The outcome of the election will become clear, and I will accept it either way, sometime immediately follow the close of polling stations in all of the Central Time Zone states.
Romney must will Florida and needs Ohio to win. If he loses Ohio he’d better hope that some combination of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa breaks his way. If they don’t that’s that. And I betcha he and the President know it.
If the President gets through the midwest with ~200 electoral votes in his pocket it’s over. The west coast (CA, OR, WA) represent 74 electoral votes (not including 4 from Hawaii and 6 from Nevada) for Team Blue while only locking in 3 in Alaska for Team Red. Take all of that into account and Obama needs to get 186 EV from ET, CT and MT to lock it up.
So look to FL, PA, MI, OH, and WI. By about 9PM Eastern we should know what’s going to happen.
If it’s impossible for him to lose, maybe the funds he has can be better spent in the Congressional races.
I respond to what people write. If the say “never”, I accept that. If they don’t want people to think that’s what they believe, then they shouldn’t write it. And given that these same people generally have not accepted the 2004 results, I see no reason to doubt their sincerity.
Indeed. I recall an interview with GHWB about the 1992 election where he said that he knew he’d lost when the first returns came back from the east coast.
I’d put it somewhere around 1 or 3. I’ll assume that the networks and the Obama campaign would be getting pretty much the same nationwide realtime information and would reach a conclusion around the same time. It would be a toss-up between which of them announced it first.
Since I will pay very little attention on the night of the election and still go to bed at my normal time, I expect that by the time I know who won the next morning, it will be all over and done with. I accept it when it happens. Refusing to accept what is doesn’t change reality.
Any calculation of Obama’s odds includes the ground game. He doesn’t pull a no-show, like he did in the first debate. He follows through. Otherwise, Mittpocalypse.
Kind of stuck on what “accept” means. Does it mean I shrug and say “Well, fair and square, they won.” when “fair and square” was the one thing the Pubbies worked so hard to avoid? From the national Stomp Out the Vote campaign, to various shenanigans with early voter rules, the Pubbies have shown they have no shame whatever when it comes to elections.
Obama not only has to win, he has to win so convincingly that he covers the “cheat spread”. Nate Silver has that at about one to two percent dropoff from voter suppression drives. If he’s right, and I guess he knows his shit, that’s one or two percent Obama has to get extra!
Now, of course, if he does manage to overcome all the lies, cheating and money to win anyway, I’ll probably accept that. If “giggling fits” counts as “acceptance”.
Did anyone double check those ballots cast for Washington in Prince George’s County, Maryland. I was always suspicious that PGC didn’t go quite the way the exit polls indicated.
