Who will vote for Trump?
A. Deplorables. Trailer trash that likes when he says “shithole countries” and all the other nonsense.
B. The far right base. Pro life, NRA types
C. Conservatives that might dislike him and his behavior, but are quietly enjoying Conservative Judges being appointed. Tax policy, deregulations, etc.
Well, my concern level is enough that, for the first time ever, I have donated to a political campaign. It was only $5, but I trust that Joe and Kamala can put it to good use.
I contributed to a political campaign for the first time in 2016, by sending $50 to Hillary Clinton’s Presidential campaign. Unfortunately, I’m sure I contributed far too late to do any good. I didn’t contribute until a few days before the election when I started panicking at the late breaking poll results right after Comey’s late-October press conference.
I tried to make up for that this election cycle. I’ve already contributed much more much sooner this time to Biden’s campaign as well to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). I’ll probably send both of them some more money this weekend.
I don’t think you’d really want to go that far back either. The world where that system worked is no more and was falling apart anyway. Besides, it is entirely plausible that those Wise Party Elders would still choose someone who is superbly competent and technically right on every question but still turns off the voters. Or put forward a good looking, well-spoken, personable surefire-winner empty suit to be used as a figurehead, and then turns on them.
Sam_Stone does have a point, which I have seen in lower-level political campaigns: the environment to seek elected office these days is deterrent to serious, decent people who are not “career politicians”. OTOH, for these sorts of offices I do want someone who has a good idea of what it’s about and who’ll put some passion into it, so I have absolutely no objection to “career politicians” as long as they show that they are still committed to the public interest.
I dunno, when listing what are the drivers for Trump voters, shoudl he be under an obligation to go on record explicitly condemning them?
I have a related question that I hope isn’t off-topic. Early in this thread, I saw a response that I’ve seen in many, many threads in the past four years. It goes something like this: “Conservative posts get hammered here by all the liberal posters, so I am/we are out of here.” Nobody likes to get hammered for a post, but if conservatives have the courage of their convictions, why not continue fighting what they see as the good fight?
Serious question.
It would be nice, even if NOT compulsory. And were he simply a Nate Silver type, coming into the thread to report some facts, it would be a little rude of people to demand that he share his feelings about those facts. But it’s not realistic to expect Dopers to not infer that he, a fellow Doper of long standing, has some definite feelings and make some educated guesses as to what they are. ISTM that if Sam_Stone objects to having his feelings inaccurately characterized, his best bet would be to state them explicitly.
The obvious answer is that defending DJT, to an informed hostile audience, is hard work.
Suppose that the candidates for President, in 2016, had been Harvey Weinstein and Ted Cruz. I don’t think many loyal Democrats would have been defending their convictions on right of center internet boards. Just too difficult.
Sorry I said it was obvious in my last post, but too late to edit!
I’ve defended my convictions (usually liberal, though I’m not a Dem) on social media posts where the only respondents are far-right-wing extremists. If they all go off-the-charts vitriolic and don’t use either logic or data to support their points, I disengage because that’s not really a discussion. If, however, they’re critical but willing to discuss and back up their assertions with research from reasonably unbiased sources (not, say, Breitbart or the like), of course I stick around.
We seem to have lost civil discourse in this country, and I’m convinced the future of the country depends on getting it back.
The conservatives I see here who get hammered most are those who cite unreliable, extremist sites. And no, the cites don’t have to be from liberal sources.
Excellent question. I refrain from posting many times because I know that a dozen liberals will jump all over me and demand all sorts of ridiculous clarifications, often accusing me of things that I never came even remotely close to saying. It’s exhausting. And since I know that there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of changing any minds, I generally decide that it just isn’t worth the effort.
Go to the bbq pit. Click on troll mart. Trying to get this started.
A starting point when determining what a Trump voter in 2020 looks like is to look at what a Trump voter looked like in 2016. The following groupings are based of an article from the Voter Study Group.
