Thank you. I’ll be here all century.
Donald Trump is three and a half points behind. I don’t know what election you’re watching. It’s a very close race.
show me your mucus!!
Do me a solid. Never say that again.
I think this is pretty much how I see it at the moment myself. Hillary will almost certainly drop. Whether it’s 2 percent or 7, nobody really knows yet. But she can recover if Donald Trump comes out with another foot-in-mouth comment or if she clubs him at the first debate. And just a few interviews and press appearances in which she appears to be back to her normal self again would probably restore some measure of confidence.
But clearly, the weekend is going to bring her back to within striking distance of Trump, and time is of the essence. Also, I would be careful about being overconfident of Hillary’s performance during the debates. I remember people making that assumption about Al Gore, and while the pundits gave Gore the slight edge, the voters clearly didn’t see it that way. Another person made similar remarks about Reagan v Carter, which happened when I was in grade school so I don’t remember. But clearly, the voting public applies a different standard than a bunch of us wonks on SDMB.
Maybe close, but “very close”? At this point, I’m pretty sure Romney was much closer in '12 than Trump is now. I think even McCain in '08 was this close or closer.
Chuck Schumer says he too has pneumonia.
And the countdown to the “Schumer’s schtupping Clinton” rumors begins…now!
Do you a solid? Like you’ve done for me so many times through the years?
Nah, sorry, can’t promise. It’s just too much fun.
Uh, yes, they did. Gore won the popular vote by half a millon votes. That’s a true fact, you could look it up!
He’s just waiting for the audit to be over!
Tyrion is probably the most popular character on the show. I’m not sure what your point is…
the insane differences in how media treat trump vs hillary is just astounding. he has spent a year insulting every demographic (except uneducated whites) and nada… hillary is sick and shes back to untrustworthy, liar, release ALL records, etc…
my god, trump still is holding is fracking tax returns. its just insane where we are in a political dialogue space.
It’s gonna be the highest rated Maury ever, believe me!
IIRC, I saw some Gallup polling timelines from races in the past. In looking at the timelines, it seemed like late September and early October was usually the point of no return. However, there have been exceptions. The 2000 and 2004 races were competitive right up until the very end. My point is, we will probably begin to see some hardening of the electorate after the first debate. What happens before the debates absolutely matters, because it has a way of framing what people see during the debates. Whatever undecided voters think they see in the candidates now - good, bad, or in between - will be amplified when they see them in the debates.
The narrative of Donald Trump is that he’s a bloviating, racist, windbag who has utterly no clue about what he’s talking about. Voters may indeed see that. But it’s entirely possible that Roger Ailes is giving him some serious prep work and that he might just somehow find ways to pull off looking the part -and I’ve said this much all along and I’ll keep saying it: Donald Trump doesn’t really have to be qualified to be president. He just needs to convince voters for a few more weeks that he could be presidential. Voters accept that this is a different kind of candidate, who rejects the conventional etiquette and protocols associated with running for high office. Bigoted, bloviating, or whatever else, that’s actually one of his more attractive qualities in the eyes of many voters.
The narrative of Hillary Clinton now seems to be that she’s knowledgeable, and that we are safer in her hands. In her debate performance, she has to live up to that billing. At the same time, she’s dealing with fundamental doubts about her credibility and even concerns about possible fragility and unfitness. She will have to dispel those doubts as well. In some ways, even though Hillary Clinton has experience in the national political spotlight, the burden is placed more squarely on her shoulders. There’s pressure on Trump - he absolutely could be a deer in headlights and that’s what Ailes and his handlers are afraid of. But Hillary has to impress as well as allay concerns.
It wasn’t enough, was it? Who became president? I don’t remember a president Gore.
“left wing”? Who are you talking about? Not Hillary, obvs.
It would be crass folly to rely on that Trump will simply self-destruct. Some people may find it hard to believe, but he does want to win, or at least come close enough that he leaves both the Dems and the Establishment Reps dreading what horrors may come next time around when a more sophisticated demagogue takes the floor.
Hillary’s camp OTOH due to her admittedly way over any airline’s limit load of baggage, has been trying to play a defensive campaign, and that does not really work to excite the masses. Not only that but operating on a “don’t make mistakes, don’t make mistakes, don’t make mistakes” mode actually does set you up to make mistakes since they are in your mind all the time and you get distracted from what’s in front of you.
The complaint that she’s pressed on the issues and Trump isn’t? It’s not just that she’s held to a higher standard: it’s also that whether deliberately or unwittingly, some of the interviewers are trying to give her a spot to wow the audience with how sophisticated and prepared she is. Unfortunately, voters who care about a president being sophisticated and well prepared are a relative minority and most of them are already voting for her.
Plus yes, be it true or not, be it fair or not, both Clintons DO suffer a public perception that their first instinct is to make up some BS or say nothing, rather than let the chips fall where they may. If you get sick on Friday why hide it until you almost pass out in public on Sunday, when as has been mentioned before, that could have been spun favorably: “the candidate is having a bout of pneumonia and may have to curtail activities; but she does still expect to attend the 9/11 memorial on Sunday”.
And tonight, on “tales from the fever swamp”…
Despite the fact that a piece of metal (most likely a bolt) falls from Hillary as she is shoved into the van (you can hear and see it in the video), I’ve restrained myself from suggesting she is a robot. Don’t I deserve some credit for that?
“Deserve ain’t got nothin’ to do with it!”
- William Munny, exit interview with “Little Bob”.
Chad Hangings.