I agree. He won’t serve time. If, hypothetically, he’s indicted and tried and convicted, Biden will want to offer a pardon. And that’s not necessarily the worst course of action. (But pardoning Donald before he gets indicted and tried and convicted, WOULD be a mistake in my view. That’s another thread, maybe.)
In all the scenarios floating around, the one that I’m most concerned about is “vindictive Donald decides to use the nukes.” As everyone has pointed out, there are no more Adults in the Room. There is no one, so far as I can see, who would stop him from taking out whatever part of the USA on which he’s currently focusing his petulant wrath.
I am hoping that some strong reporting on this will be made public soon. If there is some mechanism in place that would keep him from visiting his rage at having been humiliated on the nation and the world, I’d like to know what it is.
I could be okay with that, IFF the pardon is granted the day AFTER he begins serving his sentence.
And then the next state where he’s committed his crime spree gets to prosecute him, etc.
WRT him pulling an Après nous, le déluge act on January 19, I’m confident his lame duck cabinet would be clearheaded enough to play the 25th Amendment card.
No Adults but there are a lot of self-serving assholes. If/when Trump is ever in that position, I can see some of them throwing him under the bus to save their own skins. There are a lot of former staffers who have been doing that after they’ve left the White House (especially when lucrative book deals are a possibility), and I can see that process accelerating if they think they might as well take anything of value while they still can.
Chelsea Clinton was reportedly friends with Ivanka, though that relationship apparently soured during the 2016 campaign for very obvious reasons.
I doubt there will be any federal charge pursued against Trump - justified or not, it sets a disturbing precedent.
But state charges - well, President Biden might be inclined to honor the sovereignty of the states were they to take up any cases against the former incumbent.
Best case scenario: he’s convicted of tax evasion or whatever and is sentenced to house arrest with NO social media. A comprehensive gag order which is doable because there would be no reason for him to have any privilege denied to a prison inmate.
However, we could still, and should, prosecute his coterie of cronies to the max, Bill Barr chief among them. For this, there is precedent.
Lock 'em all up. At least, all the rest of 'em.
ETA: If Trump flees the country and is convicted of massive tax evasion, fine. The IRS can confiscate all his real properties in the United States. He can’t take all that with him.
If there is to be any leniency regarding Trump and Federal crimes of which he might be convicted, I would hope for a commutation of sentence rather than an outright pardon. While I do understand the reasoning behind the decision, I still believe one of the biggest mistakes of the late 20th Century was Ford’s pardon of Nixon. It set the stage for beliefs and practices in which Presidents really do seem to be above the law, and has led, IMHO to too many actions for which Presidents suffered no real consequences (would Iran-Contra have happened had there been the example of a convicted Nixon in recent memory?).
Enough with, “moving on for the good of the country.” How about we hold powerful people to account for their corruption for the good of the country?
Not to worry. In true Trumpian fashion, he’ll quickly lose interest in anything except the nuances of set decoration, female presenters’ costumes and his own flagship show, which will consist almost entirely of Trump interviewing himself about how very smart he is and how great America was during his presidency, with occasional visits from family members talking about how very smart he is and how great America was during his presidency.
The whole enterprise will fold like a cheap lawn chair within 18 months, in a cloud of lawsuits filed by pissed-off third-party investors left holding the bag.
I don’t think he’ll ever serve a day of jail time. He’s good at staying out of jail, he was a criminal and a charlatan for a long time before he was elected President. He knows how to insulate himself.
And furthermore, if the IRS takes civil action against him, that will still stand, un-pardoned and un-commuted. The resulting confiscation of all his properties in the United States to pay his back taxes, interest, and penalties will still remain.
I could stand for that. But yes, commute (if anything) rather than pardon.
ETA: And he can still rot in jail for his state crimes in New York.
Perhaps tangentially related to Trump, but the following article was a fascinating read. It concerns the supposed factory Foxconn, a Taiwanese electronics behemoth, was going to build in Wisconsin. The whole thing has not really amounted to a hill of beans; at this point, it’s starting to look like a gigantic swindle: