Look at it this way. A belief is something a person thinks should exist. A cause is a plan for making that thing exist.
How do you go from the belief that only right wingers should be allowed to hold office to a plan to make sure only right wingers hold office?
If the cause is disenfranchising people, let’s face it, we don’t need a third party for that. The Republicans are on top of it.
Okay, this is a cause. If there was a strong streak on untapped isolationism in the country, this would be something a politicians could ride to office.
But I question whether there is such a feeling out there. Sure, a lot of people may have a vague distrust of foreigners but I don’t feel it’s all that strong as a motivating force. American membership in international organizations doesn’t seem like a “in your face” problem to people.
I think Mike Lindell would be perfect. He’s already proven his ability to agree with everything Trump says and does and can continue Pence’s stance of standing with an adoring look on his face whenever Trump pontificates.
Doubtful, because VP’s main value is derived from running the Senate (even Trump recognizes this, see Mike Pence). Mr. Lindell’s skillset doesn’t seem to include rules lawyering, consensus building, or herding.
The Vice President doesn’t “run the Senate” – the rules layering, consensus building, and herding is done by Senate party leaders. The VP’s sole responsibility is to break ties.
Unfortunately they do represent a majority of Republicans who vote in primaries. I used to think, 60 years ago, that primaries were good for democracy, but now I realize that they mostly empower the most extreme part of a party. Because they’re who vote.
I cannot see Trump forming a third party. It requires far too much organization to get on the ballot. Not only is TFG incapable of that, he seems to be incapable of choosing competent people to do it for it. Cf. the constant churn in his cabinet.
But he presumably would be really good at fluffing pillows for President Trump.
I don’t feel Trump picked Pence for his Senate experience. I think Trump realized he needed to get conservative Christian voters to support him and picking Pence was the bone he threw them. Which means Pence stopped being useful to Trump after the 2016 election and Trump started treating him (and the Christian voters) the same way he treats anyone and anything else that isn’t useful to him.
But he wouldn’t have to. He could just join, say, the Constitution Party (which I’m guessing would love to have him). Or maybe the Christian Liberty Party (which is a splinter group). Whatever party he joined would instantly become the “Trump Party” regardless of its history, name, or goals.
Trump’s first presidential campaign was in 2000, and he was a candidate in the Reform Party. It’s not like it is something he has never done before.
Regardless, it would be a disaster both for him and the Republicans.
Even a semi-organized effort to get his supporters to write-in Trump might peel enough votes away from the Republican candidate to swing the election.
I think the Republicans might be successful in defeating Trump in the primary. I think he’s lost the advantage of surprise, it’s easier now to predict his moves and counter them, because everyone sort of knows, at least roughly, what he’s going to do next. It seems like the “normal” politicians and the media managed to effectively neutralize the cries of election fraud after the 2022 midterms, and I think that’s largely because they’d seen the playbook.
And I think DeSantis will run, he has a lot of support from the donor class.
I’ve done work ( nothing remotely political ) for three of those mf’s. I’m glad I retired.
Of course, if Trump DOES win the primary, everyone will come flocking back to him. I can hear Rusty Bowers now:
“Sure, the guy tried to defecate on the Constitution and everything I hold dear. Sure, the guy had his goons outside my house with panel trucks with LED signage and bullhorns accusing me of pedophilia while I was trying to comfort my dying daughter in her last days.”
But he’s not a Democrat, so I’m going to vote for him.
I suspect the die-hard Republicans, and of course the MAGA cult, will flock back to him. But I don’t see that he’d get much more than that. Between the investigations and the January 6th hearings he has become a clown show. Now, the flip side of that is that those right-wing folks are the primary ones who vote in the R primaries, so I think that his chances of winning the nomination are much higher than his chances of winning the actual election. (Though I do agree with you that it’s unlikely to be as easy as it was in the past.)
Actually, the way events played out suggests that Trump was maneuvered into picking Pence and believing that it was his own idea (which is how you get a narcissist to do what you want). I’ve long suspected that the people behind the ploy were expecting and hoping that Trump would succumb to one too many hamberders and temper tantrums, paving the way for their preferred candidate to step into the big chair without having to win an election (which would be a challenge for anyone as charisma-deprived as the Whitebread Sepulcher).
Not everyone. Trump was bad enough in 2016 that there were conservatives who refused to support him, even after he was the Republican nominee. And that was before we all saw him in office.
So even if Trump wins the nomination again, I would expect there will be a significant number of Republicans who will either site this election out, pick a conservative third party, or hold their nose and vote for Biden.
The party leaders also have two years to change the primary procedures to make sure Trump doesn’t win them. It’s not like they lack experience in rigging election outcomes.
It may have already been said but the only thing I see Trump doing to bleed his support from Republicans is losing to Joe Biden. They consider that unforgivable but they will back to the hilt whoever comes out of the primary.
It is much too soon to start a thread on the 2024 senatorial election, but next time around many, many Democratic seats are up for grabs. That means the Democrats might lose biggly.
Not too soon, if only because it’s one excellent reason to work over the next three weeks to help ensure Warnock’s re-election in Georgia. It won’t solve the problem you mentioned by itself, but it will help mitigate it.