Hillary's lead over Sanders "nearly vanishes".

Ever since the beginning of the race, I’ve assumed that Hillary would have a cakewalk to the Democratic nomination. Hillary has most of the big endorsements from powerful liberal interest groups,she has the support of 760 CEOs and chief executives, she has tons more money that anyone else could dream about, she has connections to virtually ever Washington insider in existence, and she has name recognition. Those are the things that generally predict who will get the nomination. Even though Hillary has massive weaknesses–total lack of charisma, nonstop lying and sleaze, bad case of foot-in-mouth disease–I assumed her support from Wall Street and the establishment would carry her through.

Bernie Sanders entered the campaign polling in the single digits, and why wouldn’t he? He hadn’t even really been a Democrat for his whole Senate career. In summer his numbers climbed slowly to about 30% and seemed to get stuck there, giving Hillary a comfortable margin despite all the bad news that had hit her campaign. And it stayed that way through the fall.

And then Boom!

Hillary Clinton’s support among Democrats nationally has taken a serious tumble, falling eight points to 43%, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll. Support for her chief rival, Bernie Sanders, climbed six points to 39%. As a result, Clinton’s lead over Sanders, which had been 18 points, is now just 4 points. Other polls have shown the race tightening in Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 1, and New Hampshire, which has its primary eight days later. Two recent New Hampshire surveys have Sanders in the lead, and the latest NBC poll in Iowa has Sanders just three points behind Clinton.

Regionally, Clinton saw her support drop most in the Northeast (where it fell to 36% from 50%) and the West (37% down from 49%). Sanders now holds the lead in both places. Clinton support also tumbled among suburban voters, dropping to 39% from last a month’s 50%. And she has lost backing among moderate Democrats, falling to 44% from 58%. Sanders picked up 10 points among moderates, to 37%.

This poll could be a fluke, but if other polls show something similar then there may be a Democratic race after all.

She will.


I’d say it is on par with most other politicians, and definitely not nonstop.

I’d say less than many other politicians

It will be perceived as a real race as long as the news media promotes it as such. In reality…

Regardless what Sanders does, and no matter how much of a horse race the media makes the Democratic nominating process, Hillary will be the nominee in the end, and I say this as a fan of Bernie.

The IBD poll covers 1/4 - 1/8. A Fox news poll covering 1/4 - 1/7 showed Hillary up by 15 (nationally.) The Fox news poll, despite its source, is consistent with the rest of the recent polling on the race. The IBD poll is not. So why would I place any stock in the IBD poll? I wouldn’t, unless a) I’m a journalist looking to make a story where there otherwise is none, b) I’m a Republican desperately hoping to find weakness in Hillary, or c) I’m a delusion Sanders fan.

Am I allowed to speak here as I would in the BBQ pit? No, right? Because that is the only place I could give you my true opinion of Hilary Clinton.
(I am voting for Bernie)

Obvious garbage poll is garbage.

AFAIK, pejoratives aimed at celebrities like Clinton are permitted in any forum as long as
[ul][li] The target of the invective, e.g. Ms. Clinton, is not a Doper.[/li][li] Certain offensive terms including but not limited to ote*****e* are avoided.[/li][/ul]
I hope a Mod will correct this if it is wrong.

On a related matter, what does " cuck / kuck " mean? (Is this a new word? Qin was still in diapers when I was last in North America.)

I don’t totally write off Bernie’s chances yet … Iowa is an odd enough best that a surprise there is possible even with her sizable polling lead, and he is fairly consistently in the lead in NH. Hillary losing both would be something that would give Bernie enough credibility that many would start to look at him as Fer Realz for the first time.

But on the basis of one outlier poll? That’s “boom” as in “I just made a boom-boom, Mommy. Change me.”
I think “cuck” comes from cuckold as a word to mean weak and emasculated. I’ve personally only heard it this cycle. No idea if it is more common in general usage than I know.

“Cuckservative,” at any rate, only appears to date back to last July.

It’s a shame O’Malley couldn’t put together a halfway competent campaign. The more exposure Hillary gets, the less popular she becomes, and yet he can’t cash in at all.

Agreed on all counts. However, the stronger the showing Sanders makes in the primaries, the better his chance at the VP slot (assuming he even wants it). And a Clinton-Sanders ticket would be unbeatable.

I am back after some time with my friends from Queens. It was crazy. Wild. Crazy as hell. I worked also, it wasn’t a vacation. As for Bernie, he’ll win New Hampshire and maybe Vermont, Massachusetts, Oregon, but that’s about it. He’s a good man, but he has to do better in debates.

To be fair, a Popeye/Elmer Fudd Democratic ticket would be unbeatable this time around.

With all due deference to the observations marking this polling result as various flavors of ‘anomaly’, it has to be admitted Mr. Sanders is a nontrivial threat to Hillary. I mean, she lost a sure thing once before you may recall (I believe Obama came from behind and started dancing on her face in the polls around February 2008–he was a mile behind her in January). And for all the facetime she gets with the MSM at Sanders’ expense, Sanders is getting really good FaceBook time in social media. It certainly feeds the suspicion the MSM is ignoring him for their own nefarious motives. It would be kind of cool to witness The Masses resist breathing the air blown to them, and voting in a guy they’ve been told has no chance.

My understanding is Sanders is doing extremely well among millennials (something like a 20-30 point lead) and white liberals (no idea of his lead among them, but it is probably 30+ points).

However Hillary does better among minorities. Unless Sanders can get them then it will be a fairly easy race for Hillary to win.

One of Hillary’s winning traits also is the fact that she reminds people of the Clinton years of the 90s. In retrospect those were really good years. Before 9/11, the war on Terror, Bush, Iraq, the economic collapse, etc. and things like health care costs & the economy (and income inequality) were still not great but not as bad as now. I think that’ll be a big part of her appeal, people who she reminds of the 90s. Nostalgia.

I am not surprised to see weakness in the polls for a candidate who can’t tell us what she stands for, what she will do as president, and has so far run a lackluster negatively oriented campaign. So I think we can all see that her candidacy is over because random early January polls always reflect the end result of the primary season…right?

Lettuce be real tea, as the kids said years ago. Bernie ain’t winning. People ask if Trump really wants to be POTUS, but does Bernie? Or does he just want to tug the party leftward and raise awareness?

I don’t care how close Bernie is polling in Iowa now, I predict Hillary will walk away with it once the caucusing starts. She took Iowa/caucuses for granted eight years ago and it bit her; she won’t do that again.

Cuck is short for Cuckold. It’s a recently popular insult in the Pickup Artist/Men’s Rights communities. Those communities deride “cucks” as beta losers who can’t attract women, unlike the strong alpha males. Those communities generally are not known for mature behavior or rational thinking. Some of them are outright toxic.

Or of course neoliberal hacks who’ve never had an original idea that wasn’t from a Weekly Standard or Wall Street Journal editorial and are now crying about being in the single digits and wondering why sucking Koch cock won’t vault them to victory.

In political discussions, cuck is an attack on the right establishment from the far right, often by white nationalists. Think a more caustic version of RINO or race traitor. The idea is these guys are selling out white America with pro-immigration/pro-black liberal policies, which ends with white women being screwed by minorities. It comes from cuckold porn, where the stereotypical nerdy white husband is the cuck who stands by helplessly as a big strong black guy has sex with his wife. Usually the white guy gets off on his own emasculation, as does the presumably white male viewer. America is weird like that.