538 isn’t God, has been wrong numerous times re:Trump, and is no longer credible.
Mark my words, come election day 538 will have egg on its face.
I feel certain Hillary’s percentage will start climbing rapidly again right after the first debate.
Pushed herself? Shit, she couldn’t even stand up by herself let alone push anything.
You know, I never really believed Clinton would win this as much as I believed Trump would lose it. Clinton lacks charisma. Her success isn’t because people like her as much as it’s because they can’t stand Trump. Trump was giving it to her being the jerk he was. However, Trump’s handlers have restrained his stupidity and he’s acting less and less like a jerk. This ain’t a done deal by any means.
Here’s another thing that may be missed in the polls: Trump’s voters are more committed to voting for him than Clinton’s, and the polls have repeatedly made that clear. Thus, if Clinton has even a 2 percentage point lead in the polls, there is a good chance that this could flip on election day, with more Trump supporters arriving and taking the time to vote than Clinton’s. Truthfully, the ones who are most committed to supporting Clinton are terrified Muslims, Hispanics (Mexicans mostly), some African Americans, and white liberals who believe that Trump is a fascist. Unfortunately, that number is probably only equal to and slightly less than the number of largely though not entirely white voters who believe that Trump is a smart take-no-prisoners corporate shark whose gonna change Washington, protect Christianity, and avenge past losses to the Clintons.
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This is whistling in the dark. You’ve completely underplayed the danger of a Trump presidency. What he can do is far, far worse than not getting anything done or making the Democrats look bad.
It is not whistling in the dark to following a well-tested algorithm for the race, instead of acting like any one poll is predictive and comparing it to a completely different poll,.
Being worried accomplishes nothing. You are presumably already doing everything you can so that Clinton can win. Worrying about what you can’t change accomplishes nothing. Whistling in the dark is actually a good thing.
Don’t get me wrong–I worry, too. I’m worried I’ll be in full out panic attacks the closer we get to election day. But I know it accomplishes nothing. That’s why I take frequent breaks and ignore what’s going on.
A dip in support was predictable here. I’m praying it won’t matter.
What do you mean by that? What would you consider egg on its face? The numbers they put up are what would happen if the election happened today. It is not a prediction of the future. I suspect their numbers the day of the election will be as accurate as the last two elections.
There is a lot of time before the election. It’s almost certain that another big story will come along and have people talking. However any hint of ill health will be pounced on by the press so this needs to be the only incident or it will continue to overshadow other issues.
ETA: I may be reading it wrong so correct me if I am. It looks to me that the only state they got wrong in the primary was Michigan. Along with the record from the last two elections of getting 99 out of 100 states correct makes me think it is still the best site to watch.
Define that and let’s set a wager, shall we? I’m always up for an extra hundred bucks.
The way this manifests the most in the polls is the fairly consistent difference between the two-way and the three-way numbers with Clinton’s lead typically being stronger when the choice is two-way. When given a choice of all four Trump’s supporters are less likely to say another name. And they are saying they plan on voting.
Of course that means two things - 1) That bit is already captured in the polls. The four-way captures that effect. 2) They say they plan on voting when asked but statistically they have not in the past and there is not much infrastructure to help them get there. Clinton’s support may include some who are less fired up but they mostly consistently come out and vote in Presidential cycles whether they are fired up or not.
But I am on record as agreeing with the basic premise here that who actually turns out will be the big wildcard on election day and is where the uncertainty lies more than anything else. My punditic thought is that the data analytics informed GOTV machine will deliver a couple of points in key states and non-college educated Whites will not suddenly have turnout at college-educated women levels “because Trump” … but past never necessarily predicts future performance so we will see.
My bold.
Another big story…or twelve… :smack:
Depends on the moderation – Trumps has thus far skated on bluster.
“Due to the severely delicate nature of Ms Clinton’s health, I cannot in good conscience consent to appear with her unless she is in a wheelchair on stage with an IV drip to keep her hydrated, under the direct supervision of an EMT. Further, I must insist that Dr. Oz be the moderator, so that a physician is immediately at hand when she crumbles beneath the awesome power of my awesomeness. Outside of these, I have no further requirements, except that any mention of ‘tax returns’ or ‘genital leprosy’ be forbidden.”
If Hillary’s cough is merely allergies, then why doesn’t Rachael Maddow and the army of Hillary supporting media show clips of Hillary coughing when she was younger and healthier? Did she just develop these allergies in her sixties? She’s been in public life and public speaking for 30 years. There should be other clips of her coughing for 4 minutes straight.
I agree with this. I don’t believe Hillary has just lost the election but her margin for error has become a whole lot smaller since Sunday.
First page of adult onset allergy google search. You’re welcome.
Clinton is almost 69. The article you cite discusses people over 40. I still find it questionable she developed allergies in her sixties.
I’m only allergic to work and vegans.
60 > 40