I meant to rephrase #1 to the “killing role pool, regardless of alignment”.
Suffice it to say that Chronos appears to be much more comfortable drawing some conclusions that I’m not comfortable drawing just yet.
Conclusions was a strong word. Strong suggestions and hypothetical weight, and so on.
After thinking about it more, i’m cooling on the pleo lynch. His position on self preservation is indefensible in most circumstances, but that won’t stop him from trying. And I don’t really see him trying to weasel away from it, despite how much i disagree with it.
unvote Pleonast
On the other hand MentalGuy’s recent vote of Chipacabra reads false to me.
His vote for Chipacabra is as noncommital as a vote can come. He hasn’t given any of his own reasoning. And despite the fact that he’s denied it, his earlier sentence definitely implied that Chipacabra voted for suburban. I think it’s awfully convenient that he decided to limit his decision to two candidates (while still in the middle of the day), and chose the one that seems like the least suspicious vote (not the leading bandwagon, turning up the heat with a me too vote). It feels to me like he’s trying to slip this vote under the radar.
There is also his answer to the question I posed about his statements about PIS and Suburban. What I feel is noticible here is a default assumption that Suburban is town, and that scum would jump on a town PIS. He’s failed to consider that Suburban might be scum, why that oversight?
Plus he smudged me. (This last one is half-joking).
vote MentalGuy
You are right that I should have stated more clearly that the reason I am voting for Chipicabra is that he seemed to be floating an idea to see if it would fly and then voting when it looked safe. I don’t really have any of my own reasoning to add to what Suburban and Cookies said. I felt they made a good case and thought it was at least as good as, if not better than mine.
My sentence implying Chipacabra voted for Suburban is just me sucking at this game. I did not intend to imply that and it would be stupid of me to try to imply that since that is something that a moments look at the evidence would make clear is not the case. I can’t really fault you for the other stuff you said, but saying I intentionally implied that Chipacabra voted for Suburban raises my suspicion of you.
Yes, it does carry an implicit assumption that Suburban is Town and that is something I could definitely be wrong about, but he has not done anything to make me suspect he is scum and the one reason that others say they suspected him of being scum was something that I did not buy into. I haven’t failed to consider the possibility that Suburban may be scum, but I do find it less likely than some other players, including yourself, are scum.
**Vote Count:
Ushimi(3): Chronos, Wolverine, Chipacabra
Pleonast(4): Thesearemypants, Idle, Oneandonly, Meeko
Chipacabra(3): Suburban, Cometothedarkside, Mentalguy
Wolverine(1): Astral
Idle(1): Pleonast
MentalGuy (1): Red Skeezix**
Day ends in 30 hours and 20 minutes, if I’m counting right. Which I’m probably not.
The loudspeaker gave its now familiar crackle.
There was a loud yawn.
“Well, that was fun. Good game. Ended a bit quick, but still. I guess its time to get another planet’s heroes together. Seriously, though? Castiel? Who is he? Wait. The game is on-going? Wow.”
There was a screech while the volume was apparently turned up.
“Wake up, zeroes! We’re totally killing one of you at the end of the Day! Do something interesting! I’m not sitting here with a bunch of dead bodies for my heath. Uh, I shouldn’t have said the part about the bodies. Anyway, get busy!”
Best moderator prod ever.
Apparently ***someone ***thinks we aren’t being talkative enough to suit his fancy. Well, since he’s the one holding the keys to this place, I suppose I can indulge him a bit…
I’ve been looking back at **Pleonast’s **posts, and it seems to me that he’s doing a lot of fishing. Well, not really ‘fishing’ so much as ‘throwing a net out and asking the fish if they’d please jump in it’.
Post 238 (heavily snipped)
Post 240
Post 256
Post 261
Post 355
He starts off by making it clear that there’s a distinction between ‘game-breaking information’ and ‘information that might give one side an advantage’. That’s fine, although he leaves out the part where he explains that it’s going to give Town an advantage, specifially.
Then he comes right out and tries to pull a claim out of Ed.
He stresses the point that it’s OK for town to divulge information, because we can use it even if we don’t know if it’s accurate. He ignores the fact that the Scum already have a head start on determining ‘accuracy of information’ because they already know who’s flat-out lying about being Town. He believes “we have power roles who can evaluate claims”. Well, of course we do. We also have Scum that can evaluate claims, and they’re already one step ahead. While our Town Powers are still trying to figure out “who’s Town and who’s not?”, the Scum can skip that step and move right on to “who’s Vanilla and who’s not?”
