I’m sorry, but anybody that thinks Biden has it in the bag is silly. Sillier than the Hillary supporters, because at least they didn’t have precedent to look back to.
AshturaGuest
“I’m sorry, but anybody that thinks Biden has it in the bag is silly. Sillier than the Hillary supporters, because at least they didn’t have precedent to look back to.”
I agree. And with chappachula1 too. If the voter turnout is low for any reason, then Trump might just squeak in. I am predicting < 100 EVs. I hope I am wrong, perhaps Biden will win by a landslide. But that might create problems of a different kind if the Dems then think that they can walk on water.
I think something that gets drastically understated is Trump has conducted himself as if he was elected in a landslide.
He got in by 70,000 votes across three states. He carried some Wisconsin with fewer votes than Romney got in 2012 (Romney lost the state). He got 3,000,000 fewer votes nationally.
I would not say Obama got elected by a landslide. But his margin of victory both nationally in votes and the electoral college looks like a landslide compared to Trump. Yet Obama conducted himself in a manner showing respect. Things like that matter.
There’s a whole chunk of the electorate who were repulsed by Hillary but even more repulsed by Trump so sat out in 2016 thinking Hillary would get in without them. I don’t think those people are taking their chances this year. Particularly when Biden is not a boogeyman kind of character. GOP down-ballots tend to focus on Pelosi, AOC and Ilhan Omar in their attack ads than Biden.
Regardless of the margin, one difference I’ve noticed that should help is how Bernie Sanders is handling this election. My Facebook news feed shows almost daily posts by Bernie encouraging people to vote for Biden / dump Trump. Back in 2016 I don’t recall Bernie supporting Hillary nearly as enthusiastically as he is doing with Biden this time around. Whether this will help Biden, and by how much, I don’t know, but it seems to be a good sign.
Very glad to hear it!
The election is about 90 days away, and more people will pay attention to politics after Labor Day. This analysis does not take into account the three presidential debates, problems with mail-in ballots, armed people showing up at polling stations to “protect” (intimidate) people and other voting access issues, possibilities that Biden will make too many gaffes or Trump will develop a tongue infection (when Trump shuts up, his support goes up), the possibility that Trump will lie about a new vaccine and fool enough people, the possibility that the economy will improve, the possibility that numbers will tighten (which is typical), the possibility of war, and so forth.
Political memories are short. Four years ago I went to bed thinking Hillary Clinton would win a close election. I woke up to find out I was wrong, and that blow to the head (so to speak) was hard enough to ensure I don’t make that mistake again! Four years before that Romney supporters swore up and down that the polls were wrong and that Romney would definitely win, and they were wrong. People were talking about the “permanent Democratic majority”.
Just as they once did about the “permanent Republican majority.” I remember George Will writing a column to that effect right after GHWB won in 1988; it was, after all, the third Republican presidential victory in a row.
And I remember going to sleep afraid she wasn’t going to pull it off, it was too close and never trust Florida. 
If it was a normal year with these poll numbers its clear that a Biden landslide is the most likely scenario. But this isn’t a normal year. The factor that will determine who wins the election will be the group that successfully gets out the vote despite Covid. If Florida voters support Biden over Trump by a margin of 54 to 46, but the Virus prevent 25% of Democrats from voting vs only 10% of Republicans, Trump wins.
Republicans have a structural advantage in this area, first because fewer of their voters believe that Covid presents a danger, and second because rural voting areas where Republicans vote will have smaller crowds and shorter lines than urban areas where Democrats vote. The Republicans know that this is their only chance of holding on to power so they are doing everything that they can to exacerbate this effect, both by trying to convince their voters that Covid isn’t a real danger and by making voting as dangerous as possible.
So guessing who is going to win this election is like guessing who will win the Tyson vs McNeely fight after hearing rumors that the mob is betting heavily on McNeely.
McTurtle and company have absolutely guaranteed that the economy will not improve. And I predict there will be no debates. Biden might be gaffe-prone, but get Trump up there and his dementia will become painfully obvious. Even on twitter, he cannot put a whole sentence together. Put a question to him that he is not prepared for and he will dissolve into incoherence. I think this whole business about wanting a fourth debate is to create an excuse for ducking the whole thing.
Could there be a vaccine by Nov. 3? Not a thoroughly tested one. A war? Could be. That’s the only thing I can think of that might change the calculus.
Well, these two MAGAts will certainly be voting for him even if he hires Spetsnaz thugs to keep the wrong type of voter (those registered Democrat) away from the polls.
Hell, he’s already hired Blackwater thugs to crack heads in Portland and other cities he bears a grudge towards.
“There are tons of Republican voters just itching for an excuse not to vote for Biden”
Though I’m an outside observer (Canadian) ISTM that this statement makes little sense. In reality there are tons of Republican voters who will not vote for Biden because they’re republicans, and for no other reason.
I’ve seen all sorts of analyses saying that Trump won’t win, but I fear that he will.
It’s because they don’t want to take responsibility for their own choices, and need someone else to blame for when they vote for Trump.
“I didn’t want to vote for Trump, but you made me!”
Yes, we heard a lot of that on this very messageboard. I’m not going to go through three years worth of posts to find an example but there was plenty of “If only Hillary had done X or not done Y, or if only the Democrats had just picked someone else, or if only the Democrats hadn’t hurt my feelings by saying something that was true but which I was pretending wasn’t, I might have voted for them but…”
Trump’s election was the fault of Trump voters. The whole “It was the Democrats’ job to stop the Republicans from destroying the country” thing is comic-book villain logic.
I believe that this is absolutely true of undecideds (stupid undecideds I might add) and the same thing could happen because some think Biden is boring and uninspiring.
Anyone remember this thread? Nothing’s changed sadly.
Except now things are far, far worse and Trump could still win.
My apologies - that thread was from Oct 2012.
“Nobody’s ever seen anything like this. The closest thing was in 1917 they say, right? The Great Pandemic — and it certainly was a terrible thing where they lost anywhere from 50 to 100 million people. It probably ended the Second World War. All the soldiers were sick. It was a terrible situation.”
The problem isn’t the Democrats. The problem is the “stupid”. The bar has somehow been set such that the Democrats must run a flawless campaign with a flawless candidate or else the “stupid undecideds” will vote for the grossly incompetent and blatantly corrupt Republican alternative - and then blame it on the Democrats. You can’t fix the sort of thinking that decides that because one candidate does ‘bad thing X’ we should vote for the other candidate despite that candidate doing ‘bad thing X’ on a far greater scale. It’s like watching someone climb into a tiger cage to avoid being bitten by a chihuahua.
Consider Sam Stone’s “word salad” point. Trump has put forth an endless stream of absolute incoherent nonsense that puts any of Biden’s gaffes in the shade - oh but if Joe gaffes, it’ll be his fault that people chose the guy who is far worse by the same metric! And millions of Americans accept that logic.
To be sure, the Democrats need to fight back against the rampant right-wing propaganda that encourages this mode of thinking; the GOP are masters of it and the Dems have a lot of catching up to do. But just because the Democrats are behind on style doesn’t take away from the fact that they are way ahead on substance.
FYI, FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast is out this morning, and it gives Trump a 29% chance of winning the election. Deja Vu: this is almost exactly the chances they gave Trump in 2016, and he won.
Whoever is complacent about Biden winning (hi, OP!), stop it.