Hot Stove for Baseball talk

[What_Exit]

Strange Trade.
Last year at the deadline Atlanta was considering trading Hudson. They are stuck with a lot of cashed owed on Hampton and they have no first baseman.
Giambi is owed 42.5 million for the next two years. He is also owed a $5 nillion buyout for 2009. We pay the buyout now to get rid of it. Hudson & Hampton apears to be owed roughly $55 million more. Hampton is probably useless but Hudson is still a very good pitcher.
Would AOL dump the money for Jason Giambi?
As we are talking $13 million over two years, can we pry one of the young lefty relievers off the Braves at the same time? Is this proposal nuts*?
Yanks are close to a deal sending Wright to Baltimore for either a top prospect or someone off their 25 man roster.

Jim

[wonky]

@What Exit?

Yanks are close to a deal sending Wright to Baltimore for either a top prospect or someone off their 25 man roster.

Wright’s worth a top prospect? Hmm. I guess I don’t know anything about his 2006.

[What_Exit]

@jsgoddess

Wright’s worth a top prospect? Hmm. I guess I don’t know anything about his 2006.

I do not get it either, but apparently the Yanks will pay $4 million of the $7 and the pitching coach already likes him.

Jim

[Kiros]

Wright was not bad in 2006. He pitched decently, but had a lot of trouble going deep into games. The reports are that the Orioles will be sending Chris Britton, a righty reliever, to the Yankees along with paying the Yankees more money than they really should be.

They should have traded Wright to the NL, he probably could have been a Cy Young contender there. As it is, it’s a pretty good dump deal for the Yanks, though one has to wonder what the back end of their rotation is going to look like next year - I suppose they must thing Hughes is REALLY close to being ready?

[Kiros]

Err, my bad on that, the money’s going the other way, Yanks to Orioles - read that wrong the first time. Still not sure it’s a great deal for the O’s, but I guess it’s worth a chance for a team so badly in need of pitching - plus, Wright’s “great” year was with Mazzone, albeit in the NL.

[Marley23]

I’m very happy with the Sheffield trade. I’ve been saying for months that trading him for prospects was exactly what they should do. If somebody wants Jaret Wright, that’s also just fine by me.

I’m not seeing the Giambi trade, What Exit? I don’t know who would play first if the Yankees made the deal, and despite his low average, his patience at the plate makes him a central part of their lineup.

[What_Exit]

@Marley23

I’m very happy with the Sheffield trade. I’ve been saying for months that trading him for prospects was exactly what they should do. If somebody wants Jaret Wright, that’s also just fine by me.

I’m not seeing the Giambi trade, What Exit? I don’t know who would play first if the Yankees made the deal, and despite his low average, his patience at the plate makes him a central part of their lineup.

For what it is worth, the Yanks have already said Jason is the DH and they looking into a right handed 1b. Phillips is a possibility, but they are looking at Garciapara.
My trade proposal is a long shot, but it would net us a good starter and free the DH position up for Bernie & Posada and rest for the outfielders to give more playing time to Melky.

Jim

[Marley23]

Interesting, I hadn’t heard that. Garciaparra did have a good 2006. We still don’t know if Bernie is coming back, and I’m not sure it’s time to move Posada out of the catching spot - and even if it was time, wouldn’t it be better to have Giambi DHing instead of that combo?

[brianjedi]

@Kiros

At the very least, I would expect a sign-and-trade, the kind you’d see in the NBA - the Sox sign him to a contract to fulfill the bid-posting process, and immediately trade him to another team that has agreed on the contract, will pay the Sox most of the cash for the bid, will give the Sox a prospect or player, and is not the Yankees. I wouldn’t really be THAT surprised if they ended up signing him, though.

Why go through all that? If they don’t sign him, they get the bid money back, so they’re not out anything (and can get him cheaper next year as a free agent.)

[What_Exit]

@Marley23

Interesting, I hadn’t heard that. Garciaparra did have a good 2006. We still don’t know if Bernie is coming back, and I’m not sure it’s time to move Posada out of the catching spot - and even if it was time, wouldn’t it be better to have Giambi DHing instead of that combo?

Posada is 35 going on 36 next August. He should rest for 40-50 games, maybe even 60 per year. DH is a great way to rest a good hitting catcher. This also protects two older Yanks from the World Series run. Good for the fans and them.

