Oh, and Suburban:
Care to explain why you’re suspicious of me?
Sorry…I meant to get back here much sooner, but I had a couple things come up after work, and then the Dr. Seuss game came to an unexpected end and I’ve been amusing myself reading the spoiled thread on that game…
Anyway, my thoughts on **Chronos **from Day 3:
and from Day 5:
**Chronos **pinged me originally because of his apparent obsession with ushi, then for trotting out his voting program only to discount its results (but not before using it to smudge **Astral **and me.
And now he revisits his program. But this time he just gives us the results…of course, not all of the results…just the ones that don’t include him. Or Cookies, for that matter. And after posting the (incomplete) results, he claims “I think that this last case is most likely, followed by the first”, and votes based on that. So after all of the scientific calculations, his vote still comes down to a judgement call?
Chronos, do you actually have a case against me based on the *content *of my posts? Or is it based purely on numbers? It reminds me of your case against ushi, which wasn’t actually about anything **ushi **had posted, either.
I’m not very good analytical breakdown of each individual posts looking for PIS so instead I’ll stay focused on the voting record of Suburban Plankton.
Day 1 - He votes for Idle Thoughts (sound familiar?) and is joined at different times by scum Scuba Ben and Pleonast before they switch to Ushi.
Day 2 - He builds a case against Chipacabra that’s so good, Cookies kills him during Night.
Day 3 - Votes Cookies for killing even though she followed his argument. Unvotes later and switches to storyteller
Day 4 - Day of mourning
Day 5 - Votes Chronos. After Red Skeezix asks everyone to choose between Ben and Cookies, Suburban finally votes for scum in the entire game by switching to Ben. However, this is after Scuba Ben is already mathematically eliminated (up 5:3, would win any tiebreaker, and Cookies still needed to switch her vote)
Day 6 - Votes Idle Thoughts
Going through his posts again, I found this beautiful nugget.
That’s real classy. Smudge someone that tried to help. :rolleyes: My argument had nothing to do with Suburban Plankton’s innocence or guilt. My problem was that Pleonast didn’t have an argument. He was positing metagame possibilities when it didn’t need any based on the conversation in the thread. Reading it again, I still don’t know if scummy Plankton was informed ahead of time about Scuba or not, but it doesn’t matter. He didn’t need that information to make the post he did.
Suburban(2): Wolverine, Chronos
Slight fix to my post. Day 1 - Pleo and Scube Ben switched to vote for Oredigger and not Ushi.
Wolverine,
Reading your workup on me makes me wish I **was **Scum, because I would have played a *brilliant *game…as opposed to the crappy one I’ve actually played as Town.
Your argument seems to bear a striking resemblance to Chronos’, in that it’s pretty much devoid of any commentary on the content of my posts. Do you have any argument to make against me other than ‘I voted for the wrong people’?
I admit my voting record in this game is ‘poor’. But then again, the whole Town’s record has been pretty abysmal, or else we wouldn’t be in the pickle we are now.
In fact, if you just want to look at votes, you’ll see that I voted for 1 Scum out of 7 total votes cast (14%), which is well above the cumulative total for all players, who have voted for Scum 11 times out of 111 votes (9.9%). So in perspective, my voting record isn’t all that bad.
Of course, that doesn’t really mean anything, because ‘who voted for who’ isn’t really good criteria for finding Scum, especially this late in a lopsided game. It’s fine data to use to *support *an argument, but you aren’t presenting any argument here other than the votes themselves.
My analysis of Wolverine, specifically his votes. Not just *who *he voted for, but *why *he said he voted, and *what *I think about them…
Day 1. Post 472 - votes **Pleonast **because he won’t take back his vote on **me **regarding the ‘pronoun issue’
Day 1, Post 500 - votes **story **because ‘he asked for it’…apparently by wondering why **Wolverine **was voting for **Pleo **instead of him, since they made the same case against me
Day 1, Post 511 - votes **Oredigger **because **story’s **vote ‘made a lot of sense’…even though he thought story was Scum just 2 posts earlier
Day 2, Post 632 - votes **ushi **because it will give us more information, even though he thinks **Pleonast **is Scummier. But he tells us “If Pleonast looks to be tied at the end of the day with someone other than Ushi, then I’ll switch my vote to Pleonast.”
Day 2, Post 753 - votes Pleonast. His is the last vote of the day on Pleonast, and makes the vote Pleonast-8, Chipacapbra-3. Not exactly ‘breaking a tie’ here…
Day 3, Post 838 - votes **ushi **again, for the same bad reason as on Day 2
Day 5, Post 1123 - votes Meeko. He actually makes a case here, and I thought it was a good one at the time, but it turns out that it wasn’t.
