By “birth control” I mean hormone-based contraceptives and condoms.
I guess I’m asking because it seems like they are all “99%” effective if used properly, particularly with oral contraceptives, but we all know someone who was allegedly using it properly and got pregnant anyways. My buddy was arguing that those people were probably not taking it properly, like taking at 2:00 PM one day and 5:00 the next and 3:00 the next, or taking it on antibiotics. My friend also pointed out that, the people we hear getting pregnant are usually not the most-educated people in the world, and that college-educated people who know how to correctly use the pill never seem to get pregnant. So, if taken properly, is there virtually zero chance that one will get pregnant?
Also, with condoms, we’ve all heard of them breaking, but how likely is that really? What if you use both the pill correctly and a condom correctly? Is there anyway to figure out your statistical chance of getting pregnant then?
This chart on the FDA website gives typical and lowest expected (what you’d get with consistent, proper use) pergnancy rates for various forms of contraception.
Ah, see, those numbers actually seem to be rather scarily high. 14% for condoms? By that logic, I feel like I should know more people who got pregnant.
Let’s say I wanted to see the likelihood of pregnancy by combining two methods. Could I just multiply their individual failure rates together to get the combined failure rate?
That’s from the middle column, reflecting “typical use”, where mistakes and accidents occur. The right hand column shows the lowest expected rate of pregnancy (perfect use), which is 3%
Combining forms of birth control does offer additional protection, but you can’t logically get more than 99.something% effective.
The other scary fact to consider is that women are only fertile a few days a month. So every single one of those condom failures took place during those few days when the woman was fertile - chances are good that for any one woman, the condom really “failed” (ie, let sperm into her vagina) more than that, but was never jotted down as a failure because she couldn’t get pregnant from it anyway. Why does this matter? Condom failure also means increased risk from STD’s, and if you don’t get pregnant from it, you might not be aware of the failure and be aware of your exposure.
Plus, of course, it means that the failure rate is much, much higher than 14%, but most of those failures don’t result in a pregnancy. Only the failures during her fertile 3-4 days that result in a pregnancy are counted. As “birth control”, this makes sense. As a seminal/vaginal barrier, the failure rate is much, much higher.
WhyNot,
who conceived her .0000001% child using a spermicidal sponge, additional spermicide and a condom, which appeared to be intact after the act. The very first time she had consensual sex. :eek:
I see sterilization is listed as still being possible to conceive. Is this from doctor screwups, and from guys with vasectomies not waiting long enough? or not getting checked after the required 12 weeks?
Yes, all of those, AND it’s possible, though rare, for the severed and cauterized ends of the vas deferens to heal themselves well enough back together to allow sperm through. Same with tubal ligations for women. My understanding is that this was more common with older techniques.
Probably TMI, but when I had it done last fall at PPH(reasonable and experienced) they had different advice as to wait times than any other place doing it. First they did the cut, tie, cauterize, and hide the ends. Then, they require that you wait 12 weeks to get tested for sterility instead of the 2 weeks, since in their experience if the ends dont regrow by 11 weeks they wont regrow.
Fry
The failure rate is probably much lower, but that assumes all sexual contact was reported. Since plenty of children do not have the apparent father that number is going to be permanently skewed.
Not to mention people lie about what they use and how well they use it. I doubt very many people lie to say that they use birth control less often or less effectively than they actually do.
When I had my tubal last year, I was offered two options: a paper-clip-type thing on my tubes, or cauterization (burning them; my doc said it’s like frying bacon extra-crispy. :eek: Thanks, doc.) The first option is more reversible, and often advised for younger women who might change their minds later.
I opted for the second, and the failure rate for that is about 1 in 2,000, according to the documention I received, IIRC. The only option that was more surefire was removing my ovaries or my uterus, and that seemed a bit extreme.
If I was american indian and named my kids [if they had lived] they would be Ortho Novum don’t work, Orthonovum dont work, condom broke and You have got to be shitting me, I had my tubes tied in 1984… [the last one was in '96].
And I was using the pill correctly and not on antibiotics…
Unfortunately, I am exceedingly fertile apparently …
Although with PCOS and other issues, I really do wish I had convinced the doc to do a panhistoophrectomy. I adore seasonale and having that time of year where I go into labor and pass blood clots for a week in agony.
Exactly. There may be corrective factors applied, but if you consider that
(a) a vast number of instances of unintended pregnancy are going to involve one or both of the protagonists being under extreme pressure to explain why the hell they/their female partner got pregnant (from parents, the other protagonist etc), and
(b) an amazing number of people seem to take the risk of having sex while not wanting pregnancy, without contraception,
it is a dead certainty that lots of people lie and say they used a condom and it broke, or they were on the pill when they weren’t or whatever. And having made the lie, like all lies it’s better if you are consistent so people will lie to the people doing surveys as well as to their family etc. Plus no one wants to admit, to either themselves or a disinterested survey person, that they did something stupid.
When I think back to all the bar skanks I’ve slept with over the years using only a condom…I shudder to think I had a 14% of ending up dealing with them for 18 more years. Thank god I made it out of that phase.
It seems like these studies are really poor. For one, a year’s worth of sex is never defined anywhere. It should be done by sexual encounter, and compared with no contraception by sexual encounter. Any other comparison is poor science, and nearly worthless.