And this line really bugs me.
“Rather, I’d advocate that all town players claim right now.”
That would be grand, wouldn’t it. All of the Town players can claim, and then we’ll know exactly who to lynch simply by running through the list of people who didn’t claim. Brilliant!
Obviously I don’t think **Pleonast **was actually suggesting that Town, and only Town, should claim. But that is in fact what he said. And it’s such a strange thing to say that it makes me wonder what he really *meant *to say, and what his actual *intent *was behind it. It wouldn’t have been that hard to simply say “I’d advocate that all players claim right now.” That’s simply calling for a mass claim…nothing new there. It makes me wonder if his mind wasn’t focused specifically on the Town players for some reason.
I’m still happy with my vote on Chipacabra, but I’m quite suspicious of **Pleonast **as well. Yes, his statements are consistent with his general viewpoint on the game (“claims are good because they give us information that we can use”). And it has been pointed out that this is what **Pleonast **generally believes, so the fact that he is saying it doesn’t make him Scum. But it’s also true that just because he generally believes it doesn’t mean that he’s not Scum in this game anyway. It seems to me that he’s trying ‘too hard’ to get information out of people,and that seems Scummy to me.
I’ve been busy and haven’t been back in awhile to respond to this. My gut tells me he is innocent and is making rookie mistakes, but my head is showing me signs of scum based on his activity on Day 1 and the rash of votes for Oredigger (admittedly of which I was a part of). I can explain my gut reaction based on my own experiences and sympathies from International Mafia, but I can’t explain the circumstances.
Why am I voting for Ushi over Pleo? It has to do with order. Once we know for certain Ushi’s alignment, we can better know the group of votes for either. Pleo looks guilty either way but if lynched today is not able to provide any further information about the voting tendencies of others. Even if Pleo is lynched and is scum, we still don’t know about the groups because we don’t yet know Ushi’s alignment.
As for your first point, knowing for certain Ushi’s alignment would be beneficial both ways. If he’s scum, we would assume his scum allies are trying to save him and focus on the Oredigger voting group. This in turn gives a free “Town” pass to those voting against him. If he’s not scum, then scum have no stake in the fight and would be equally spread out amongst everybody. While this result doesn’t narrow the field, it also doesn’t give free passes to several people that could be scum. Sure the first result would be the best, but the other result is still much greater than zero.
I still don’t understand how knowing **ushi’s **alignment is suddenly going to give us all this extra information.
If he’s Scum, then that means we need to look at the late votes on Oredigger. Since all of the votes on **Oredigger **were late, than that there must be Scum among **storyteller, Wolverine, Astral, Ben, pants, Pleonast, **and MentalGuy. That’s almost half of the remaining players (7 out of what will then be 15 living players). How many of these people are supposed to be Scum, according to this theory? Remember, if you pick half of the players at random, you’re going to find half of the Scum among them…
And if **ushi **is Town, then that means there wasn’t a ‘mad rush’ to lynch Oredigger. Why not? The Scum would have already known **ushi **was Town, so if a couple votes got thrown on Oredigger, why not jump on that bandwagon and run that vote count up as well? That way the Town is given two choices, both of them wrong.
Killing **ushi **will definitely tell us one thing: it will tell us **ushi’s **alignment. But I fail to see how it’s going to help us figure out anything else. If you think **ushi **is Scum, then by all means vote for him. But if you’re voting for him because “his death will give us more information”, that’s a bad vote in my opinion.
Trying to consolidate some information that is either useful or worthless.