Day 5, Post 1197 - votes **SP **(that’s me!). Not because he thnks I’m Scum, necessarily, but because he doesn’t get a “warm fuzzy” about me, but he does about the rest of the players. He even says “Consider this a placeholder vote until I feel more confident about someone else.”. He does make a point about my vote on Chronos, but he completely misrepresents my reasoning.
Day 5, post 1209 - He switches his vote to Ben, just like **Cookies **and **I **would do shortly. In the same post, he again misrepresents my vote on Chronos, after I had explained to him exactly where he got it wrong.
Day 6, Post 1274 - he votes for me. In this post he misrepresents my case against Idle. Actually, he repeats what he had said earlier in Post 1261. Of course, in that post he notes that I “correctly demonstrated the flaws in his [Idle’s] defense”, but now he seems to have forgotten that and uses his misinformation to vote for me anyway.
Day 7, Post 1299 - he votes for **me **again, without comment. He does follow up in Post 1303 with his analysis of my votes, which I have already addressed. He does, however, also find time to misrepresent me again, this time regarding my vote on **Cookies **on Day 3. My vote on her had nothing whatsoever to do with her target, it was the fact that she killed at all…something which I made abundantly clear at the time, but which he has chosen to overlook here.
Here is the analysis I gave in Post 930, near the end of Day 3:
I think Wolverine got a free ride for his play early on because he’s new. He certainly got leeway from me on Day 3. But I’m not going to give him that leeway now.
vote Wolverine
Right now, I think **Wolverine **and **Chronos **are the most likely to be Scum. I will be taking another look at **Astral **and Cookies Today; I doubt I will change my vote at this point, but it’s always possible something will turn up that I overlooked before…
And I’ll point out that it’s still possible that we’re wrong about the game makeup, and that **Cookies **is laughing herself half to death because she’s ‘confirmed Town’…if that’s the case, then **Chronos **is her Scum-buddy, and they probably deserve to win because they’ve played brilliantly to set things up this way. I have no evidence at the moment to support this theory, but it keeps niggling away at the back of my brain…
**Suburban(2): Wolverine, Chronos
Wolverine(1): Suburban
This Day ends tomorrow at 6:45 PM Eastern.**
I’m not absent. I’m still redrawing and considering. Bigger post coming later today.
On Cookies:
I mostly get the feeling that **Cookies **is Town. Probably because for the most part she makes arguments that are similar to my own. Of course, most of my own arguments have been flawed, so I’m not sure how much I should count that point in her favor. Are we a couple of like-thinking Townies who both happen to be making poor decisions, or is she Scum who is either subtly influencing me or following my lead (or both) to lynch Townies?
As I said before, my biggest issue with **Cookies **concerns her Night Kill on Night 2. I felt that she had ‘promised’ not to kill in exchange for avoiding a Day 2 lynch, and subsequently broke that ‘promise’. And I felt that in her position, the most logical thing to do when the choice was presented to her was to side with Scum. I still hold those two points against her, but the rest of her behavior has been consistent with her stated decision.
And then there’s the issue of her current state of ‘Confirmed Townie’. This is based entirely on the assumption that the makeup of this game is identical to the makeup of the Harry Potter game. That idea was originally proposed by Red Skeezix, I believe, (unless it was Meeko; I know it was one of our Masons) so it wasn’t put forth as an attept to decieve. It has since been championed by Chronos, and has been supported by all of the evidence that has come to light so far. So it seems to be a very reasonable assumption, but is it worth betting the Town on it? And if the assumption is wrong, then it doesn’t tell us *anything *about Cookies’ alignment, so in that respect it’s a ‘null tell’.
So taking the ‘game state’ argument out of the equation for a moment, I’m not completely sold on Cookies, but I’m leaning Town.
There was one set of comments from **Cookies **back on Day 3 that confused me at the time, and still confuses me on reread now:
Post 951-“Another thing I find interesting in all of this, is that out of all of the information I have provided, the portion about my allegedly choosing sides last Night is apparently being taken as gospel. I don’t believe one person has seen fit to express doubt of that, whereas everything else is still being held in various degrees of doubt.”
Post 955-“It is merely an observation. I did in fact choose sides last Night, and I chose Town. My use of alleged was for all y’all’s benefit.”