I do not expect Jason to be traded, but the question often comes up of where could we trade him to if we wanted to. I think the deal I mentioned above might answer the question.

We could also use some flexibility that DH would provide to rest the aging outfield contingent and give Melky plenty of starting time.

If Giambi remains on the team, I would expect him to DH 120 games and play 40 at first.

Jim

[What_Exit]

@brianjedi

Why go through all that? If they don’t sign him, they get the bid money back, so they’re not out anything (and can get him cheaper next year as a free agent.)

Does anyone know if there is any penalty for not signing him?
It would seem like the team should pay 10% of the bid, even of they fail to sign.

Jim

[Marley23]

That plan works just fine without Bernie - but there still wouldn’t be a starting spot for Melky. Giambi has two years left on his deal, and he’ll be 38 when it ends. Would they just let him go and move Matsui to first or DH then? Two years seems like a long time to make Melky wait.

[What_Exit]

@Marley23

That plan works just fine without Bernie - but there still wouldn’t be a starting spot for Melky. Giambi has two years left on his deal, and he’ll be 38 when it ends. Would they just let him go and move Matsui to first or DH then? Two years seems like a long time to make Melky wait.

No starting spot for Melky next year, but I think we can get him 40 starts + injuries with the current team and if we lost Giambi, I think we could get him 80-100 starts + injuries. Bobby Abreu could be gone at the end of next year. If we were going to move Matsui, we should probably do it this year. That would let Melky start immediately in left.

It sounds like you do not want Bernie back? I am trying to find ways to bring him back as the fifth outfielder, primary pinch hitter and part time DH. I would like to see Bernie play another year or two in pinstripes.

Jim

[Kiros]

@brianjedi

Why go through all that? If they don’t sign him, they get the bid money back, so they’re not out anything (and can get him cheaper next year as a free agent.)

Because they would most get an asset of some significant value in return, and ensure that he would stay out of the Bronx for the long term. One report has the Mets bidding second-highest at 30 million or more… with their situation (Pedro’s injury, desperation for pitching in general, desperation for relevance in the NYC market, possible ‘last piece’ to put them over the top), someone like Heilman or Milledge plus 30-35 million of the posting fee for Matsuzaka wouldn’t be out of the question, and it guarantees he stays out of the Yankee pinstripes (and better yet, in the NL) for the next six years.

If they just let him go back to Japan and get their fee back, odds are he signs with the Yankees next year anyways - and there would be virtually no chance he’d sign with Boston after this year’s snub. Additionally, though the posting fee wouldn’t be there, the value of the contract would almost certainly be much higher as a true free agent, with the ability to negotiate with (and thus manipulate the bidding of) all of the interested teams.

What Exit?: As far as I know, there is no monetary penalty for not signing him. I imagine that if the Sox have the highest bid and don’t sign him or trade him, they’ll pay more than enough of a penalty between the local media and their general repuation, though.

I will say that if the Sox do in fact have the highest bid, I think they’ll try to sign him, and any other course of action will be dictated only by issues with Boras.

[Kiros]

1. Take the “most” out of my first sentence in the last post, missed it on editing.
2. Reports are that the Cubs have re-signed both Aramis Ramirez (five years) and Kerry Wood (one year). At least one list (ESPN’s) had Ramirez as the top available FA. No money figures are available yet, but assuming the numbers are reasonable, this has to be seen as a good thing for the Cubs.

[Marley23]

@What Exit?

It sounds like you do not want Bernie back? I am trying to find ways to bring him back as the fifth outfielder, primary pinch hitter and part time DH. I would like to see Bernie play another year or two in pinstripes.

I’d be happy to keep him, and he was a very pleasant surprise this year. I’m just wondering if he’ll come back, and what’s best for Cabrera.

[What_Exit]

@Kiros

2. Reports are that the Cubs have re-signed both Aramis Ramirez (five years) and Kerry Wood (one year). At least one list (ESPN’s) had Ramirez as the top available FA. No money figures are available yet, but assuming the numbers are reasonable, this has to be seen as a good thing for the Cubs.