In order of post volume in the game thread, including number of posts, death flips, claims, and current vote:
**[del]peekercpa (69) - Vanilla Town killed Night 1 **[/del]
Meeko (67) - Currently voting for Pleonast
Suburban Plankton (52) - Currently voting for Chipacabra
TheseAreMyOwnPants (47) - Currently voting for Pleonast
ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (37) - Currently voting for Chipacabra
Idle Thoughts (36) - Claimed Vanilla Town - Currently voting for Pleonast
Chronos (35) - Currently voting for ushimitsudoki
Scuba Ben (31 + 51 posts from the Ed incarnation) - Not currently voting
ushimitsudoki (29) - Claimed Vanilla Town - Not currently voting
Astral Rejection (28) - Currently voting for Wolverine
Pleonast (27) - Currently voting for Idle Thoughts
storyteller0910 (22) - Not currently voting
MentalGuy (17) - Currently voting for Chipacabra
Wolverine (17) - Currently voting for ushimitsudoki
**[del]Oredigger77 (16) - Vanilla Town lynched Day 1 **[/del]
Chipacabra (15) - Currently voting for ushimitsudoki
Red Skeezix (13) - Currently voting for Pleonast
One And Only Wanderers (12) Currently voting for Pleonast
I feel like my personal participation has been on the low side so far, and I’ve had a few chains of NETA’s, so that’s just another point of evidence that this is a damn quiet game so far.
You’re on record as saying you believe Ushi is an inexperienced player and you’ve suggested that you believe he’s most likely innocent. In this post, you say that Pleo looks guilty either way. To paraphrase: Ushi is town, Pleo is scum.
And you’re voting for Ushi.
Do you not see the vast chasm between your vote and what helps town? Who cares if Pleo’s lynch doesn’t give us an optimum amount of information? If you believe he’s scum, there’s no excuse for not voting for him.
What if he’s a scum roleblocker? What if he’s a scum investigator? What if he’s the scum godfather? Wouldn’t the soonest possible lynch be the optimum time to kill someone you believe to be scum? Your logic is maddeningly surreal.
Jesus christ, a free town pass? Why? Do you think the scum vote in neat blocs? And what possible benefit do you see in concluding “whelp, the scum votes musta been equally spread out amongst everybody.” You even admit that this does nothing to narrow the field. As far as I can tell, you were the only person willing to give free passes to several people who could be scum anyway.
I am so incredibly happy with where my vote is right now.
This is not how statistics work.
I apologize for the lack of posting, this week is slamming me hard at work. I am happy with where my vote is. Also, so that my lynching is not a complete debacle:
Cookies, care to confirm or deny?
Should you confirm this, what are the conditions for joining either side?
Second thought: Pleo, who are you?
This seems like a Freddy Krueger type character. Being overwhelmed by your presence, bowing to you… seems sinister. I’d like a full claim from you, after you’ve dropped this info on us.
Wow, that’s an interesting claim. I want to hear cookie’s response.
Assuming Pleo is telling the truth, this part sticks out at me:
It sounds to me like dreamcookie’s message is implying that pleo is also a killer.
Yeah, I definitely want more information on this bombshell. A response from cookies, a full claim from pleo.
Meanwhile, stuff has happened. For now, unvote ushi
Well that’s some shitty luck to go with my really weird role.
Whatever Pleo is and whoever he’s playing for, he is correct about my name, my role, and my current status as a free agent.
What his information doesn’t cover is that my kill is a Night kill and that I don’t know when or under what conditions I’m even allowed to choose sides, should I survive long enough to do so, which I kinda doubt at this point. I assume I won’t win with anyone if I’m killed before I choose sides, which leads us back to the sucky part.
At this point it seems that the only thing I can really do is a) be transparent b) try to negotiate with the Town and offer to make a kill on their behalf tonight c) hope my kill goes through and hits a scum/third party and/or that it attracks any scum blocker so that the Town power roles can act unhindered d) all while hoping that I’ll actually be able to become a Townie before I die in order to be able to share in a win.
To that end, I’d be happy to go after whoever the lynch runner-up is tonight, or whatever the consensus is if other than that.
Technically you’re correct. If we repeat the process enough times, it’s going to work out as I said…but obviously it’s not necessarily going to be the case with every individual sampling.
Do you disagree with my general point, or only my math?
I don’t interpret that phrase as indicating **Pleonast **is a killer. Quoting a bit more of the information:
To me, it’s saying that **Cookies **is currently unaligned, and is a killer, too. The “too” is meant to associate her killing power and her alignment (or lack thereof), not to associate her killing power with Pleonast’s.
I don’t think we can take anything regarding **Pleonast’s **alignment from his reveal. We do need to decide whether or not **Cookies **can be allowed to survive the Day, however. I need to think a bit on that before giving my opinion.
I will join the chorus asking for a full claim from **Pleonast **at this point.