Was it just frustration speaking? Was it WIFOM? Was it just ‘a bit of fun’?
If you take every 3rd word from the first post you get* “I in this out the have portion allegedly last apparently as don’t person fit doubt whereas is held degrees”*…which could be a complex coded message of some sort…but probably isn’t.
On Astral:
I just get a Town vibe from Astral. Most of the game he and I seem to have been on the same wavelength. That probably explains why Chronos’ program has us joined at the hip. I’m not doing a bigger writeup on him because it’s just going to consist of mainly “**Astral **said xxx, and I pretty much agree with him”.
It’s possible that I’m just extremely susceptible to his Powers of Suggestion, but if that’s the case I’m not alone…
It would be nice to have a bit more discussion here Today. Assuming we’re at 3/2 right now, the 3 Town votes need to be unanimous in order for us to have a chance, and that’s not likely if we don’t discuss them.
Upon preview, it occurs to me that we don’t have to be unanimous; the town could win on a 2/2/1 split vote, assuming we have the tiebreaker. Of course, right now, I get lynched in the case of such a tie, so make of that what you will…
Suburban, what do you mean, I’m ignoring the content of your posts? I’m focusing on the most important part of the content. Anyone can say anything, but votes have consequences, and are therefore much more meaningful. Now, I’m sure some folks can get useful information out of the less meaningful parts of posts, and I try to do that, too, but frankly, I suck at it. So I focus on what I am good with, which is the hard data.
And yes, I only considered the cases where I’m Town, because in fact, I’m Town. Surely you don’t expect that I’m going to consider voting against myself?
Of course it’s worth betting the Town on. We have to bet the Town on something; can you think of anything we can be more certain of? I mean, what’s the alternative explanation: That Pleonast deliberately outed his Scum-buddy as someone to watch, on the off chance that we wouldn’t lynch her for it and that evidence would eventually come up (and of which Scum must have been ignorant at the time) to make us believe that we were re-playing Harry Potter when we weren’t?
At this point it depends on how much you believe the setup is aligned with Harry Potter as to how confirmed you think I am. If it is the same setup, the game would be over already if I’d picked scum. That is my understanding at least, sans mathematical details.
Suburban and I have had some synergies of apparent analysis, but I consider that a null tell with the confirmation bias caveat that it could be well-played scum drafting or catalyzing town-on-town suspicions. I feel the same way about any synergies between Suburban and Astral.
Leading me back to my justification for my early vote on Suburban back on Day 2, I believe. If memory serves, he was the first person to express doubt that I would have chosen Town. More confirmation bias perhaps, but it is just the subtle sort of thing that scum would exploit in a heartbeat. Guaranteed to derail at least some conversation away from most of the game to focus instead on the slivers of information that would have been influencing my decision and trying guess which way I’d zig or zag accordingly. It isn’t the only thing he talked about, but it is a seed that Scum would definitely want planted and nurtured.
My observation comment about people not questioning the information I’d provided as to when my choice occured was indeed just an observation. I had a half-baked notion that perhaps some of the people apparently confident that it was true were the scum sitting on the boards that I had not been given access to, because they’d assume I wasn’t lying and I hadn’t arrived over there. Like I said, half-baked. Even if it were true it is hard to prove a distinction between the motivation for believing me, whether it is based on hard evidence (scum) or a gut-check (town).
The problem with your approach is that you treat all ovtes as being equal, when in fact they are not. For example:
[ul]
[li]A vote first thing on Day 1 is less meaningful that a vote midway through Day 3 (in most, though not all, cases)[/li][li]Placing the first vote on a person, and then defending it all Day long, resulting in a Scum lynch, is more meaningful that making a ‘me too’ vote on that same Scum late in the Day after the lynch has already been decided.[/li][/ul]
Just the fact that “Person A voted for Person B” only tells half the story. You appear to be purposely ignoring the other half.
It would make your case more complete if you were to include the cases which include you. You must consider yourself in your *own *calculations, if only to validate that your results are meaningful. If your calculations were to show overwhelmingly that you were the most likely Scum left in the game, that would suggest that they are wrong (or that you are in fact Scum). So I assume you ran the numbers on yourself as a check. Why not share them with the rest of us? You may be 100% certain of your alignment, but the rest of us aren’t.
I actually agree with you here, but I’m not as certain as you are. But one thing that I am certain of is that Scum will do *anything *if they think it will help them win, so I’m not prepared to take *anything *on faith. I mostly asked the question as a rhetorical, since as I explained in my post my decision Today is the same regardless of the answer.
