
That’s why this fall I opened the University of Rick. For just $5000 per semester - a bargoon, as compared to Trump U - you can learn valuable life lessons in a wide syllabus of courses:
BIO-101 “Does it Hurt When You Touch A Hot Stove?”
BIO-102 “How About When I Kick You In The Nuts?”
MAT-101 “Your Life Savings At The Casino; A Comparative Study of Reliable Index Funds vs. Hitting On Sixteen When The Dealer’s Showing a Four”
PSY-101 “Let’s Find Out How Your Spouse Reacts When You Tell Them You Fucked Their Sibling”
LIF-110 "Is Wrestling An Angry Mountain Lion Good For You?
While my students are accumulating all this wisdom I’ll be doing the same, learning to say “Please bring me more alcoholic beverages” in Spanish at a five star Caribbean resort.
Hillary sits down with Zach Galifianakis.
“For a younger generation, you will also become their first white president. That’s pretty neat too.”
“I assume he’ll wear that red power tie.”
“Or maybe, like, a white power tie.”
“That’s even more appropriate.”