The Eagles of clinch a spot. The Giants, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and St. Louis have not, yet all these other teams could have a better record than the Eagles by the end of the season.
In fact, the Giants can do no worse than tie them and the beat them twice this season. I know there is some kind of formula. What is it?
What I meant to say was: The Eagles already clinched a spot.
And: The Giants can do no worse than tie them and they beat them twice.
Preview is my friend.
If you thought that the Supreme Court opinion of Bush v. Gore was confusing, behold the NFL playoff tiebreakers
The Giants are 10-4 and the Eagles are 10-5. The Giants can finish one game behind the Eagles and lose the division (11-5 to 10-6)
But this still doesn’t explain how the Eagles have already clinched.
The worst the Eagles can finish is 10-6. If the Giants finish 10-6, the Giants win the NFC East.
So, the Eagles go into the wild card pool. There are four other teams that can finish 10-6: Tampa Bay, Detroit, New Orleans and St. Louis. Of the last two, one will win the NFC West.
So, that would toss the Eagles in with Tampa Bay and Detroit and the loser of St. Louis/New Orleans.
The first tiebreaker for multiple teams tied for a wild card is conference record. The Eagles went 8-4 and that’s likely going to be better than either Tampa Bay or Detroit in the conference. Both teams have 4 losses in the conference and Tampa Bay would have to have 5 conference losses to finish 10-6.
The NFL Offices figure this stuff out and I don’t think they make too many mistakes in this area.
I don’t think the NFL made a mistake. I’m trying to figure out how the Eagles have already clinched when none of the other teams mentioned have.
I know there is a formula. The NFL link that you provided shows the first tiebreaking rule is head-to-head won-lost record.
If the Eagle lose the last 2 remaining games and they will still make the playoffs, no matter what the Giants, Tampa Bay, St. Louis or New Orleans do. O.K., I got that part.
How is it then that the Giants, Tampa Bay nor New Orleans has clinched a playoff berth yet? You gotta help me, Bob. You seem to be the only one trying to answer me.
I think what you’re asking comes down to this:
A division winner automatically goes to the playoffs, regardless of the record and how it compares to other teams records.
The Eagles and Giants are currently battling to win the NFC East division.
If the Giants win the division, they’re in the playoffs. The Eagles will get in on a wildcard, because even if their record ties with another team’s record for the wildcard spot, they win the tiebreaker (which could be head-to-head results, conference record, or whatever, on BobT’s link).
If the Eagles win the division, they’re in the playoffs. The Giants aren’t necessarily so lucky, though. They don’t fare so well as the Eagles in the forementioned tiebreakers.
Clearer?
The Eagles have only one more game left, against the Bungles. They’re off this coming weekend.
And, the real reason they’ve clinched a playoff spot already, ahead of the New Jersey Giants? They deserved it.
Go Eagles!!!
The giants are in great shape. There is one weird scenario that has a 1 in 512 chance of knocking them out of the playoffs, but all they have to do is win one game and they clinch the division.
You’re right, it looks like a paradox, but it isn’t really: for figuring clinching possibilities, the number of losses doesn’t matter as much as the number of wins. Both teams have won ten games, so the worst record either can finish with is 10-6.
There are five teams who could match or better that record. We looked at the WORST possible record for the Giants and the Eagles. Now you have to look at the BEST possible record for these other teams. Saints, Rams, and Bucs can all finish better than that. (So will the Vikings.) That leaves Detroit. Which can finish, at best, 10-6. That’s if they win their last two games.
If the Eagles and Lions end up tied at 10-6, the Eagles win the tiebreaker…
But if the Giants and Lions end up 10-6, the Lions win the tiebreaker.
And if they all end up 10-6, then the Eagles are champs by tiebreaker and the Lions are wild card by tiebreaker.
Presumably, the same applies if some of the other teams also end up 10-6. Bottom line, the Eagles are in and the Giants are very nearly in also–for them not to make it they have to lose twice, the Lions have to win twice, the Eagles have to win their last game, and none of the three other contenders cn go 0-2 the rest of the way. Yeah, they’re basically in, and I’d rather have the chance to go 12-4 than be mathematically in at this stage.
>>If the Eagle lose the last 2 remaining games and they will still make the playoffs, no matter what the Giants, Tampa Bay, St. Louis or New Orleans do. O.K., I got that part. <<
The Eagles can’t lose their last 2 regular season games because they have only one left. It is weird to see a second place team denoted as having clinched a berth but the team above them not having any mention. I wonder if this has ever happened but I am sure that the whole bye week situation has helped alot in this regard. This is what I found:
If Tampa beats St. Louis next week and wins its last game, Detroit wins its final two games, and New Orleans beats Atlanta this week and then loses to St. Louis in the last week, we have this:
Minn. Wins Div.
Tampa 11-5
Detroit 10-6
New Orleans 10-6
St. Louis 10-6.
New Orleans wins their division because of better division record. Therefore we have, in contention for the three wildcard spots, Tampa, Detroit, and St. Louis.
If Philly finishes at 10-6, they will still be assured of a spot because they have the tiebreaker against Detroit. That’s all they will need. If New York finishes 10-6, and Philly wins the division with an 11-5 record, then New York is out because Tampa beats them on record (11-5 to 10-6), St. Louis beats them in the head to head tiebreaker and Detroit beats them head to head.
If the Giants lose this week, then they will be tied with Philly, who has a bye this week, and this discrepancy will be taken care of.
See,
That was relatively easy, wasn’t it. This is actually one of the easier years for figuring out playoff spots. Six of the 12 spots are already sewn up and the AFC will likely have its full complement of teams by next Sunday. They will just be trying to put them into order.
The NFC will come down to the last week however.
Overall, it’s a lot easier to figure out NFL tiebreakers than to explain the BCS.
Thanks guys. I think the thing that was really throwing me off was that the Eagles have played one more game than I thought. And the fact that the tie-breaker would not necessarily be between the Giants and the Eagles.