Actually, my approach does not treat all votes as equal: A vote in a close race will end up getting more weight than a one-off that doesn’t effect the outcome, for instance (this is an emergent property of the way that it considers everyone’s votes at once, not individually). Now, I do recognize that I don’t use information about when on a given day a vote was cast, and I acknowledge that that’s a shortcoming of my program. If I had a way to meaningfully and objectively process that information, I would. But so far I haven’t figured out how to do that.
Do you not think that a Townie would be genuinely interested in your decision at that point? I’m not the only person who expressed surprise at your decision, and I’m not the only person who said “if it were me, I would have chosen differently” (see **storyteller’s **posts 820, 833, and 931 for a start). And your memory serves you wrong in this case; it was actually **story **in Post 820 who was the first to doubt your choice. I had asked you why you chose to kill, and why you chose **Chip **in particular, but I didn’t comment on your alignment choice until later.
Legitimate townie interest in trying to figure it out one way or another doesn’t decrease the scum interest in promoting the perspective that it was more likely that I chose scum than town. You are correct that I was mis-attributing that statement of Storyteller’s though, my bad.
Pleonast’s reveal of Cookies was a game changer. I had unvoted Ushi considerably earlier than when Pleo had an overwhelming majority. Suburban said at the time that he doesn’t like it when people unvote if new information doesn’t directly affect one’s argument. Two things I get from this. 1. If we have strong evidence that someone might be a power role (scum or town), then shouldn’t we be allowed to take time think? By unvoting Ushi, I’m signalling that I’m willing to think about the situation instead of sticking with a bad argument (not that I thought it was bad). 2. Why did you make this statement? It reads to me like you were trying to scare those of us that unvoted Ushi away from Pleonast and back to Ushi.
At least I’m consistent in my foolishness.
And Suburban didn’t understand my response. Chronos still placed value on the program; he placed warnings and stipulations because he wasn’t using it to be the sole arbiter of guilt. People post all the time about what they “feel” or “think” about somebody’s guilt. People often post incorrect things about townies. But it helps because it gives us more perspective on the game, even if it is wrong. The same is true for Chronos’ program. It is something that gives us more info, right or wrong, and we can see where it comes from (Chronos posts the program as well).
I will say this about Scuba Ben; I voted for him before he was guaranteed to lose, unlike somebody else I know.
I voted for Suburban because I was already suspicious of him (vote Day 5), he seemed to be doing most of the work in trying to lynch Idle, and Idle had voted for Suburban.
I should have excluded Suburban from the “people” that were creating evidence from Idle’s conversations with scum. That was more Cookies and Astral. Astral said “This could not feel more rehearsed if they had tried. If scummy Scuba were honestly trying to bus a townie, I think he would have put more than 10 seconds of effort into it. This reeks of scummyness…” Cookies quote was “reading that exchange it really seems like they are mutually trying to diffuse the cases against each other.” Both of those presuppose Idle was scum (because of his bad case against Cookies) and so therefore his conversations look scummy.
I know what your justification was; I just find it odd that Suburban put so much heat on Cookies for killing Chipacabra when Suburban was the one that originally made the case he was scum. Instead of being sorry for helping to aim the gun that killed town, Suburban is upset that she actually pulled the trigger. This seems to me that he was trying to direct attention away from himself and his incorrect argument against town.
I just don’t know. I’ve read off and on all day, and nothing is jumping out at me. I’ve been so confident in the past, and I was wrong on three out of five cases, with one still undecided. My only success has been Scuba_Ben, and really, I was bound to eventually get one right.
One thing I’ve picked up on during my reread has been a certain degree of defensiveness from Suburban Plankton on the subject of (now known) scum. It’s subtle, and nothing I can really directly point to. But I noticed, time and again, little jabs or questions at the motivations or cases of people taking a good look at (now known) scum. He doesn’t really do the same thing when people make cases against folks we now know are town.
I have my misgivings about Chronos. Some of what he’s said has rubbed me the wrong way. But there’s nothing to directly point at, nothing I can really sink my teeth into. So he’s not gonna be my vote.
Wolverine, I was very critical of earlier in the game. He’s the undecided case I was talking about above. He’s hit me as pretty townie since, so I’m not feeling a vote on him right now.
What’s really killing me right now is that I find SP’s case on Chronos to be pretty compelling. But I also find Wolverine’s cases on SP to be pretty good.
So I just don’t know right now.
Vote Suburban Plankton.
I’m gonna sleep on this, and revisit my vote tomorrow.