In 2016, Trump voters could be roughly categorized into 5 groups:
1. “Staunch conservatives” at 31%. This probably includes you bible-thumpers/evangelicals, single issue voters and the like. Some of them may not vote for Trump in 2020 but I doubt many of those would still vote for Biden. Still the biggest part of Trump’s current base I suspect, although might have been surpassed by the racists.
2. “Free marketeers” at 25%. Fiscal conservatives, libertarians, greedy assholes/psychopaths, you get the picture. Since this probably includes the most educated and “civilized” (former) Trump supporters, you get the most bleed off from this group, but obviously not the more extreme adherents. Some of them may even vote for Biden, having come around.
3. “Anti-elites” at 19%. The populist crowd. The most likely group to vote for someone like Bernie Sanders (in 2016). Could go either way, depending on how personally disgusted they are with Trump and how much they loath a career politician like Biden.
4. “American Preservationists” at 20%. The racists. Probably the second biggest group in Trump’s current base.
5. “Disengaged” at 5%. Low information voters. If you’re an optimist, many of them would have learned their lesson and now support Biden, but the current election will still have a new group like this that is voting for the first time in 2020. The newer ones might still have a chance to be persuaded to voting for Biden if they actually cared about politics enough to be exposed to him. That being said, it has been much more difficult to be politically disengaged in the past 4 years them in all of Obama’s 8, especially in the last year, I would think. Interesting to see how big this group is this time around.
Trump voters in 2016 were not just some monolithic entity, so they probably won’t be one in 2020, even if some of the subgroupings contract, or the group as a whole contracts to some degree.
Interesting info — thanks.
No problem. The article does mention that a few things that all the groups had generally in common: dislike/distrust of Clinton (this seemed to have been a major unifying factor), fear of Muslims (based on their support for the Travel Ban in 2017), fear of illigal immigrants (to some degree, Anti-Elites were much more cordial towards them, for example) and personal economic anxiety.
What he has shown the world is that he is a fascist nincompoop, that the USA is an imperial power intent on destabilizing other nations’ economies. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332623631_US-China_Trade_War_and_Its_Global_Impacts
He declared my country to be a security risk and started a trade war against us, which he lost.
Presently he has started another trade war against over aluminum, not realizing that aluminum is a world commodity in strong demand, so we’ll just sell elsewhere.
He threatened to cut funding to the World Health Organization, but that went nowhere. I guess he was too wrapped up in ensuring that as many Americans as possible died of covid-19.
The USA is still our primary trading partner, but one thing we have learned from Trump is that the USA is not our friend and absolutely must not be trusted. Fortunately over the decades we have been working on trade agreements throughout the world, including CETA with the EU (and serious discussions about joining the EU) and CPTPP (trans pacific), among many others. Our export, import and trade to GDP rations dwarf those of the USA, for we are a trading nation, and we will continue to be a trading nation despite the big bubba south of us thinking that he is the boss of the world when really all he is is a destabilizing embuggerance. List of countries by trade-to-GDP ratio - Wikipedia
So no, Trump certainly has not shown us who’s boss. All he is is a very foul smell that wafts across the border occasionally.
Gee, maybe Tim_R.Mortis and other skittish Repubs have a point.
If the USA comes up with a vaccine but does not support its production and use throughout the world, it will be time to start cancelling USA corporations’ patents – isolate the USA from world trade.
Because it’s a lot of hard work for little or no payoff. Such a conservative would have to expend a great deal of time and energy, endure a considerable amount of abuse, and in return, get what?..persuade only one liberal to switch sides, or perhaps see no liberals change their minds at all.
It’s not a worthwhile energy-to-results ratio.
A critical examination of your own beliefs, of course. If you post an argument and other posters point out that your sources are unreliable and your arguments are invalid, then maybe the takeaway shouldn’t be that you’d get a better response at your preferred echo chamber.
I’m sorry to hear this. I understand that this is what you have learned from Trump, but he does not speak for all of us here in the USA.