Good move for the Cubs on both. I would rate both Zito and Soriano ahead of Ramirez. I would expect a drop in his HR numbers if he left the comfort of Wrigley.
Zito is a top notch lefty starter under 30. His type would be a prime free agent any year. Post Season experience and a Cy Young in bank only increase his value. Best pitcher on the market, puts him #1 on my review of the Free Agent market.

I think Soriano offers more offense. More power than Aramis and more speed.
I would place him #2.

Marley23: There is probably room for Bernie as the fifth outfielder. Think of him as the next Ruben Sierra, Chili Davis type of good veteran bat of the bench.
I think Cashman is just biding his time to see how trades work out and what falls in our lap.

Jim

[What_Exit]

From ESPN.com:

Wright move? O’s acquire righty from Yankees
NEW YORK – The New York Yankees wanted to save $3 million, and for that price the Baltimore Orioles thought Jaret Wright was a bargain.
Wright was traded to the Orioles on Sunday for right-handed reliever Chris Britton. As part of the deal, the Yankees will pay $4 million of Wright’s $7 million salary next year.

New York had until Sunday to opt out of Wright’s contract, a move that also would have cost the Yankees a $4 million buyout. Wright, a right-hander who turns 31 on Dec. 29, will be reunited with pitching coach Leo Mazzone. When the pair were with the Atlanta Braves in 2004, Wright went 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA.

[Kiros]

Zito would scare the hell out of me if my team were thinking about signing him. Over the last several years he’s pretty consistently excelled against the teams with weak lineups and gotten pounded by the teams with strong lineups. You can say that about a lot of pitchers, but the splits are pretty well defined in his case, independent of home/away or anything else. It’s a good way to rack up a decent regular season with a bunch of wins, but… well, shutting down the Twins and then getting pounded by the Tigers in the playoffs was a pretty good representation on how he’s pitched in general the last few years. For example, this past year:

2006
Zito vs. Top 7 AL Teams in Runs Scored: 103.1 IP, 66 ER, 5.76 ERA
Zito vs. Everyone Else: 117.2 IP, 28 ER, 2.14 ERA

This is a pretty consistent trend throughout his career, more in some years, less in a couple of others. Particularly, less in his first couple of years when he had a much higher strikeout rate than he has had recently. My layman’s guess is that the lower strikeout rate is indicative of him becoming the kind of pitcher who relies much more on location and finesse, and that that sort of thing tends to not work as well against extremely patient hitting teams, which the top scoring teams usually are. Whether that’s right or wrong…

… this is a trend that you’ll see from a lot of the pitchers in the league, sure. The best hitting teams are going to hit pitchers harder than the worst ones - it only stands to logic. You WON’T see that trend, however, in the few true aces around MLB. Guys like Santana, Carpenter, Halladay, even a Schilling… sure, they’re on some days, and off some days. But when they’re on, they aren’t getting hit around, no matter who the opponent is. They will likely show a split where the better hitting teams score a bit more on them, but it won’t be anywhere near that drastic. The drastic splits are things you see on sort of second-tier guys like a Radke, 2006 Randy Johnson (he had some good games against the AL Central, but almost all the poundings he took were against the good teams in the AL, and he dominated most of the weaker ones), even Verlander (he got a lot of pub for a quality rookie season and his velocity, but his K ratio was actually relatively modest and he got pounded by the big guys) - these pitchers all end up with stats that are very useful for your team, but they are effectively number 2 guys and iffy in the playoffs.

So I guess what I’m saying is I don’t think Zito is worth “ace” money for a team like the Red Sox or Yankees that is facing the AL East all season and then demands playoff success. He’s a quality pitcher, and by no means am I saying he’s BAD… but he isn’t the guy you want starting game one, and he’s going to end up being paid like that guy.

[Not_A_Tame_Lion]

You’re dead on, Kiros. I’ve watched Zito from up close for years now–I was actually in the stands for his major league debut–and I can say with confidence that your analysis is correct. Zito’s not a bad pitcher by any means, but when the big boys step up to the plate, more often than not he wilts. In a way he’s almost the personification of the A’s over the last six or so years: good at beating up the weak teams, but folds faster than Superman on laundry day when faced with determined competition. Despite his strong points and positive record since 2000, I won’t feel all that crushed when he leaves for another team. Whomever signs him will get a good pitcher who will eat up some innings and win 15-16 games a year, but they will not get a top flight, number one starter. And he won’t put a team over the top come the postseason.